Qhov no yooj yim, tsis-hws portfolio ua nyiaj hauv txhua lub khw

Tshwj xeeb tshaj yog tias koj xav kom koj cov nyiaj khaws cia mus ua haujlwm thiab ua rau koj nyiaj hauv txhua qhov chaw - booms thiab slumps, crashes thiab manias, deflation thiab inflation, stagflation thiab apocalypse.

Thiab tshwj xeeb tshaj yog tias koj xav tias koj tawm hws txaus ua koj cov nyiaj, tsis xav kom koj cov nyiaj ua rau koj tawm hws ntxiv txhua zaus koj kuaj koj 401 (k).

Kuv nyuam qhuav tshawb xyuas nrog Doug Ramsey, tus thawj tswj hwm kev nqis peev ntawm tuam txhab tswj nyiaj Leuthold & Co. tawm hauv Minnesota. Nws tau taug qab cov ntaub ntawv ntawm ntau yam khoom vaj khoom tsev rov qab 50 xyoo, thiab Kuv tau sau txog nws ua ntej. Tab sis tom qab peb tham thiab nrog qee qhov kev tshuaj xyuas ntxiv, Ramsey tau los nrog kev ua kom zoo rau nws Cov Khoom Muaj Peev Xwm Tsis Muaj Peev Xwm.

Nws tau tsim ib qho zoo dua mousetrap.

Tus thawj AANA cov ntaub ntawv muaj xws li cov nyiaj sib npaug uas tau nqis peev hauv xya lub peev txheej sib txawv: US cov khoom lag luam loj, cov khoom lag luam me me, US 10 Xyoo Nyiaj Txiag sau ntawv, US Real Estate Investment Trusts, International stocks, Commodities and Gold. Nws yog ib qho yooj yim zoo nkauj "tag nrho cov huab cua" portfolio.

Raws li peb tau hais, Ramsey pom tias cov ntaub ntawv yooj yim no, hloov kho ib xyoos ib zaug kom rov qab mus rau qhov sib npaug ntawm qhov hnyav thoob plaws xya lub cuab yeej cuab tam, tau ua tau zoo heev hauv txhua qhov chaw hauv 50 xyoo dhau los. Kev xa rov qab tag nrho ib nrab xyoo pua tau ze li zoo li S&P 500, tab sis nrog ib feem ntawm qhov kev pheej hmoo, thiab tsis muaj kev tuag "poob xyoo lawm." Cov khoom xa rov qab tau ua rau lub npe hu ua "cov ntaub ntawv sib npaug" ntawm 60% Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam thiab 40% Cov Nyiaj Txiag.

Tab sis, raws li tau hais, Ramsey tau txhim kho tam sim no.

Ib qho ntawm nws qhov kev tshawb pom zoo tshaj plaws txog xya qhov khoom vaj khoom tsev no yog tias nyob rau hauv ib xyoos twg koj qhov kev nqis peev zoo tshaj plaws yuav yog ib qho uas tau ua tiav qhov zoo tshaj plaws thib ob xyoo ua ntej. Hauv lwm lo lus, xyoo tas los tus neeg ua yeeb yam nyiaj tau zoo yuav yog tus yeej kub xyoo no.

Yog li kuv nug nws tias yuav ua li cas rau cov ntaub ntawv no yog tias koj hloov nws los ntawm xya qhov sib npaug mus rau yim, kom suav nrog kev nqis peev ob zaug hauv xyoo dhau los cov nyiaj tau los?

Bingo.

Nws twb rov qab los rau kuv lawm. Thiab, khiav cov lej txhua txoj kev rov qab mus rau 1973, nws tau pom tias cov ntaub ntawv no tau ua kom rov qab zoo dua thiab txawm tias muaj kev pheej hmoo tsawg dua. Dab tsi tsis nyiam?

Ntxiv kev nqis peev ntxiv rau xyoo tas los cov cuab yeej cuab tam nyiaj tau los txhawb nqa qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo rov qab los ntawm ib nrab ntawm feem pua ​​​​ntawm ib xyoo.

Tshaj li ib nrab xyoo pua nws txawm ntaus S&P 500
SPX,
-0.76%
rau tag nrho lub sij hawm rov qab los: Thaum ntaus nws mus rau hauv lub kaus mom cocked kom sib xws.

Ntsuas hauv cov nyiaj tas li, lub ntsiab lus hloov kho rau kev nce nqi, cov ntaub ntawv no yuav tau txais qhov nruab nrab rov qab los ntawm 6.1% ib xyoos. S&P 500 thaum lub sijhawm ntawd: 6.0%.

Tab sis qhov kev ua tau zoo tshaj tsib xyoos koj yuav tsum tau nyiaj dhau lub sijhawm ntawd ib nrab xyoo pua los ntawm Ramsey qhov kev txhim kho tag nrho cov khoom vaj khoom tsev yog qhov nce (hauv cov nyiaj tas li) ntawm 3%. Hauv lwm lo lus txawm tias nyob rau hauv qhov xwm txheej phem tshaj koj khaws cia nrog kev nce nqi (tsuas yog).

Qhov kev ua tau zoo tshaj plaws ntawm S&P 500 nyob rau lub sijhawm ntawd? Sim rho tawm 31%. Tsis yog, tiag tiag. Nyob rau hauv nruab nrab-1970s, S&P 500 poob koj ib feem peb ntawm koj lub peev xwm yuav khoom txawm tias koj tuav nws, nyob rau hauv qhov tsis muaj nqi se vaj tse, rau tsib xyoos.

Nyob rau hauv ib nrab xyoo pua, S&P 500 tau poob lub zog yuav khoom nyob rau hauv tsib lub xyoos ntawm ib lub hlis twg ntawm lub sijhawm. (Ib zaug ntxiv, qhov ntawd yog ua ntej cov se thiab cov nqi.) Nws yog ib qho yooj yim rau shrug uas tawm hauv txoj kev xav thiab xav txog lub sij hawm ntev - txog thaum koj yuav tsum ua neej nyob. Raws li kev tshawb fawb tsis tu ncua qhia, feem ntau cov tub ua lag luam ua tsis tau. Lawv muab thiab tso tseg. Feem ntau ntawm lub sijhawm tsis raug. Leej twg tuaj yeem liam lawv? Koj poob nyiaj xyoo dhau ib xyoo, nrog thaj tsam tsis pom qhov kawg?

Yog li $1 nqis peev hauv S&P 500 hauv 1972 yuav tau yuav koj tsawg dua 12 xyoo tom qab, xyoo 1984. Thiab $ 1 nqis peev hauv S&P 500 thaum kawg ntawm 1999 yuav tau yuav koj tsawg dua 13 xyoo tom qab, xyoo 2012. Nrog rau cov nyiaj faib tawm - thiab ua ntej. se thiab nqi.

Ntawm Ramsey xya lub cuab tam, xyoo tas los cov khoom muaj txiaj ntsig nyiaj tau los yog kub (yog, yog, kuv paub, kub yuav ua li cas thiaj li tau txais txiaj ntsig zoo?). Bullion tau tawg txawm tias xyoo 2022, taug qab cov khoom lag luam, tab sis ntaus txhua yam.

Yog li, kev pom zoo los ntawm Doug Ramsey, rau 2023 peb cov khoom lag luam hloov pauv tag nrho muaj 12.5% ​​lossis ib feem yim hauv Asmeskas cov kaus mom loj, me me, cov khoom lag luam thoob ntiaj teb, kev nqis peev hauv vaj tse, 10 Xyoo Nyiaj Txiag thiab cov khoom muag, thiab tag nrho 25%, lossis ¼, hauv kub kub: Lub ntsiab lus, hais, 12.5% ​​txhua tus hauv ETFs
Soj,
-0.73%,

IWM,
-0.96%,

VEA,
-0.11%,

VNQ,
-0.55%,

IEF,
-0.19%
thiab
GSG,
+ 0.95%
thiab 25% nyob rau hauv
SGOL,
+ 1.65%.

Tsis muaj kev lees paub, thiab muaj ntau qhov caveats. Piv txwv li, cov thawj tswj nyiaj feem ntau - txawm tias cov neeg nyiam kub - yuav qhia rau koj tias yog kub ntau. Meanwhile kub thiab cov khoom lag luam khwv tau nyiaj tsis tau, uas ua rau lawv nyuaj heev kom muaj nuj nqis raws li cov nyiaj txiag niaj hnub no. Muaj cov lus nug raug raug nug txog kev nqis peev ntawm cov kub hauv kev lag luam niaj hnub no, thaum nws tsis yog nyiaj txiag ntxiv lawm.

Muaj dua, koj tuaj yeem tsa cov lus ceeb toom loj txog txhua chav peev.

Cov ntaub ntawv khaws tseg no yog los ntawm ib nrab xyoo pua cov ntaub ntawv. Puas yog "kev txawj ntse" cov ntaub ntawv sau tseg txog ntawm Wall Street raws li txhua yam muaj zog dua? Thiab pes tsawg tus ntawm cov no tsuas yog raws li cov ntaub ntawv kev ua tau zoo txij li xyoo 1982, thaum lub sijhawm ua rau poob nyiaj txiag thiab cov paj laum tau teeb tsa ob qho khoom lag luam thiab daim ntawv cog lus?

Raws li ib txwm muaj, koj them koj cov nyiaj thiab koj xaiv qhov koj xaiv. Kuv yuav, tsawg kawg, yuav tau kuaj xyuas ntawm no ib ntus ntawm Ramsey ob lub mousetraps-AANA thiab kev kho kom zoo-ua li cas. Nyob twj ywm.