Qhov no 'vwm' cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj laus tau tsuas yog ntaus Wall Street rau 50 xyoo

Peb tab tom tham txog cov ntaub ntawv yooj yim uas txhua tus neeg tuaj yeem ua raws hauv lawv tus kheej 401 (k) lossis IRA lossis nyiaj laus. Tus nqi qis, tsis muaj muss, tsis muaj fuss. Thiab nws tau tswj kom ua ob yam muaj zog ib txhij.

Nws tau ntaus tus qauv Wall Street portfolio ntawm 60% US stocks thiab 40% bonds. Tsis yog xyoo tas los, thaum nws yeej lawv los ntawm qhov xav tsis thoob 7 feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov ntsiab lus, tab sis rau ib nrab xyoo pua.

Thiab nws tau ua li ntawd nrog txoj kev pheej hmoo tsawg. Tsawg zog. Tsawg dua kev puas tsuaj. Thiab tsis muaj "poob" xyoo lawm.

Xyoo tas los, 2022, cim 50^th lub xyoo ntawm no unheralded portfolio, uas yog hu ua "Tag nrho cov cuab tam tsis muaj cai," thiab uas peb tau sau txog ntawm no ua ntej.

Nws yog lub hlwb ntawm Doug Ramsey. Nws yog tus thawj tswj hwm kev nqis peev ntawm Leuthold & Co., lub tuam txhab kev tswj hwm nyiaj txiag ntev uas tau pom zoo nyob hauv Minneapolis, txoj kev ntev, deb ntawm Wall Street.

AANA yog amazingly yooj yim, xav tsis thoob complex, thiab tau astonishingly ruaj. Nws tsuas yog faib koj cov peev txheej rau hauv 7 qhov sib npaug, thiab nqis peev ib qho hauv Asmeskas cov tuam txhab lag luam loj (S&P 500
SPX,
-1.16%
), US cov tuam txhab me me (Russell 2000
ROV,
-1.09%
), tsim thoob ntiaj teb cov khoom lag luam (Tebchaws Europe, Australasia thiab Far East lossis EAFE index), kub
GC00,
,
Cov khoom muag, Asmeskas kev nqis peev hauv vaj tse lossis REITS, thiab 10 xyoo Treasury bonds
TUBMUSD 10Y,
3.730%.

Nws yog Ramsey cov lus teb rau lo lus nug: Koj yuav faib koj cov peev nyiaj mus sij hawm ntev li cas yog tias koj xav muab koj tus neeg saib xyuas nyiaj tsis muaj kev txiav txim siab txhua, tab sis xav kom muaj ntau haiv neeg?

AANA npog cov khoom vaj khoom tsev array, suav nrog vaj tse, khoom muag thiab kub, yog li nws ruaj khov nyob rau lub sijhawm ntawm kev nce nqi ntxiv nrog rau kev poob qis lossis deflation. Thiab nws yog ib qho kev faib ruaj khov. Koj kis tau cov nyiaj sib npaug thoob plaws 7 cov khoom muaj nqis, rov sib npaug ib xyoos ib zaug kom muab lawv rov qab sib npaug. Thiab yog nws. Tus thawj tswj-koj, kuv, lossis Fredo-tsis tas yuav ua lwm yam. Lawv tsis pub ua lwm yam. Lawv tsis muaj cai.

AANA tau ua tau zoo dua li kev nqis peev ntawm Wall Street li niaj zaus thaum xyoo 2022 cov kua muag. Thaum nws xaus rau lub xyoo poob 9.6%, uas yog qhov zoo dua li S&P 500 (uas poob 18%), lossis qhov sib npaug ntawm 60% US stocks thiab 40% US daim ntawv cog lus, uas poob 17%.

Lub Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
-1.47%
? nqis los ntawm peb.

Crypto? Yog, cia peb tsis txhob tham txog qhov ntawd.

Xyoo tas los txoj kev vam meej ntawm AANA yog vim muaj ob yam, thiab lawv ib leeg: Nws raug rau cov khoom muag, uas tau nce los ntawm ib feem tsib, thiab kub, uas yog qib hauv cov nyiaj (thiab nce 6% hauv euros, 12% hauv phaus British, thiab 14% thaum ntsuas hauv Japanese yen).

Ramsey's AANA portfolio tau ua tsis tau raws li cov khoom lag luam hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas ib txwm muaj thiab daim ntawv cog lus nyob rau kaum xyoo dhau los, tab sis qhov ntawd yog vim qhov kawg tau dhau los ntawm qhov loj heev - thiab, zoo li, tsis muaj kev vam meej-boom. Qhov tseem ceeb ntawm AANA yog tias nyob rau hauv 50 xyoo nws yeej tsis muaj ib xyoo lawm. Txawm hais tias xyoo 1970 lossis xyoo 2000, thaum Wall Street floundered, AANA tau txais txiaj ntsig zoo.

Txij li thaum pib xyoo 1973, raws li Ramsey cov kev suav, nws tau txais qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo rov qab los ntawm 9.8% ib xyoos. Qhov ntawd yog kwv yees li ib nrab ntawm feem pua ​​​​ntawm ib xyoos tsawg dua S&P 500, tab sis tau kawg AANA tsis yog ib qho kev pheej hmoo siab rau kev lag luam tag nrho. Qhov kev sib piv zoo dua yog tawm tsam tus qauv "sib npaug" cov khoom lag luam ntawm 60% US stocks thiab 40% Treasury bonds.

Txij li thaum pib ntawm 1973, raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm New York University lub Stern lag luam tsev kawm ntawv, uas 60/40 portfolio tau txais ib tug nruab nrab compound rov qab los ntawm 9.1% ib xyoo. Qhov ntawd tsawg dua AANA. Auj, thiab qhov no xav tias "sib npaug" portfolio tau ua phem heev hauv xyoo 1970, thiab ua phem dua xyoo tas los.

Koj tuaj yeem (yog tias koj xav tau) tsim AANA rau koj tus kheej siv 7 tus nqi qis ETFs: Piv txwv li, SPDR S&P 500
Soj,
-1.14%,
iShares Russell 2000
IWM,
-1.07%,
Vanguard FTSE Tsim Kho Kev Lag Luam
VEA,
-1.12%,
abrdn Lub cev kub Shares
SGOL,
-1.29%,
Cov khoom lag luam xws li iShares S&P GSCI Cov Khoom Muag-Indexed Trust ETF
GSG,
-0.30%,
iShares 7-10 Xyoo Nyiaj Txiag Nyiaj Txiag ETF
IEF,
-0.14%,
thiab Vanguard Real ETF
VNQ,
-2.69%.

Daim ntawv no tsuas yog piav qhia xwb. Muaj kev sib tw ETFs hauv txhua pawg, thiab hauv qee qhov - xws li cov khoom muag thiab REITs - lawv txawv heev. GSG tshwm sim ua raws li cov khoom lag luam tshwj xeeb uas Ramsey siv hauv nws cov kev suav.

Muaj ntau qhov kev nqis peev uas tsis zoo nyob rau ntawd, thiab nws yog ib lo lus nug ntau npaum li cas zoo dua. AANA yuav ua haujlwm tsis tu ncua cov khoom lag luam thiab cov ntawv cog lus hauv kev lag luam booming, tab sis ua tau zoo dua hauv kaum xyoo poob.

Rau cov neeg txaus siab, Ramsey kuj muaj qhov sib tw. Nws cov kev suav tseem qhia tau hais tias dhau 50 xyoo dhau los qhov ntse txav los ua thaum pib ntawm txhua xyoo yog los nqis peev hauv cov cuab yeej cuab tam hauv cov ntaub ntawv uas ua tau zoo thib ob hauv 12 lub hlis dhau los. Nws hu hais tias "bristmaid" peev. Txij li xyoo 1973 tus nkauj nyab tau khwv tau koj qhov nruab nrab 13.1% hauv ib xyoos - cov ntaub ntawv tsis txaus ntseeg uas ua rau S&P 500. Xyoo tas los tus nkauj nyab, qhov xwm txheej, yog qhov txaus ntshai (nws yog REITs, uas tau ntim). Tab sis feem ntau xyoo nws yeej, thiab yeej loj.

Yog hais tias ib tug neeg xav coj kom zoo dua ntawm qhov kev sib tw yooj yim no, koj tuaj yeem faib cov ntaub ntawv rau hauv 8 units, tsis yog 7, thiab siv qhov thib yim los ua ob npaug rau koj cov peev txheej hauv cov khoom vaj khoom tsev nkauj nyab. Rau 2023 uas yuav yog kub, uas taug qab cov khoom lag luam xyoo tas los tab sis tawg txawm.

vwm? Genius? Rau ib tus neeg tsim cov ntaub ntawv mus sij hawm ntev rau lawv cov nyiaj laus muaj ntau lub tswv yim phem - suav nrog ntau tus neeg tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm cov kws tshaj lij uas tau them nyiaj ntau, thiab ua lag luam rau lwm tus ntawm peb.