Qhov no yog lub limtiam zoo rau cov lej nyiaj txiag, tab sis seb nws puas tuaj yeem nyob ntev yog cov lus nug loj

Muaj xov xwm zoo tshaj rau hnub Friday rau kev nce nqi, vim tias tus nqi ntshuam poob ntau dua li qhov xav tau thiab coj qee qhov kev xav tau ntau rau cov neeg siv khoom.

Daim ntawv tshaj tawm capped tawm lub limtiam kuj zoo siab heev rau cov neeg txhawj xeeb txog kev nce nqi - thiab "kuj" yog lo lus ua haujlwm - raws li Asmeskas tau nyob rau lub xyoo no kom xa ntau tshaj $ 4 trillion ntawm cov khoom thiab cov kev pabcuam xyoo no, raws li qhov tseeb Bureau of Economic. Cov ntaub ntawv tsom xam.

Nrog cov neeg Amelikas twb tau them cov nqi loj rau zaub mov, lub zog thiab lwm yam khoom siv hauv lawv lub neej txhua hnub, kev so yog qhov zoo siab tos txais. Tom qab tag nrho, tus nqi ntshuam txhua hli poob ntawm 1.4% tsuas yog thawj xyoo no, thiab qhov nce xyoo dhau los tseem ntau dua 8.8%.

Cov xov xwm ntawd tau ua raws li cov lus ceeb toom ua ntej lub lim tiam uas ob leeg lag luam wholesale thiab muag khoom nqi nce abated rau lub hli. Tus nqi tsim tawm tau poob qis 0.5%, thiab cov neeg siv khoom siv nrog rau cov khoom noj thiab roj tau tiaj tus, ob qho tib si tus lej tshuav nyiaj ntau heev rau cov swb hauv feem ntau ntawm lub zog.

Cov neeg tau pom zoo: Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Ncaj Ncees New York kev tshawb fawb tau tshaj tawm hnub Monday qhia tau hais tias cov neeg siv khoom xav tias kev nce nqi yuav nyob siab tab sis tsis yog ntau npaum li lub hli dhau los. Hnub Friday, Lub Tsev Kawm Ntawv Qib Siab Michigan cov neeg siv khoom xav tau kev soj ntsuam - uas nws nce thiab nqis yuav caij nrog cov nqi ntawm lub twj tso kua mis - tau siab dua li qhov xav tau, txawm hais tias tseem tshuav cov ntaub ntawv qis qis hauv lub Rau Hli.

Ua ke, cov lej yog vim li cas rau qhov tsawg kawg yog qhov kev cia siab me ntsis. Tab sis tej zaum nws yog qhov zoo los muab exuberance tuav.

Tus neeg siv khoom tus nqi ntsuas yog tseem nce 8.5% los ntawm ib xyoo dhau los, Thaum lub sij hawm tus tsim nqi index tau nce 9.8% nyob rau tib lub sijhawm.

Krishna Guha, uas yog tus thawj coj thoob ntiaj teb txoj cai thiab lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab rau Evercore ISI, tau ceeb toom rau hauv daim ntawv teev cov neeg siv khoom ntawm CPI tias, "thaum tsab ntawv ceeb toom zoo ib yam nrog kev xav tias kev nce nyiaj txiag thaum kawg yuav tau nce siab, qhov no tsuas yog ib daim ntawv tshaj tawm xwb."

Cov lus pom zoo sib xws tuaj rau hnub Friday los ntawm Richmond Federal Reserve Thawj Tswj Hwm Thomas Barkin. Cov Central bank official hais rau CNBC hais tias cov xov xwm kev nce nqi yog "zoo siab txais tos heev," tab sis hais ntxiv tias nws tsis pom muaj laj thawj los thim rov qab rau cov paj laum uas qee tus kws lag luam ntshai yuav rub US mus rau kev lag luam poob qis.

"Muaj txoj hauv kev ntev heev uas yuav mus ua ntej Fed yuav xav tias nws muaj pov thawj txaus txaus tias kev nce nyiaj nce nruab nrab kom tsis txhob nce nqi," Guha ntxiv.

Fed thiab cov tub ua lag luam yuav tau saib lub lim tiam tom ntej ntawm qhov cuam tshuam ntau npaum li cas tau ua rau kev siv nyiaj.

Hnub Wednesday ua ntej tsab ntawv ceeb toom los ntawm Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Lag Luam xav tias yuav nthuav tawm me ntsis 0.2% xov xwm nce rau Lub Xya Hli hauv cov khw muag khoom muag tom qab 1% nce hauv Lub Rau Hli, raws li FactSet. Daim ntawv tshaj tawm tsis raug kho rau kev nce nqi.

Txawm li cas los xij, muaj ntau txoj kev xav txog qhov twg cov lej tuaj yeem tsaws.

Citigroup tau hais tias nws cov ntaub ntawv credit card qhia tias muaj peev xwm poob 1.1% rau lub hli, thaum Bank of America tau hais tias nws pom qhov txo qis 0.2%, txawm hais tias tswj pab pawg kev siv nyiaj - tsis suav nrog ntau hom kev hloov pauv - tej zaum yuav tau nce 0.9%.

Fed cov tub ceev xwm yuav saib xyuas kom pom qhov sib txawv loj dua li cas kev nce nqi cuam tshuam rau Main Street.

Joseph Brusuelas, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ntawm RSM tau hais tias "Nws tshwm sim tias qhov siab tshaj plaws hauv kev nce nqi yog nyob rau hauv qhov chaw,"

Txawm li cas los xij, nws tau hais tias lub lim tiam no cov lej yuav ua tau me ntsis los cuam tshuam Fed lub hom phiaj ntawm stomping inflation down to the central bank's 2% target.

Nws tau hais tias "Kuv xav tias kev nce nyiaj hauv Lub Xya Hli tsis muaj dab tsi los hloov txoj hauv kev ntawm Fed txoj cai, thiab txhua qhov kev xav tias Fed pivot nyob ntawm tes yuav tsum raug tso tseg," nws hais. "Peb nyob rau qee lub hlis deb ntawm qhov muaj peev xwm ua kom pom tseeb thiab ntseeg tau tias kev nce nqi tau zoo ntawm nws txoj kev rov qab mus rau 2% lub hom phiaj uas tam sim no txhais cov nqi ruaj khov."