Nov yog lub sijhawm thaum 'kev xwm txheej' zoo li Enron tau tshwm sim - JPMorgan quant hais tias cov khoom lag luam tau nce siab thiab nyiam cov ntawv cog lus tshaj cov khoom lag luam

"WorldCom, Enron, Bear Stearns, Lehman's, accounting irregularities thiab lwm yam tau tshwm sim thaum lub voj voog qeeb thiab Fed tab tom nce nqi," hais tias Khuram Chaudhry, tus kws tshaj lij European kev ncaj ncees ntawm JPMorgan hauv London. "Qhov tshwm sim ntawm 'kev huam yuaj' yog siab heev tam sim no, dua li txhua lub sijhawm dhau los tsis ntev los no."

Chaudhry hais tias JPMorgan tus kheej quant macro Performance index qhia tias daim ntawv cog lus rov qab yuav zoo li yuav tau txais kev sib tw sai sai, vim nws tab tom txuas ntxiv mus rau thaj chaw cog lus.

Kev cia siab nyiaj txiag nce siab, tab sis kev nce nqi tau nce siab, nws hais. Yog tias keeb kwm yog ib qho kev qhia txog qhov peb nyob niaj hnub no, tom qab ntawd daim ntawv cog lus yuav tsum tau nce siab sai sai thiab pib txav mus qis dua, Fed lub hom phiaj tus nqi yuav nce siab sai dua li qhov kev lag luam tam sim no kwv yees, thiab cov khoom lag luam yuav nyob twj ywm txawm tias dhau los ntawm thawj feem ntawm cov tom ntej no paj laum easing voj voog.

Tsis tas li ntawd, daim ntawv cog lus yields ncov thaum lub yield nkhaus inverts. "Lub Rau Hli / Lub Xya Hli, cov nyiaj tau los poob 100bps los ntawm 3.5% mus rau 2.5% thiab kev sib hloov ntawm daim ntawv cog lus nyob rau hauv cov khoom lag luam ua raws li qhov zoo thiab xaiv cov khoom lag luam loj hlob tshaj tus nqi thiab cov khoom pheej hmoo siab. Peb ntseeg hais tias, yog hais tias peb ua tau hais tias ib tug inverted yield nkhaus sai sai ua rau ib tug ncov nyob rau hauv daim ntawv cog lus yields ces lub 'trailer' peb pom nyob rau lub caij ntuj sov yog heev yuav txhawb nqa cov nqi, cov khoom lag luam zoo thiab ntau qhov chaw tiv thaiv, "nws hais.

Lwm qhov tseeb keeb kwm yog tias thaum cov txiaj ntsig nkhaus inverts, Fed tus nqi hiking voj voog sai sai los txog qhov kawg. "Nws yog vim li no peb ntseeg tias muaj peev xwm hloov pauv hauv Fed txoj cai mus tom ntej yuav tsis zoo li qhov pivot tab sis tsuas yog qhov kawg ntawm tus nqi nce mus. Fed txoj haujlwm tau ua tiav, thiab lawv muaj ntau dua li yuav nruj, "nws hais.

Qhov no yog atypical Fed hiking voj voog nyob rau hauv uas nws tau pib tom qab kev sib raug zoo tau peaked.

"Keeb kwm, cov paj laum pib lawv qhov nce ua ntej cov khoom lag luam nce siab, tom qab ntawd kev lag luam yuav poob mus ntxiv thaum lub sijhawm txiav nqi, thiab tom qab ntawd yuav qis dua thaum cov ntaub ntawv macro thiab cov txiaj ntsig pib teb rau cov nyiaj tau los ntxiv thiab kev txhawb nqa nyiaj txiag. Nrog ntau qhov tsis paub meej nyob ib puag ncig cov kev taw qhia ntawm kev nce qib ntxiv, thiab qhov twg hauv qab yog nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv macro peb xav kom hnyav hnyav dua li cov khoom muaj nqis, "nws hais.

Qhov ntawd ua rau nws mus txuas ntxiv nyiam cov ntawv cog lus ntawm cov khoom sib npaug, thiab hauv cov khoom sib npaug, nyiam qhov zoo tshaj tus nqi. JPMorgan tus npoj yaig Marko Kolanovic, nws yuav tsum tau hais tias, tau yog ib qho chaw ruaj khov ntawm cov khoom lag luam xyoo no.

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