Nrog Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam poob qis dua 20% txog rau lub xyoo no, cov tub ua lag luam tab tom nrhiav qee cov xov xwm zoo - thiab nws yuav yog los ntawm tus kws tshuaj ntsuam Wall Street tseem ceeb uas hais tias kev lag luam dais tam sim no tuaj yeem xaus rau qee lub sijhawm nyob ib puag ncig St. Patrick's Day.
Hauv kev xam phaj nrog Bloomberg TV, Mike Wilson, Equity Strategist thiab Chief Investment Officer rau Morgan Stanley kwv yees tias kev lag luam dais hauv Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam tuaj yeem xaus rau thaum ntxov xyoo 2023. Cov neeg lag luam tau sau tseg vim Wilson, uas feem ntau tsis ntseeg txog kev ua lag luam. , yog teev nyob rau hauv No.
"Peb xav tias thaum kawg lub lag luam dais yuav dhau qee zaum hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg," Wilson tau hais hauv kev tshaj tawm.
Txhawm rau npaj koj lub tswv yim peev 2023, xav txog txuam nrog tus kws pab tswv yim nyiaj txiag dawb.
Ntawm qhov tod tes, Wilson yuav zoo li tau txais kev pom zoo uas yog qhov tsis sib xws ntawm lwm tus kws tshuaj ntsuam Morgan Stanley tau qhia rau cov neeg siv khoom. Hauv ib lub caij nplooj ntoos zeeg lig ntawm MorganStanley.com, Lisa Shalett, lub tuam txhab Tus Thawj Saib Xyuas Kev Lag Luam rau Kev Tswj Nyiaj Txiag, tau sau tias, "Morgan Stanley Pawg Neeg Lag Luam Thoob Ntiaj Teb ntseeg tias lub lag luam dais no nyob deb dhau lawm."
Wilson hais txog S&P 500's 200-lub lim tiam txav nruab nrab raws li qhov taw qhia tseem ceeb. Qhov taw qhia ntawd sawv ntawm 3,612 thaum lub Kaum Hlis lig. Thaum Lub Kaum Ib Hlis 30, S&P 500 tau kaw saum toj no 200-lub lim tiam txav nruab nrab rau thawj zaug txij li lub Plaub Hlis 7. Ntev npaum li qhov ntsuas tseem nyob saum qhov nruab nrab, cov khoom lag luam tuaj yeem rov qab mus rau siab txog 4,150. Yog tias qhov ntsuas tau poob los ntawm 200-lub lim tiam teeb meem, txawm li cas los xij, Wilson tau hais tias, cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum coj qhov ntawd los ua lub cim pib muag.
Raws li tau hais hauv Markets Insider, Wilson tau hais tias, "Lub 200-lub lim tiam kev txav mus los nruab nrab yog ib qho kev txhawb nqa muaj zog heev rau cov khoom lag luam, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog thaum tsis muaj kev lag luam tawm uas peb tsis muaj, tseem."
S&P 500 tau nce siab thaum Lub Kaum Hli, nce ntawm 2% thiab 4% ntawm cov xov xwm tau txais txiaj ntsig zoo. Tom qab pib lub xyoo ua lag luam siab txog 4,800, qhov Performance index poob qis me ntsis hauv qab 3,500 hauv thawj lub lis piam ntawm Lub Kaum Hli ua ntej nce mus txog 3,800. Thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis nws nce mus rau sab qaum teb ntawm 4,000. Ntev npaum li qhov kev nce qib tam sim no nyob ruaj khov, Wilson tau hais tias, kev lag luam dais yuav xaus rau thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2023.
Nyob rau nruab nrab ntawm tam sim no thiab tom qab ntawd, txawm li cas los xij, los ntawm kev muag khoom hnub so nrog rau cov txiaj ntsig ntawm plaub lub quarter thiab xyoo kawg. Lub caij so muag tsis muaj zog tuaj yeem nyob rau hauv qhov kev txiav tawm, vim cov khw muag khoom twb tau txo qis cov khoom muag ntau dhau vim cov neeg siv khoom tau hloov rov qab mus yuav cov kev pabcuam ntau dua thiab cov khoom tsawg dua vim qhov kev sib kis ntawm COVID-19 tau qeeb.
Yog tias qhov ntawd yuav tshwm sim, Wilson tau hais tias, cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum tau tsom mus rau qhov tseem ceeb, xws li kev muag khoom thiab cov nyiaj tau los, es tsis yog cov cim qhia xws li 200-lub lim tiam mus nruab nrab.
Yog tias Wilson yog txoj cai thiab cov khoom lag luam xa S&P 500 nce mus rau ntau dua 4,100 (nws tam sim no nyob ntawm 4,046), qhov ntawd yuav yog qhov nce ntxiv ntawm Morgan Stanley qhov kwv yees tias qhov ntsuas yuav nyob ze rau qib 3,900 thaum Lub Rau Hli.
Wilson hais rau Bloomberg tias "Peb tej zaum yuav poob qis dua li feem ntau rau qhov kev pom zoo xyoo tom ntej," Wilson hais rau Bloomberg. "Tab sis peb xav tias qhov kev sib tw tactical no yuav loj txaus los sim thiab pivot thiab pauv nws."
kab hauv qab
Mike Wilson, Equity Strategist thiab Chief Investment Officer rau Morgan Stanley, hais tias lub lag luam dais tuaj yeem xaus rau qee lub sijhawm hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2023. Nws ua raws nws qhov kev tshuaj xyuas tawm ntawm S&P 500 200-lub lim tiam mus nruab nrab.
Cov lus qhia rau ntiav tus kws pab tswv yim nyiaj txiag
Duab credit: ©iStock.com/Dilok Klaisataporn
Tus ncej Sab saum toj Morgan Stanley tus kws tshaj lij hais tias Qhov no yog Thaum Lub Lag Luam Dais 'Yuav Ua Li Cas' tshwm sim thawj zaug SmartAsset Blog.
Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/top-morgan-stanley-strategist-says-171038502.html