(Bloomberg) - Tom qab poob ntau heev, kev lag luam kev lag luam tsis hloov pauv tseem nce ntxiv thiab cov tub lag luam tau maj nrawm rau thawj koom ruam ntawm kev nqis peev ntxiv, tab sis cov tub ua lag luam pov-hauv-tus- phuam lub sijhawm yuav tsis tuaj txog.
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Cov khoom lag luam Asmeskas tau hloov pauv ntau rau hnub Monday tom qab poob ntau dua 9% hauv ob lub lis piam dhau los. Tom qab lub sijhawm no ntawm kev muag khoom tsis txaus ntseeg, lub sijhawm luv luv yog qhov tshwm sim, lub ntsiab lus ntawm cov neeg ua lag luam capitulation - qhov kev muag khoom loj heev uas feem ntau pab kev lag luam hauv qab - tej zaum yuav yog me ntsis tawm.
Tseeb tiag, Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson pom qhov "tsis tshua muaj tshwm sim" rau qhov ntsuas S&P 500 Index los tom qab xyoo no lossis ntxov tom ntej ntawm 3,000 txog 3,400 point-theem. Qhov ntawd txhais tau tias 13% downside ntawm qhov nruab nrab.
"Kev saib tag nrho cov dej ntws tawm qhia tias kev tsis txaus ntseeg tseem tsis tau tshwm sim," Bank of America cov kws tshaj lij hais rau cov neeg siv khoom hnub Friday. "Peb xav tias muaj kev mob ntau dua rau kev lag luam thiab tsis pom qhov qis qis kom txog thaum cov txiaj ntsig siab tshaj." lawv ntxiv, hais txog kev cia siab tias Asmeskas cov paj laum thiab cov nqi qiv yuav nce ntxiv.
BofA cov kws tshaj lij tau hais tias txawm hais tias lawv tau saib xyuas qhov kev xav tau zoo, Bull & Bear Indicator, qhia txog kev poob qis heev - qib uas feem ntau qhia txog kev rov qab los - tag nrho cov peev nyiaj lag luam tseem tsis tau thim rov qab.
Tseem muaj lwm cov cim qhia ntawm lub sijhawm bounce.
Ua ntej, tus txheeb ze lub zog Performance index (RSI) yog 0-100 lub zog ntsuas ntsuas yog tias kev lag luam muag dhau - lossis overbought, raws li rooj plaub. S&P 500 Index's RSI tam sim no qhia txog ib lub hlis twg ntawm cov khoom lag luam nyob ntawm 30 lossis qis dua, ib theem pom tias yog ib qho kev muag khoom ntau dhau. Qhov theem ntawd tau cim lub sijhawm luv luv yav dhau los. Thaum xyoo 2020 muaj kev sib kis thoob ntiaj teb-lub sijhawm muag tawm, 72% ntawm cov khoom lag luam tau tshaj tawm ntau ntau.
Tom qab ntawd saib cov khoom lag luam volatility. Lub VIX Performance index, lub npe hu ua kev ntshai ntsuas ntawm Wall Street, tau nce tsis tu ncua nyob rau lub asthiv tsis ntev los no tab sis tseem yuav luag 20% qis dua xyoo no. Lub caij no, Asmeskas kev lag luam hauv "muab" cov kev xaiv - cov khoom lag luam tso cai rau cov tswv lag luam muag khoom vaj khoom tsev thaum qee tus nqi raug ua txhaum cai - yog qhov siab tshaj txij li kev muag khoom thoob ntiaj teb. Qhov ntawd qhia tau tias cov tub ua lag luam 'kev mob siab rau hedge ntxiv downside tab sis kuj tias qhov kev ntshai tshaj plaws yuav nyob ze.
Thaum kawg, qhov sib txawv thiab lub zog ntsuas yog nyob rau hauv liab nyob rau hauv tag nrho cov loj Tshuag benchmarks. Cov kev ntsuas xws li RSI thiab Bollinger bands txhawb qhov kev xav ntawm qhov ua tau zoo.
Rau Morgan Stanley cov kws tshaj lij suav nrog Jonathan Garner, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's kawg-Lub Yim Hli hawkish cov lus los ntawm Jackson Hole lub rooj sib tham thiab lub Cuaj Hli cov ntaub ntawv qhia txog US CPI uptick ua kom nrawm nrawm. Hauv tsab ntawv sau hnub tim 20 Lub Cuaj Hli, lawv tau sau cov xwm txheej no tau hais tias "qhov yuav tshwm sim uas qhov kev sib tw classic tuaj yeem tsim, feem ntau yuav tshwm sim rau lub Kaum Hli."
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