Qhov no idiot-proof portfolio tau ntaus cov khoom lag luam thiab cov ntawv cog lus ntau dua 50 xyoo

Qhov feem ntau ua raws li cov qauv ntsuas yog qhov hu ua "balanced" portfolio hu ua 60/40: 60% stocks, 40% bonds. Nws yog tus qauv ua raws li cov neeg saib xyuas nyiaj laus hauv ntiaj teb. Txoj kev xav yog tias cov khoom lag luam yuav tsim kev loj hlob ntev mus ntev, thaum cov ntawv cog lus yuav muab qee qhov kev ruaj ntseg.

Thiab nws tau ua tiav zoo tag nrho - tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau lub sijhawm txij li thaum xyoo 1980s, vim tias kev nce nqi thiab cov paj laum tau poob, thiab cov khoom lag luam thiab cov nyiaj tau los tau nce. Tab sis li cas txog lwm lub sijhawm?

Doug Ramsey, tus thawj coj peev ntawm Leuthold Group hauv Minneapolis, kuj taug qab qee yam txawv. Raws li tau hais los saum no, nws hu nws "Txhua Yam Khoom, Tsis Muaj Cai" portfolio thiab nws muaj kev sib npaug ntawm kev nqis peev hauv 7 cov cuab yeej cuab tam: Asmeskas cov tuam txhab lag luam loj, uas yog S&P 500 index.
SPX,
+ 2.39%,
US cov tuam txhab me me, ntawm Russell 2000 Performance index
ROV,
+ 3.06%,
Cov khoom lag luam ntawm cov lag luam thoob ntiaj teb tsim nyob hauv Europe thiab Asia, los ntawm lub npe hu ua EAFE index, 10-xyoo Nyiaj Txiag sau ntawv, kub, khoom muag, thiab US kev nqis peev hauv vaj tse.

Txhua tus neeg uas xav ua raws li cov ntaub ntawv no - qhov no tsis yog ib qho kev pom zoo, tsuas yog kev soj ntsuam - tuaj yeem ua tau yooj yim siv 7 qhov kev sib pauv pauv nyiaj qis, xws li SPDR S&P 500.
Soj,
+ 2.39%,
iShares Russell 2000
IWM,
+ 3.17%,
Vanguard FTSE Tsim Kho Kev Lag Luam
VEA,
+ 2.81%,
iShares 7-10 Xyoo Treasury Bond
IEF,
-0.52%,
SPDR Kub Sib Faib
GLD,
-0.81%,
Invesco DB Cov Lus Qhia Teev Cov Nyiaj Pab
DBC,
+ 1.37%
thiab Vanguard Real Estate
VNQ,
+ 2.64%.

Nws yog ib lub tswv yim ntse. Nws sim tawm sab nraud peb lub sijhawm tam sim no, vim tias yav tom ntej yuav tsis zoo li 40 xyoo dhau los. Thiab nws yog idiot-pov thawj, vim hais tias nws yuav siv sij hawm tag nrho cov kev tswj ntawm tes ntawm cov tib neeg. Nws faib cov nyiaj sib npaug rau tag nrho cov khoom vaj khoom tsev loj, thaum ua tus thawj koom ruam loj ntawm tsis muaj.

Ramsey tau saib seb cov ntaub ntawv no tau ua li cas (lossis yuav ua tiav) rov qab mus rau thaum ntxov 1970s. Koj tuaj yeem pom cov txiaj ntsig saum toj no, piv rau 60/40 portfolio ntawm 60% nqis peev hauv S&P 500 thiab 40% nqis peev hauv 10-xyoo US Treasury sau ntawv. Ob qho kev ua lag luam yog rov sib npaug ntawm qhov kawg ntawm txhua xyoo. Nco tseg: Cov lej tau raug hloov kho rau kev nce nqi, uas qhia tias "tiag tiag" rov qab rau hauv cov nyiaj hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas tas li.

Ntau yam dhia tawm.

Ua ntej, Tag Nrho Cov Khoom Siv Tsis Muaj Cai tau tsim cov nyiaj rov qab ntau dua nyob rau ib nrab xyoo dhau los tshaj li 60/40. (Nws tau ua raws li S&P 500, tab sis tsawg dua li koj xav.)

Qhov thib ob, qhov kev ua tau zoo (raws li koj xav txog) yog tiag tiag vim yog xyoo 1970, thaum kub, khoom muag thiab vaj tse ua tau zoo.

Qhov thib peb, txawm tias AANA ua tau zoo dua hauv xyoo 1970, nws tseem ua tau zoo heev txawm tias thaum lub sijhawm nce cov khoom lag luam thiab cov ntawv cog lus. Txij li thaum xyoo 1982 nws tau txais qhov nyiaj rov qab tiag tiag nruab nrab ntawm 5.7% ib xyoos, piv rau qis dua 7% rau 60/40 cov ntaub ntawv (thiab tsuas yog ntau dua 8% rau S&P 500).

Tab sis thib plaub, thiab tej zaum qhov nthuav tshaj plaws: AANA cov ntaub ntawv tau txais kev pheej hmoo tsawg dua, tsawg kawg ntsuas hauv ib txoj kev. Es tsis txhob saib tus qauv sib txawv ntawm kev xa rov qab, kuv tau saib 10-xyoo kev rov qab los tiag tiag vim qhov ntawd yog qhov tseem ceeb rau cov neeg tiag tiag. Yog tias kuv muaj cov ntaub ntawv pov thawj, kuv yuav zoo npaum li cas rau 10 xyoo txij li tam sim no - thiab, qhov tseem ceeb, qhov zoo li cas kuv yuav xaus rau hauv av?

Tej zaum qhov ntawd yog qhov tsaus ntuj dhau los ntawm kev saib tej yam. Tej zaum nws yog ib qho kev xav ntawm kev muag khoom tam sim no.

Txawm li cas los xij, kuv tau pom tias yuav luag ib nrab xyoo pua AANA tsis tau ua qhov tsis zoo rov qab los ib zaug dhau 10 xyoo. Qhov kev ua tau zoo tshaj plaws yog 2.6% ib xyoos dhau los ntawm kev nce nqi - uas yog nyob rau hauv 10 xyoo rau 2016. Qhov ntawd tseem ua rau 30% nce hauv koj lub zog yuav khoom nyob rau hauv ib xyoo caum. Lub caij no, 60/40 cov nyiaj (thiab 100% faib rau S&P 500) muaj ntau tshaj li ob peb lub sijhawm 10 xyoo tau poob koj cov nyiaj tiag tiag, thiab ob peb lub sijhawm ua rau koj tsawg dua 1% hauv ib lub xyoo dhau los ntawm kev nce nqi. . (Tsis suav cov nqi thiab se, tau kawg.)

Ramsey taw qhia tias nyob rau tag nrho lub sijhawm ntawd, Txhua Yam Khoom Tsis Muaj Lub Luag Haujlwm no tau tsim qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo rov qab tsawg dua li ib nrab ntawm qhov feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov ntsiab lus tsawg dua li ntawm S&P 500, nrog rau ib nrab ntawm qhov kev hloov pauv txhua xyoo. Los ntawm kuv cov kev suav, qhov nruab nrab rov qab tau ntaus 60/40 cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm ntau tshaj li ib nrab ntawm feem pua ​​​​ntawm ib xyoo.

Raws li niaj zaus, qhov no tsis yog kev pom zoo, tsuas yog cov ntaub ntawv. Ua qhov koj yuav.