Peb lub cim qhia tias US vaj tse boom yog petering tawm - Quartz

Cov neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev tab tom tso tawm ntawm lub US tsev lag luam raws li tus paj laum ntau dua nqi lawv tawm

Cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam - nrog rau cov ntaub ntawv pov thawj tsis txaus ntseeg - taw qhia txog kev poob qis hauv vaj tse uas tshwm sim los ntawm kev sib kis. Qhov nruab nrab cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj tau nce mus txog ntau dua 5% los ntawm ib ncig ntawm 3% thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo. Cov nqi siab dua lawm dampened lub refinancing boom, thiab tam sim no lawv tab tom thawb tawm thawj cov neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev uas tsis muaj kev ncaj ncees ntau npaum li cov tswv tsev tam sim no lossis cov neeg ua lag luam hauv tsev. Kev them nqi vaj tsev qis dua yog thawb ib nrab ntawm Asmeskas tus tswv tsev los kua muagRaws li kev tshawb fawb Zillow tsis ntev los no.

Nov yog peb lub cim qhia tias kev lag luam vaj tsev txias txias:

Daim ntawv thov qiv nyiaj yuav tsev

Nqi tsev daim ntawv thov hauv Asmeskas poob los ntawm 6.5% hauv lub lis piam xaus rau Lub Rau Hli 3, mus rau nws qib qis tshaj plaws hauv 22 xyoo, raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Nyiaj Txiag (MBA) tau tshaj tawm hnub no.

"Kev yuav khoom lag luam tau raug kev txom nyem los ntawm cov khoom muag hauv vaj tse tsis tu ncua thiab dhia hauv cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj hauv lub hlis dhau los. Cov teeb meem kev them nyiaj tsis zoo no tau nyuaj tshwj xeeb rau cov neeg yuav khoom thawj zaug, "said MBA's Joel Kan.

Kev xav tau kev ncig xyuas hauv tsev poob qis

Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index-uas ntsuas kev thov rau kev ncig xyuas hauv tsev los ntawm Redfin cov neeg sawv cev-poob 9% xyoo dhau xyoo thaum kawg ntawm lub Tsib Hlis. Raws li cov neeg muag khoom tau lees paub qhov kev poob qis, ntau tshaj li ib ntawm tsib tau poob lawv cov nqi.

"Thaum peb cia siab tias tus nqi hauv tsev yuav poob qis, peb tsis xav tias tus nqi yuav poob ntau hauv lub tebchaws," said Redfin Economics 'Chen Zhao. "Rau cov neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev sim txiav txim siab lub sijhawm zoo tshaj plaws rau xyoo no, qhov txiaj ntsig tseem ceeb ntawm kev tos yog tias yuav muaj kev sib tw tsawg dua li cov khoom pib tsim."

Cov tsev nyob ntev dua hauv kev ua lag luam

Lub caij no, cov kws tsim vaj tsev hais rau John Burns Real Estate Consulting, lub tuam txhab tshawb fawb hauv tsev, tias kev tsim cov txheeb cais thoob plaws lub rooj tsavxwm tau poob qis hauv lub tuam txhab May homebuilder daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas.

Ib Austin, TX homebuilder hais tias tias nyob rau qee qhov chaw hauv nroog cov tsev ua tiav tau siv ib hlis los muag piv rau cov teev yav dhau los, thiab tias "kev ua lag luam yog qhov tseeb."

Ib tus neeg tsim khoom hauv Harrisburg, Pa. tau tshaj tawm tias ploj lawm lawv lub hom phiaj muag los ntawm 50% hauv lub Tsib Hlis, thaum lwm qhov, hauv Nashville, hais tias feem ntau cov neeg tsim khoom tab tom txiav kev xav txog vaj tse pib - tsev tsim yam tsis muaj kev ruaj ntseg - los ntawm 15%. Lwm tus xav kom cov neeg yuav khoom tso nyiaj ntau dua vim tias cov paj laum ntau dua yog txiav rau cov neeg yuav khoom cov peev nyiaj.