Cov khoom me me- thiab midcap yuav yog cov neeg ua yeeb yam qis dua li tsib xyoos tom ntej.
Qhov ntawd yog qhov kev cia siab tsis txaus ntseeg, txij li cov haujlwm no twb raug kev txom nyem ntau dua li kev lag luam dav. Russell 2000 Index
ROV,
Piv txwv li, yog 22% qis dua nws qhov siab tshaj txhua lub sijhawm. Blue-chip-dominated Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
Hauv qhov sib piv, tsuas yog 9% qis dua nws qhov siab txhua lub sijhawm.
Qhov kev twv tsis txaus siab no yog los ntawm tus qauv kev ntsuas ntsuas uas ntaus kis las cov ntaub ntawv zoo siab kwv yees cov khoom lag luam tom qab tsib xyoos rov qab. Nws yog raws li ib tus lej luam tawm txhua lub lim tiam hauv lub Tus nqi Line Investment Survey, tsab ntawv xov xwm tshaj tawm los ntawm Value Line, Inc.
VALU,
Tus lej sawv cev rau qhov nruab nrab ntawm qhov kev kwv yees ua los ntawm Tus Nqi Line cov kws tshuaj ntsuam ntawm qhov twg 1,700 cov khoom lag luam uas lawv tau saib xyuas zoo yuav ua lag luam hauv peb mus rau tsib xyoos lub sijhawm. Tus lej no raug xa mus rau VLMAP, rau Tus Nqi Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Plaws. Txawm hais tias VLMAP cov neeg sib txawv muaj cov cai sib txawv rau kev txhais cov lej rau hauv ib qho kev txiav txim rau lub sijhawm ua lag luam, feem ntau lawv nce thiab txo lawv cov kev sib raug zoo nrog rau VLMAP.
Daim ntawv qhia nrog cov phiaj xwm VLMAP thiab Russell 2000 Performance index tom qab 5 xyoo rov qab txhua xyoo. Daim ntawv qhia pib xyoo 1979, txij li thaum lub sijhawm Russell 2000 index tau tsim. (VLMAP nws tus kheej rov qab mus rau thaum ntxov 1960s.) Kuv tau tsim daim ntawv qhia no kom tsom mus rau Russell 2000 thiab lub qab ntug tsib xyoos vim tias qhov ntawd yog qhov ntsuas thiab lub sijhawm uas VLMAP muaj lub zog piav qhia loj tshaj, raws li kuv kev ntsuam xyuas.
Xav txog ib qho kev txheeb cais hu ua r-squared, uas ntsuas cov qib uas ib cov ntaub ntawv piav qhia lossis kwv yees kev hloov pauv hauv lwm qhov. Thaum VLMAP siv los kwv yees Russell 2000 qhov 5-xyoo rov qab los tom ntej, r-squared yog qhov tseem ceeb 39%. Qhov sib piv r-squared yog qhov tseem ceeb-tseem ceeb-tseem ceeb 13% thaum VLMAP siv los kwv yees S&P 500's
SPX,
tom qab tsib xyoos rov qab los. Thaum VLMAP siv los kwv yees tom qab 10-xyoo rov qab los, r-squareds yog 22% rau Russell 2000 thiab 14% rau S&P 500.
Nws ua rau kev nkag siab tias VLMAP yuav muaj cov ntaub ntawv zoo dua thaum kwv yees rov qab los ntawm Russell 2000 dua li S&P 500. Txij li thaum VLMAP tsom mus rau qhov nruab nrab cov khoom lag luam, nws yuav hnyav dua los ntawm cov khoom me me dua li qhov loj-cap-dominated. S&P 500.
VLMAP tam sim no sawv ntawm 55%, uas yog nyob ntawm 37th Qhov feem pua ntawm nws qhov kev faib tawm txij li xyoo 1979. Qhov xov xwm zoo yog tias VLMAP qib tam sim no yog ze rau nruab nrab ntawm nws qhov kev faib tawm ntau dua li nyob rau sab saum toj ntawm lub khw muag nyuj xyoo 2021. Qhov ntawd yog thaum VLMAP poob rau qib qis heev ntawm tsuas yog 25. %. Tab sis rau lwm lub lim tiam txij li xyoo 1979, tsis muaj lwm lub sijhawm txij li xyoo 1979 uas VLMAP tau qis dua.
Cov xov xwm tsis zoo yog tias VLMAP tseem qis dua nws qhov nruab nrab, qhia txog qhov rov qab qis dua li tsib xyoos tom ntej. Daniel Seiver, editor ntawm PAD System Report tsab ntawv xov xwm peev thiab ib tug tswv cuab ntawm Economics kws qhia ntawv ntawm Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo, tau txheeb xyuas VLMAP cov ntaub ntawv keeb kwm yav dhau los. Hauv email, Seiver tau hais tias VLMAP ntawm 55% "tsis yog qhov txaus nyiam, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nrog cov paj laum tseem nce siab dua. Kuv zoo siab tuav txog 50% nyiaj ntsuab tseg, thiab nyiaj ntsuab tam sim no them ntau dua li nws tau ua ob xyoos dhau los. Xyoo 2020, kev sib kis tsis zoo tau thawb VL MAP zoo dua 100%, muab cov tub ua lag luam mus sij hawm ntev (txawm hais tias luv luv) lub sijhawm los yuav cov khoom lag luam ntawm tus nqi txaus nyiam. Ntawm qhov tod tes, nyob rau nruab nrab 2021, VLMAP poob mus rau 25%, uas yog ib qho kev qhia tias cov khoom lag luam tau raug nqi ntau heev. Tsis yog cov ntaub ntawv kwv yees ntev ntev tsis zoo. "
Mark Robertson pom zoo. Nws tswj cov Manifest Kev nqis peev lub vev xaib, thiab tau tso siab rau VLMAP ntau xyoo dhau los. Txawm hais tias VLMAP underestimated lub lag luam cov khoom lag luam rov qab los ntawm kaum xyoo dhau los, nws tau hais hauv email tias daim ntawv qhia mus sij hawm ntev ntawm ob lub koob yog "tseem ceeb."
(Kev nthuav tawm tag nrho: Tsis yog Seiver's lossis Robertson cov kev pabcuam tsis yog ntawm cov uas nws cov ntaub ntawv teev npe raug tshuaj xyuas los ntawm kuv lub tuam txhab tshawb xyuas kev ua haujlwm.)
Yuav ua li cas lwm cov qauv ntsuas ntsuas tam sim no
VLMAP tsis yog ntawm yim qhov ntsuas ntsuas qhov ntsuas uas kuv niaj hnub ua hauv kev tshuaj xyuas txhua hli no. Cov yim no tau raug xaiv vim lawv cov ntaub ntawv zoo tshaj plaws uas kwv yees S&P 500's 10-xyoo rov qab los, thiab VLMAP los txog luv luv rau lawv. Tab sis nws cov ntaub ntawv teev tseg tseem zoo siab, thiab nws qhov kev kwv yees ntawm qhov nruab nrab rov qab los ntxiv rau cov lus zoo sib xws uas los ntawm yim-raws li koj tuaj yeem pom los ntawm cov lus hauv qab no.
| Tseeb | Lub hli dhau los | Pib xyoo | Percentile txij thaum 2000 (100% feem ntau bearish) | Percentile txij thaum 1970 (100% feem ntau bearish) | Percentile txij thaum 1950 (100% feem ntau bearish) | |
| P / E Piv | 23.35 | 23.72 | 22.34 | 62% | 76% | 83% |
| CAPE ratio | 29.14 | 28.81 | 28.46 | 75% | 82% | 87% |
| P / Dividend ratio | 1.71% | 1.64% | 1.74% | 75% | 83% | 87% |
| P/Sales ratio | 2.34 | 2.38 | 2.24 | 91% | 96% | 97% |
| P/Book ratio | 4.03 | 4.09 | 3.85 | 93% | 92% | 99% |
| Q ratio | 1.71 | 1.73 | 1.63 | 88% | 93% | 95% |
| Buffett ratio (PIB/PIB) | 1.57 | 1.59 | 1.49 | 87% | 94% | 94% |
| Kev faib nyiaj nruab nrab ntawm tsev neeg | 43.6% | 43.6% | 43.6% | 75% | 84% | 88% |
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-little-known-indicator-with-an-excellent-record-is-projecting-below-average-long-term-returns-e9233576?siteid=yhoof2&yptr= yahoo