Lub sijhawm rau Fed tshaj tawm yeej ntawm kev nce nqi? Tsis tau

Lub Kaum Ob Hlis lub hli poob qis hauv cov neeg siv khoom lag luam tau txais Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve ib kauj ruam los ze zog rau kev ntaus nqi nyiaj txiag, txawm hais tias lawv tsis zoo li yuav qhia txog kev txo txoj cai txhua lub sijhawm sai sai.

Qhov ntsuas qhov ntsuas nyiaj txiag tseem ceeb poob 0.1% rau lub hli, raws li kev cia siab ntawm kev lag luam thiab qhov poob loj tshaj plaws txij li lub Plaub Hlis 2020.

Tab sis yog CPI rau txhua yam khoom tseem yog 6.5% ua ntej ntawm qhov chaw nws yog ib lub xyoo dhau los, lub arc tau qis qis qis - los ntawm nws qhov siab tshaj plaws nyob ib ncig ntawm 9% txhua xyoo tus nqi nyob rau lub Rau Hli 2022 mus rau qhov poob qis tsis tu ncua thaum muaj kev poob qis hauv cov nqi roj thiab qee qhov hnyav. tus paj laum nce los ntawm Fed.

Cov lus nug tam sim no yog ntau npaum li cas pov thawj cov neeg tsim cai yuav tsum pom ua ntej lawv hle lawv ko taw tawm ntawm tus nres.

"Yog tias lawv tab tom ua qhov kev kwv yees, uas yog qhov lawv yuav tsum tau ua, nws tau hais tawm tsam tias lawv qhov kev nce qib yuav tsum tau xaus sai sai no," said Mark Zandi, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ntawm Moody's Analytics. “Tsis muaj ib yam dab tsi uas tsis nyiam txog daim ntawv tshaj tawm no. Inflation yuav tuaj ntawm no. "

Dean Baker, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag laus ntawm Lub Chaw rau Kev Tshawb Fawb Txog Kev Lag Luam thiab Txoj Cai, tau hais ntau dua. Hauv tweet, Baker hais tias nws yog, "Lub Sijhawm rau Fed tshaj tawm yeej thiab nres tus nqi nce mus!" Nws hais txog qhov poob peb lub hlis hauv cov kev pab cuam nce nqi tsawg dua cov nqi vaj tse raws li pov thawj tias kev nce nyiaj nce ntxiv.

Tab sis xav txog yuav ua li cas cov tuam txhab lag luam hauv nruab nrab tau nruj txij li pib nce nqi nce rov qab rau lub Peb Hlis 2022, thiab ceev faj npaum li cas lawv tau saib xyuas cov ntaub ntawv cais tawm raws li ib feem ntawm kev nthuav dav, qhov zoo li yuav yeej tam sim no zoo li nyob deb.

Tom qab tag nrho, ob qho tib si hauv xov xwm thiab cov ntsiab lus (ex-khoom noj khoom haus thiab lub zog) kev nce nqi - nce 0.3% rau lub hli thiab 5.7% ntawm lub xyoo - tseem yog txoj kev ua ntej ntawm Fed lub hom phiaj 2%. Thawj Tswj Hwm Jerome Powell tau hais tsis ntev los no tias cov kev pabcuam tsawg dua qhov chaw nyob ntawm kev nce nqi yog qhov tseem ceeb rau kev txiav txim siab vim tias tus nqi xauj tsev yuav zoo li ebb tom qab xyoo no.

Tab sis nws thiab nws cov npoj yaig kuj tau hais txog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev ceev lawv txoj kev tiv thaiv thiab tau hais tias lawv pom muaj kev phom sij ntau dua los ntawm kev txo qis dua li txuas ntxiv thawb nyuaj, txawm tias nws txhais tau tias kev sib tsoo kev lag luam mus rau ze-tsawg.

Qhov Fed tau mus rau nws tam sim no yog lub lag luam muaj zog ua haujlwm uas tau tiv thaiv tus nqi siab dua. Tab sis qhov ntawd yog ib qho koob hmoov thiab kev foom tsis zoo, vim tias cov nyiaj ua haujlwm tau nce ntxiv thiab hem kom xa nyiaj nce siab dua.

"Yog tias koj tuaj yeem txhim kho qhov kev poob qis hauv kev nce nqi yam tsis muaj kev cuam tshuam rau kev ua lag luam, qhov ntawd yog 'Goldilocks' soft-landing," said Randy Frederick, tus thawj coj ntawm kev lag luam thiab derivatives rau Charles Schwab. "Qhov ntawd yog yam peb tau pom nrog cov ntaub ntawv peb tau txais lub lim tiam dhau los thiab nrog kev nce nqi hnub no."

Kaum Ob Hlis nonfarm payrolls qhia tau pom tias muaj 223,000 qhov nce hauv kev ua haujlwm thiab kev poob qis txhua xyoo hauv cov nyiaj tau los nruab nrab ib teev nce mus rau 4.7%. Frederick cia siab tias Fed thaum nws tom ntej yuav ntsib Lub Ib Hlis 31-Lub Ob Hlis. 1 kom nco ntsoov cov ntaub ntawv tab sis tsis txhob cog lus rau kev hloov hauv txoj cai.

"Lawv yuav lees paub tias cov ntaub ntawv tau txhim kho, uas nws muaj. Tab sis kuv tsis xav tias lawv xav taw tes rau qhov yuav tshwm sim nyob rau hauv rau lub lis piam, "Frederick tau hais, hais txog Pawg Neeg Saib Xyuas Kev Lag Luam qhib hauv qab no txij lub Peb Hlis 15-16.

Kev lag luam yog tus nqi nyob ze-tseem ceeb - 93.2% thaum nruab nrab hnub Thursday - tias FOMC rov yuav nqis los ntawm nws qhov nce, mus rau 0.25 feem pua ​​​​ntawm Lub Ob Hlis 1, raws li CME Group. Qhov kev cia siab yog rau lwm lub quarter-point hauv lub Peb Hlis, tom qab ntawd ib ntus ua ntej pawg neeg sib tw ntau npaum li ib nrab ntawm feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov nyiaj tau txais txiaj ntsig ua ntej lub xyoo xaus.

Philadelphia Fed Thawj Tswj Hwm Patrick Harker tau hais rau hnub Thursday nws nyiam Fed nqis mus rau lub quarter-point nce thiab tom qab ntawd nres. Nws cov phooj ywg cov neeg tsim cai tau hais ruaj khov tias lawv tsis pom muaj kev txo nqi ua ntej hauv 2023.

Tab sis kev ua lag luam yog trading txwv tsis pub.

Kev taug kev tom qab lub Peb Hlis lub rooj sib tham yuav muab sijhawm rau FOMC los xav txog qhov cuam tshuam ntawm txhua qhov kev nce ntxiv, uas yuav yog cuaj hauv tag nrho, tag nrho 4.75 feem pua ​​​​cov ntsiab lus, yog tias tus nqi lag luam raug.

Dab tsi tsis xav tau yog ib qho kev qhia ntxov ntxov ntawm kev yeej ntawm kev nce nqi.

Simona Mocuta, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ntawm State Street Global Advisors hais tias "Kuv tsis xav tias lawv nyob ze rau kev tshaj tawm yeej," "Lawv yuav ceev faj heev hauv kev hais lus tias txawm tias lawv yuav poob mus rau [lub quarter-point mus ncig], uas lees paub qhov kev txhim kho hauv cov ntaub ntawv. Tab sis kuv yuav tsis cia siab tias lub suab thiab cov lus uas tawm ntawm pawg neeg yuav hloov pauv mus rau qee lub sijhawm. Lawv tab tom saib qhov zoo dua kom muaj kev nyab xeeb dua li thov txim dua. "