Nrog Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve Thawj Tswj Hwm Jerome Powell tau teem sijhawm los hais lus tseem ceeb rau hnub Friday, cov tub ua lag luam thaum kawg yuav pib coj nws ntawm nws cov lus: Lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv tuam txhab yuav tswj hwm tus cwj pwm tsis txaus ntseeg los tswj kev nce nqi siab tshaj plaws hauv plaub xyoos. Qhov no txhais tau tias kev lag luam nyiaj txiag yuav nyob twj ywm tsis hloov pauv, txawm tias tsis ntev los no cov khoom lag luam sib tw.
Muaj ntau qhov laj thawj los txiav txim siab txog kev nqis peev hauv vaj tsev, lossis REITs, vim tias muaj kev nyab xeeb zoo los muab cov nyiaj tau los tsis tu ncua thaum kev nce nyiaj nce siab thiab ua ntej yuav muaj kev lag luam qeeb.
Hauv qab no yog ib qho screen ntawm kev ncaj ncees REITs xav tias yuav tsim kom muaj nyiaj txaus txaus los pab kom cov nyiaj faib nce ntxiv hauv 2023.
Nyob rau hauv lub Xav paub kem nyob rau lub Yim Hli 24, Steve Goldstein tau sau tseg qhov kev kwv yees ntawm qhov tshiab "supercycle hauv kev nce nqi thiab cov paj laum"los ntawm Dario Perkins, tus thawj coj ntawm kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb macro ntawm TS Lombard.
Perkins cia siab tias cov paj laum mus sij hawm ntev yuav nce siab dua, thiab qhia tias xyoo 2020 yuav xav kom cov tub ua lag luam coj "kev paub ntau dua rau kev faib khoom vaj khoom tsev."
Tsiv mus deb ntawm cov chaw muab kev pabcuam uas tau tswj hwm lub khw muag nyuj mus txog xyoo 2021, nws ntseeg tias qhov yuav ua haujlwm zoo tshaj plaws yog faib rau cov khoom muaj nqis, suav nrog av.
Kev rhuav tshem REIT sector
Kev nqis peev peev hauv vaj tse tuaj yeem muaj ntau yam, tab sis lub ntsiab lus tseem ceeb yog lawv dhau los ntawm feem ntau cov nyiaj tau los rau cov tswv lag luam kom tswj tau cov se-zoo REIT qauv.
Muaj ob pawg loj ntawm REITs: Cov REITs qiv nyiaj, uas qiv nyiaj rau cov lag luam lossis cov neeg qiv nyiaj hauv tsev thiab / lossis nqis peev hauv tsev qiv nyiaj rov qab, thiab kev sib npaug REITs, uas yog tus tswv lag luam lossis vaj tse thiab xauj nws tawm.
REITs yog ib puag ncig, nrog rau kev ntsuas ntsuas raws li cov paj laum nce. Cov txiaj ntsig no tuaj yeem tshaj tawm tshwj xeeb rau kev qiv nyiaj REITs, vim tias kev qiv qiv nyiaj qiv lag luam qeeb thaum cov paj laum nce.
Txog tam sim no xyoo no, txog Lub Yim Hli 24, S&P 500 kev lag luam vaj tsev poob qis 15%, thaum tag nrho S&P 500
SPX
poob 12%, ob qho tib si nrog cov nyiaj faib rov ua lag luam.
Kev saib xyuas ntev ntev yuav ua rau koj xav tsis thoob. S&P Dow Jones Indices tau cais cov khoom vaj khoom tsev los ntawm kev lag luam nyiaj txiag hauv 2016. Tab sis yog tias peb nqaim mus rau S&P 500 REIT pawg kev lag luam rau kev ntsuas kev ua haujlwm ntev, qhov 20-xyoo nruab nrab txhua xyoo rov qab los yog 9.9%, me ntsis ua ntej. ntawm S&P 500's 20-xyoo nruab nrab rov qab los ntawm 9.8%.
REITs los ntawm qeb
Ntau hom REITs dhau los ntawm kev lag luam sib txawv. Piv txwv li, tsev so REITs thiab lawv cov neeg xauj tsev tau raug kev txom nyem loj heev nyob rau theem pib ntawm tus kabmob coronavirus, pib nrog kev kaw virtual ntawm kev lag luam mus ncig hauv thawj ib nrab xyoo 2020.
Ntau REITs tau tsom mus rau qhov chaw khaws khoom thiab chaw xa khoom, uas tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm kev xauj tsev txhua xyoo nce ob npaug hauv xyoo tas los no, raws li Vikram Malhotra, tus thawj coj saib xyuas vaj tsev ntawm Mizuho.
Tab sis Amazon.com Inc.
AMZN
hais hauv nws thawj lub quarter nyiaj txiag tshaj tawm nyob rau lub Plaub Hlis uas tom qab ob npaug ntawm qhov loj ntawm nws qhov kev ua tiav hauv ob xyoos nkaus xwb, nws "tsis tau caum lub cev lossis cov neeg ua haujlwm muaj peev xwm" thiab tau "squarely tsom rau kev txhim kho cov khoom tsim tau thiab cov nqi ua tau zoo" hauv nws cov khoom xa tuaj.
Thaum lub sijhawm xam phaj, Malhotra tau hais tias tom qab Amazon cov lus tshaj tawm, nws thiab cov npoj yaig tau "saib thiab hnov hauv kev ua lag luam tias Amazon tau tso cov khoom lag luam rau ntawm lub lag luam sublet."
"Yog li tus neeg ua si loj tshaj plaws hauv kev lag luam e-lag luam tau hais rau kev lag luam nws muaj ntau dhau lawm thiab ua kom muaj txiaj ntsig, thiab qhov ntawd ua rau cov khoom lag luam xa tawm mus rau de-rate," nws hais.
Prologis Inc., UA
PLD
yog qhov kev lag luam loj tshaj plaws hauv US REIT hauv cov chaw khaws khoom thiab chaw xa khoom. Lub tuam txhab teev npe Amazon, FedEx Corp.
FDX,
Tsev Depot Inc.
HD,
Geodis thiab Walmart Inc.
WMT
raws li nws tsib tus neeg siv khoom loj tshaj plaws thaum kawg ntawm 2021, nrog Amazon xauj 24 lab square feet, lossis 7% ntawm nws tag nrho.
Shares ntawm Prologis tau nqis 21% rau 2022 txog Lub Yim Hli 24, nrog cov nyiaj faib rov qab. Cov khoom lag luam cov nyiaj faib tawm yog kwv yees li 2.5%. Prologis tau teeb tsa kom tau Duke Realty Corp.
NYOO
los ntawm tag nrho cov khoom lag luam muaj nqis ntawm $ 26 billion thaum nws tau tshaj tawm rau lub Rau Hli.
Mizuho muaj qhov ntsuas nruab nrab ntawm Prologis, uas Malhotra tau hais tias "tsis muaj kev pom zoo." Nws paub tseeb tias - ntawm 17 tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas los ntawm FactSet, 13 tus nqi sib koom "yuav" lossis qhov sib npaug. Tus so yog qhov ntsuas nruab nrab.
Nws tau hais ntxiv tias Mizuho tab tom saib xyuas cov neeg ua haujlwm logistics thib peb, xws li XPO Logistics Inc.
XPO,
FedEx thiab United Parcel Service Inc.
ib ce
rau cov cim qhia ntawm kev thov qeeb yog tias kev lag luam poob qis heev.
Nrog rau txhua yam uas tau hais, tej zaum yuav muaj cov nyiaj hauv cov khoom siv rau cov tsev khaws khoom / chaw xa khoom REITs: Malhotra xav tias kev loj hlob ntawm cov nqi xauj tsev hauv qhov chaw yuav qeeb mus rau "nruab nrab mus rau ib tus lej siab" los ntawm qhov tam sim no ntau dua 10%. Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Ua Haujlwm tau hais tias Consumer Price Index nyob rau hauv Lub Xya hli ntuj pom ib tug 8.5% nce los ntawm ib xyoo dhau los. Qhov ntawd tau txhim kho los ntawm 9.1% hauv lub hli dhau los. Tej zaum nws yuav tsis dhau qhov kev nthuav dav kom cia siab tias REIT cov tswv lag luam yuav tuaj yeem khaws lawv cov nqi xauj tsev kom phim lossis tuav cov pace ntawm kev nce nqi.
Qhov no yog qhov uas koj tus kheej xav los ua si, raws li koj tus kheej kev tshawb fawb. Puas yog qhov txuas ntxiv mus rau kev yuav khoom hauv online thiab xav tau kev xa khoom sai ua rau Prologis thiab nws cov neeg sib tw ua tau zoo tshaj li tsib mus rau 10 xyoo tom ntej? Prologis 'tsim tsib xyoos tag nrho rov qab txawm tias Lub Yim Hli 24 yog 138% (piv nrog 85% rau S&P 500), txawm tias lub xyoo no loj rub rov qab.
Kev tshuaj xyuas cov kev ncaj ncees REITs
Txhawm rau saib dav dav ntawm US-daim ntawv teev cov peev nyiaj lag luam kev ntseeg siab, peb pib nrog 185 suav nrog hauv Russell 3000 Index
RUA.
Qhov ntsuas no sawv cev txog 98% ntawm US cov khoom lag luam, raws li FactSet.
Tom qab ntawd peb saib cov peev txheej ntawm txhua REIT thiab tshem tawm tag nrho cov nyiaj qiv REITs coj cov npe mus rau 158 lub tuam txhab. Peb txiav txuas ntxiv mus rau 112 lub tuam txhab uas qhov kev pom zoo kwv yees muaj nyob ntawm tsawg kawg tsib tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas los ntawm FactSet rau kev hloov nyiaj los ntawm kev ua haujlwm hauv 2023.
Ib txoj hauv kev los ntsuas lub tuam txhab cov peev nyiaj faib nyiaj tau los yog saib nws qhov kwv yees cov nyiaj tau los pub dawb - cov nyiaj seem tshuav tom qab kev siv peev nyiaj. Rau REITs, cov nyiaj los ntawm kev ua haujlwm (FFO) - qhov ntsuas tsis yog GAAP - feem ntau siv. FFO ntxiv amortization thiab depreciation (cov khoom tsis yog nyiaj ntsuab) rov qab rau cov nyiaj khwv tau los, thaum tsis suav cov nyiaj tau los ntawm kev muag khoom. Hloov cov nyiaj los ntawm kev ua haujlwm (AFFO) mus ntxiv, netting tawm cov peev txheej uas xav tau los tswj hwm cov peev txheej zoo.
Yog tias peb faib ib lub tuam txhab kwv yees AFFO los ntawm nws cov nqi tam sim no, peb muaj kwv yees AFFO yield. Qhov no tuaj yeem muab piv nrog cov txiaj ntsig tam sim no los saib seb puas muaj "lub taub hau" rau kev nce ntxiv - vam tias muaj ntau lub hauv paus.
Ntawm 112 qhov REITs tseem tshuav, 104 them nyiaj faib tawm thiab tau kwv yees 2023 headroom ntawm tsawg kawg yog 1.00% - uas yog peb qhov kawg txiav.
Peb muab 104 REITs rau hauv yim pawg dav. Qhov no tsis yog ib txwm yooj yim, vim tias REIT yuav muaj ntau haiv neeg. Yog li cov pawg yog ib qho kev sim tso txhua REIT hauv ib pab pawg raws li nws qhov kev lag luam hnyav tshaj plaws. Peb mam li sib sau ua ke me ntsis ntxiv mus rau cuaj pawg dav thiab txheeb lawv los ntawm kev cia siab rau 2023 AFFO yield.
Piv txwv li, cov tuam txhab warehousing / logistics yog nyob rau hauv qeb "kev lag luam". Peb mam li pib nrog qhov ntawd.
Muaj REITs
Ntawm no yog 10 qhov kev lag luam REITs uas dhau qhov screen, nrog qhov siab tshaj plaws AFFO yields rau 2023:
| lub tuam txhab | Ticker | Kwv yees 2023 AFFO yield | Cov nyiaj faib tawm tam sim no | Kwv yees "headroom" | Kev lag luam cap. ($ lab) |
| Muaj Chaw Thauj Khoom Muaj Zog Ntseeg | ILPT | 14.65% | 0.49% | 14.16% | $536 |
| Ntiaj teb no Net Lease Inc. | LNG | 12.66% | 11.30% | 1.36% | $1,468 |
| Plymouth Industrial REIT Inc. | PLIM | 7.76% | 4.24% | 3.53% | $833 |
| Broadstone Net Lease Inc. | BNL | 7.12% | 5.35% | 1.77% | $3,497 |
| Stag Industrial Inc. | STAG | 6.31% | 4.49% | 1.82% | $5,823 |
| WP Carey Inc. | WPC | 6.28% | 4.93% | 1.35% | $16,563 |
| Lub tuam txhab PotlatchDeltic | PCH | 5.75% | 3.72% | 2.03% | $3,281 |
| CatchMark Timber Trust Inc. Chav Kawm A | CTT | 4.43% | 2.77% | 1.66% | $534 |
| Americanold Realty Trust Inc. | TXIAS | 3.92% | 2.88% | 1.04% | $8,232 |
| Prologis Inc., UA | PLD | 3.88% | 2.41% | 1.47% | $97,078 |
| Source: FactSet |
Nyem rau ntawm cov tickers kom paub ntau ntxiv txog txhua lub tuam txhab, suav nrog kev lag luam profile. Ces nyeem Tomi Kilgore cov ncauj lus kom ntxaws qhia txog cov ntaub ntawv muaj txiaj ntsig muaj pub dawb ntawm MarketWatch nplooj ntawv nqe lus.
Kev kho mob
Nov yog tag nrho cuaj REITs uas xauj tawm cov khoom kho mob thiab dhau qhov screen. Pawg no tsis suav nrog cov tuam txhab tsom mus rau cov tsev laus:
| lub tuam txhab | Ticker | Kwv yees 2023 AFFO yield | Cov nyiaj faib tawm tam sim no | Kwv yees "headroom" | Kev lag luam cap. ($ lab) |
| Medical Properties Inc. | MPW | 9.94% | 7.63% | 2.31% | $9,111 |
| Ntiaj teb no Medical REIT Inc. | GMRE | 9.86% | 7.41% | 2.44% | $742 |
| Sabra Health Care REIT Inc. | SBRA | 9.82% | 7.74% | 2.08% | $3,582 |
| Innovative Industrial Properties Inc. | IIRP | 9.50% | 7.22% | 2.27% | $2,710 |
| CareTrust REIT Inc. | XAB | 7.71% | 5.08% | 2.62% | $2,101 |
| Community Healthcare Trust Inc. | CHCT | 6.73% | 4.53% | 2.21% | $973 |
| Healthpeak Properties Inc. | ncov | 5.79% | 4.43% | 1.36% | $14,617 |
| Healthcare Realty Trust Inc. Chav Kawm A | HR | 5.50% | 1.69% | 3.81% | $9,826 |
| Welltown Inc. | Zoo | 4.43% | 3.15% | 1.28% | $35,916 |
| Source: FactSet |
thaj
Cov pawg no suav nrog REITs uas muaj ib tsev neeg lossis ntau tsev neeg nyob, nrog rau cov tsev nyob hauv zej zog thiab cov tsev laus. Nov yog 10 thaj chaw REITs uas dhau qhov screen:
| lub tuam txhab | Ticker | Kwv yees 2023 AFFO yield | Cov nyiaj faib tawm tam sim no | Kwv yees "headroom" | Kev lag luam cap. ($ lab) |
| National Health Investors Inc. | NHI | 6.90% | 5.41% | 1.49% | $2,971 |
| LTC Khoom Inc. | LTC | 6.71% | 5.14% | 1.57% | $1,797 |
| BRT Apartments Corp. | BRT | 6.22% | 4.07% | 2.15% | $464 |
| UMH Properties Inc. | HMU | 5.88% | 4.35% | 1.52% | $1,005 |
| NexPoint Residential Trust Inc. | NXRT | 5.82% | 2.64% | 3.18% | $1,477 |
| Apartment Inc.ome REIT Corp | AIRC | 5.60% | 4.16% | 1.44% | $6,672 |
| Ventas Inc. | VTR | 5.56% | 3.73% | 1.83% | $19,282 |
| Independence Realty Trust Inc. | IRT | 5.33% | 2.74% | 2.59% | $4,541 |
| Chaw nyob | CSR | 5.26% | 3.70% | 1.56% | $1,215 |
| Washington Real Estate Investment Trust | LIS | 5.02% | 3.39% | 1.63% | $1,753 |
| Source: FactSet |
Tsev so thiab leisure thaj chaw
Nov yog yim REITs uas xauj tawm tsev so thiab / lossis chaw so thiab dhau qhov screen:
| lub tuam txhab | Ticker | Kwv yees 2023 AFFO yield | Cov nyiaj faib tawm tam sim no | Kwv yees "headroom" | Kev lag luam cap. ($ lab) |
| EPR Cov Khoom Muag | EPR | 10.80% | 7.13% | 3.67% | $3,470 |
| RLJ Lodging Trust | RLJ | 10.75% | 1.56% | 9.19% | $2,085 |
| Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. | PK | 10.48% | 0.27% | 10.21% | $3,287 |
| Pebblebrook Kev Ntseeg Tsev So | PEB | 10.12% | 0.21% | 9.91% | $2,511 |
| Apple Hospitality REIT Inc. | APLE | 9.62% | 5.03% | 4.58% | $3,820 |
| Host Hotels & Resorts Inc. | HST | 8.47% | 2.57% | 5.90% | $13,366 |
| Gaming thiab Leisure Properties Inc. | GLPI | 7.36% | 5.53% | 1.83% | $13,090 |
| VICI Khoom Inc. | VICI | 5.98% | 4.24% | 1.74% | $32,736 |
| Source: FactSet |
Chaw Haujlwm
Nov yog 10 REITs uas tuav cov tsev ua haujlwm uas dhau qhov screen:
| lub tuam txhab | Ticker | Kwv yees 2023 AFFO yield | Cov nyiaj faib tawm tam sim no | Kwv yees "headroom" | Kev lag luam cap. ($ lab) |
| Brandywine Ntsuas Kev Ntseeg | BDN | 10.88% | 9.27% | 1.61% | $1,407 |
| Hudson Pacific Properties Inc. | HPP | 9.91% | 7.28% | 2.62% | $1,945 |
| SL Ntsuab Realty Corp. | SLG | 9.85% | 8.11% | 1.74% | $2,957 |
| Douglas Emmett Inc. | NTAWM | 9.25% | 5.48% | 3.77% | $3,595 |
| Highwoods Properties Inc. | HIW | 8.51% | 6.27% | 2.24% | $3,358 |
| Paramount Group Inc. | PGRE | 8.25% | 4.30% | 3.95% | $1,625 |
| Cousins Properties Inc. | rau qhov | 7.38% | 4.52% | 2.86% | $4,290 |
| Corporate Office Properties Trust | ofc | 7.17% | 4.18% | 2.99% | $2,959 |
| E-mail tsoom fwv cov khoom Inc. | DEA | 6.95% | 5.75% | 1.19% | $1,673 |
| City Office REIT Inc. | CIO | 6.94% | 6.45% | 0.50% | $516 |
| Source: FactSet |
Khw muag khoom
Nov yog 10 REITs uas feem ntau xauj tawm cov khoom muag muag uas dhau qhov screen:
| lub tuam txhab | Ticker | Kwv yees 2023 AFFO yield | Cov nyiaj faib tawm tam sim no | Kwv yees "headroom" | Kev lag luam cap. ($ lab) |
| Macerich Co. | MAC | 14.68% | 6.02% | 8.65% | $2,139 |
| Simon Cov Khoom Group. | SPG | 10.53% | 6.56% | 3.97% | $34,922 |
| Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc. | SKT | 9.21% | 4.93% | 4.28% | $1,694 |
| Ntsuj Plig Realty Capital Inc. | SRC | 8.69% | 6.27% | 2.42% | $5,763 |
| Whitestone REIT | WSR | 8.51% | 4.59% | 3.92% | $516 |
| Khw Capital Corp. | STOR | 8.35% | 5.58% | 2.77% | $7,802 |
| RPT Kev Ua Haujlwm | RPT | 8.11% | 5.13% | 2.98% | $863 |
| Kite Realty Pab Pawg Sib Koom | KRG | 7.80% | 4.03% | 3.76% | $4,455 |
| Shaub Realty Corp. | GTY | 7.25% | 5.42% | 1.83% | $1,413 |
| Acadia Realty Trust | AKR | 7.22% | 4.33% | 2.89% | $1,577 |
| Source: FactSet |
kev sib txuas lus
Ntawm no yog tag nrho tsib lub tuam txhab uas dhau qhov kev tshuaj ntsuam uas xauj tawm kev sib txuas lus infrastructure, lossis, nyob rau hauv rooj plaub ntawm Outfront Media Inc.
TAWM,
billboards:
| lub tuam txhab | Ticker | Kwv yees 2023 AFFO yield | Cov nyiaj faib tawm tam sim no | Kwv yees "headroom" | Kev lag luam cap. ($ lab) |
| Uniti Group Inc. | CHAV TSEV | 18.95% | 6.24% | 12.72% | $2,282 |
| Outfront Media Inc. | TAWM | 11.73% | 6.40% | 5.33% | $3,078 |
| Crown Castle Inc. | CCI | 4.39% | 3.36% | 1.02% | $75,713 |
| American Ntauwd Corp. | AMT | 4.11% | 2.09% | 2.02% | $123,138 |
| SBA Communications Corp. Class A | SBAC | 3.99% | 0.85% | 3.1s 3% | $35,920 |
| Source: FactSet |
Cov chaw zov me nyuam
Peb cov ntaub ntawv-center REITs dhau qhov screen:
| lub tuam txhab | Ticker | Kwv yees 2023 AFFO yield | Cov nyiaj faib tawm tam sim no | Kwv yees "headroom" | Kev lag luam cap. ($ lab) |
| Iron Mountain Inc. | IRM | 7.62% | 4.54% | 3.08% | $15,828 |
| Digital Realty Trust Inc. | DLR | 5.56% | 3.88% | 1.67% | $36,110 |
| Equinix Inc. | EQIX | 4.74% | 1.85% | 2.89% | $61,154 |
| Source: FactSet |
Kev cia tus kheej
Rau peb qeb kawg, tsib qhov kev khaws cia tus kheej REITs dhau qhov screen:
| lub tuam txhab | Ticker | Kwv yees 2023 AFFO yield | Cov nyiaj faib tawm tam sim no | Kwv yees "headroom" | Kev lag luam cap. ($ lab) |
| Lub Teb Chaws Cia Cov Neeg Koom Tes Cia Siab | NSA | 5.35% | 4.03% | 1.31% | $5,007 |
| CubeSmart | LUB VOOS XWMFAB | 5.27% | 3.52% | 1.75% | $10,958 |
| Life Storage Inc. | LSI | 4.83% | 3.21% | 1.62% | $11,340 |
| Public Cia | PSA | 4.64% | 2.33% | 2.31% | $60,213 |
| Ntxiv Chaw Cia Inc. | EXR | 4.27% | 2.89% | 1.38% | $27,811 |
| Source: FactSet |
Yog tias koj txaus siab rau qhov chaw REIT, koj yuav tsum ua koj tus kheej kev tshawb fawb thiab khaws koj cov hom phiaj kev nqis peev hauv siab - kev loj hlob, nyiaj tau los lossis ob qho tib si - thiab npaj kom muaj kev cog lus rau lub sijhawm ntev, uas txhais tau tias ntau xyoo.
Ntawm cov REITs teev nyob rau hauv cov lus, saum toj no, Malhotra muaj "yuav" kev ntsuam xyuas ntawm Ventas Inc.
VTR,
Welltown Inc.
Zoo,
Medical Properties Inc.
MPW,
Paramount Group Inc.
PGRE
thiab Duke Realty (uas tam sim no ua lag luam nyob rau hauv txoj kab nrog Prologis, nyob rau hauv kev cia siab ntawm kev sib koom ua tiav).
Thaum nug txog dab tsi yuav-rated REITs muaj sib xws, Malhotra tau hais tias: "Cov no yog cov tuam txhab, raws li cov tib neeg, uas peb ntseeg tias tus nqi hluav taws xob yuav nyob twj ywm."
Nws kuj tau hais tias txhua yam tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm cov ncauj lus tseem ceeb, suav nrog, rau REITs kev noj qab haus huv, kev laus ntawm cov pej xeem.
Hnov los ntawm Ray Dalio ntawm MarketWatch's Cov tswv yim tshiab zoo tshaj plaws hauv Nyiaj Festival Lub Cuaj Hlis 21 thiab 22 hauv New York. Tus thawj saib xyuas nyiaj txiag muaj kev xav zoo txog qhov twg kev lag luam mus.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-dividend-stocks-can-protect-you-as-the-federal-reserve-slows-the-economy-11661443792?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
Cov nyiaj faib tawm no tuaj yeem tiv thaiv koj raws li Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve ua rau kev lag luam qeeb
Nrog Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve Thawj Tswj Hwm Jerome Powell tau teem sijhawm los hais lus tseem ceeb rau hnub Friday, cov tub ua lag luam thaum kawg yuav pib coj nws ntawm nws cov lus: Lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv tuam txhab yuav tswj hwm tus cwj pwm tsis txaus ntseeg los tswj kev nce nqi siab tshaj plaws hauv plaub xyoos. Qhov no txhais tau tias kev lag luam nyiaj txiag yuav nyob twj ywm tsis hloov pauv, txawm tias tsis ntev los no cov khoom lag luam sib tw.
Muaj ntau qhov laj thawj los txiav txim siab txog kev nqis peev hauv vaj tsev, lossis REITs, vim tias muaj kev nyab xeeb zoo los muab cov nyiaj tau los tsis tu ncua thaum kev nce nyiaj nce siab thiab ua ntej yuav muaj kev lag luam qeeb.
Hauv qab no yog ib qho screen ntawm kev ncaj ncees REITs xav tias yuav tsim kom muaj nyiaj txaus txaus los pab kom cov nyiaj faib nce ntxiv hauv 2023.
Nyob rau hauv lub Xav paub kem nyob rau lub Yim Hli 24, Steve Goldstein tau sau tseg qhov kev kwv yees ntawm qhov tshiab "supercycle hauv kev nce nqi thiab cov paj laum"los ntawm Dario Perkins, tus thawj coj ntawm kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb macro ntawm TS Lombard.
Perkins cia siab tias cov paj laum mus sij hawm ntev yuav nce siab dua, thiab qhia tias xyoo 2020 yuav xav kom cov tub ua lag luam coj "kev paub ntau dua rau kev faib khoom vaj khoom tsev."
Tsiv mus deb ntawm cov chaw muab kev pabcuam uas tau tswj hwm lub khw muag nyuj mus txog xyoo 2021, nws ntseeg tias qhov yuav ua haujlwm zoo tshaj plaws yog faib rau cov khoom muaj nqis, suav nrog av.
Kev rhuav tshem REIT sector
Kev nqis peev peev hauv vaj tse tuaj yeem muaj ntau yam, tab sis lub ntsiab lus tseem ceeb yog lawv dhau los ntawm feem ntau cov nyiaj tau los rau cov tswv lag luam kom tswj tau cov se-zoo REIT qauv.
Muaj ob pawg loj ntawm REITs: Cov REITs qiv nyiaj, uas qiv nyiaj rau cov lag luam lossis cov neeg qiv nyiaj hauv tsev thiab / lossis nqis peev hauv tsev qiv nyiaj rov qab, thiab kev sib npaug REITs, uas yog tus tswv lag luam lossis vaj tse thiab xauj nws tawm.
REITs yog ib puag ncig, nrog rau kev ntsuas ntsuas raws li cov paj laum nce. Cov txiaj ntsig no tuaj yeem tshaj tawm tshwj xeeb rau kev qiv nyiaj REITs, vim tias kev qiv qiv nyiaj qiv lag luam qeeb thaum cov paj laum nce.
Txog tam sim no xyoo no, txog Lub Yim Hli 24, S&P 500 kev lag luam vaj tsev poob qis 15%, thaum tag nrho S&P 500
SPX
poob 12%, ob qho tib si nrog cov nyiaj faib rov ua lag luam.
Kev saib xyuas ntev ntev yuav ua rau koj xav tsis thoob. S&P Dow Jones Indices tau cais cov khoom vaj khoom tsev los ntawm kev lag luam nyiaj txiag hauv 2016. Tab sis yog tias peb nqaim mus rau S&P 500 REIT pawg kev lag luam rau kev ntsuas kev ua haujlwm ntev, qhov 20-xyoo nruab nrab txhua xyoo rov qab los yog 9.9%, me ntsis ua ntej. ntawm S&P 500's 20-xyoo nruab nrab rov qab los ntawm 9.8%.
REITs los ntawm qeb
Ntau hom REITs dhau los ntawm kev lag luam sib txawv. Piv txwv li, tsev so REITs thiab lawv cov neeg xauj tsev tau raug kev txom nyem loj heev nyob rau theem pib ntawm tus kabmob coronavirus, pib nrog kev kaw virtual ntawm kev lag luam mus ncig hauv thawj ib nrab xyoo 2020.
Ntau REITs tau tsom mus rau qhov chaw khaws khoom thiab chaw xa khoom, uas tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm kev xauj tsev txhua xyoo nce ob npaug hauv xyoo tas los no, raws li Vikram Malhotra, tus thawj coj saib xyuas vaj tsev ntawm Mizuho.
Tab sis Amazon.com Inc.
AMZN
hais hauv nws thawj lub quarter nyiaj txiag tshaj tawm nyob rau lub Plaub Hlis uas tom qab ob npaug ntawm qhov loj ntawm nws qhov kev ua tiav hauv ob xyoos nkaus xwb, nws "tsis tau caum lub cev lossis cov neeg ua haujlwm muaj peev xwm" thiab tau "squarely tsom rau kev txhim kho cov khoom tsim tau thiab cov nqi ua tau zoo" hauv nws cov khoom xa tuaj.
Thaum lub sijhawm xam phaj, Malhotra tau hais tias tom qab Amazon cov lus tshaj tawm, nws thiab cov npoj yaig tau "saib thiab hnov hauv kev ua lag luam tias Amazon tau tso cov khoom lag luam rau ntawm lub lag luam sublet."
"Yog li tus neeg ua si loj tshaj plaws hauv kev lag luam e-lag luam tau hais rau kev lag luam nws muaj ntau dhau lawm thiab ua kom muaj txiaj ntsig, thiab qhov ntawd ua rau cov khoom lag luam xa tawm mus rau de-rate," nws hais.
Prologis Inc., UA
PLD
yog qhov kev lag luam loj tshaj plaws hauv US REIT hauv cov chaw khaws khoom thiab chaw xa khoom. Lub tuam txhab teev npe Amazon, FedEx Corp.
FDX,
Tsev Depot Inc.
HD,
Geodis thiab Walmart Inc.
WMT
raws li nws tsib tus neeg siv khoom loj tshaj plaws thaum kawg ntawm 2021, nrog Amazon xauj 24 lab square feet, lossis 7% ntawm nws tag nrho.
Shares ntawm Prologis tau nqis 21% rau 2022 txog Lub Yim Hli 24, nrog cov nyiaj faib rov qab. Cov khoom lag luam cov nyiaj faib tawm yog kwv yees li 2.5%. Prologis tau teeb tsa kom tau Duke Realty Corp.
NYOO
los ntawm tag nrho cov khoom lag luam muaj nqis ntawm $ 26 billion thaum nws tau tshaj tawm rau lub Rau Hli.
Mizuho muaj qhov ntsuas nruab nrab ntawm Prologis, uas Malhotra tau hais tias "tsis muaj kev pom zoo." Nws paub tseeb tias - ntawm 17 tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas los ntawm FactSet, 13 tus nqi sib koom "yuav" lossis qhov sib npaug. Tus so yog qhov ntsuas nruab nrab.
Nws tau hais ntxiv tias Mizuho tab tom saib xyuas cov neeg ua haujlwm logistics thib peb, xws li XPO Logistics Inc.
XPO,
FedEx thiab United Parcel Service Inc.
ib ce
rau cov cim qhia ntawm kev thov qeeb yog tias kev lag luam poob qis heev.
Nrog rau txhua yam uas tau hais, tej zaum yuav muaj cov nyiaj hauv cov khoom siv rau cov tsev khaws khoom / chaw xa khoom REITs: Malhotra xav tias kev loj hlob ntawm cov nqi xauj tsev hauv qhov chaw yuav qeeb mus rau "nruab nrab mus rau ib tus lej siab" los ntawm qhov tam sim no ntau dua 10%. Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Ua Haujlwm tau hais tias Consumer Price Index nyob rau hauv Lub Xya hli ntuj pom ib tug 8.5% nce los ntawm ib xyoo dhau los. Qhov ntawd tau txhim kho los ntawm 9.1% hauv lub hli dhau los. Tej zaum nws yuav tsis dhau qhov kev nthuav dav kom cia siab tias REIT cov tswv lag luam yuav tuaj yeem khaws lawv cov nqi xauj tsev kom phim lossis tuav cov pace ntawm kev nce nqi.
Qhov no yog qhov uas koj tus kheej xav los ua si, raws li koj tus kheej kev tshawb fawb. Puas yog qhov txuas ntxiv mus rau kev yuav khoom hauv online thiab xav tau kev xa khoom sai ua rau Prologis thiab nws cov neeg sib tw ua tau zoo tshaj li tsib mus rau 10 xyoo tom ntej? Prologis 'tsim tsib xyoos tag nrho rov qab txawm tias Lub Yim Hli 24 yog 138% (piv nrog 85% rau S&P 500), txawm tias lub xyoo no loj rub rov qab.
Kev tshuaj xyuas cov kev ncaj ncees REITs
Txhawm rau saib dav dav ntawm US-daim ntawv teev cov peev nyiaj lag luam kev ntseeg siab, peb pib nrog 185 suav nrog hauv Russell 3000 Index
RUA.
Qhov ntsuas no sawv cev txog 98% ntawm US cov khoom lag luam, raws li FactSet.
Tom qab ntawd peb saib cov peev txheej ntawm txhua REIT thiab tshem tawm tag nrho cov nyiaj qiv REITs coj cov npe mus rau 158 lub tuam txhab. Peb txiav txuas ntxiv mus rau 112 lub tuam txhab uas qhov kev pom zoo kwv yees muaj nyob ntawm tsawg kawg tsib tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas los ntawm FactSet rau kev hloov nyiaj los ntawm kev ua haujlwm hauv 2023.
Ib txoj hauv kev los ntsuas lub tuam txhab cov peev nyiaj faib nyiaj tau los yog saib nws qhov kwv yees cov nyiaj tau los pub dawb - cov nyiaj seem tshuav tom qab kev siv peev nyiaj. Rau REITs, cov nyiaj los ntawm kev ua haujlwm (FFO) - qhov ntsuas tsis yog GAAP - feem ntau siv. FFO ntxiv amortization thiab depreciation (cov khoom tsis yog nyiaj ntsuab) rov qab rau cov nyiaj khwv tau los, thaum tsis suav cov nyiaj tau los ntawm kev muag khoom. Hloov cov nyiaj los ntawm kev ua haujlwm (AFFO) mus ntxiv, netting tawm cov peev txheej uas xav tau los tswj hwm cov peev txheej zoo.
Yog tias peb faib ib lub tuam txhab kwv yees AFFO los ntawm nws cov nqi tam sim no, peb muaj kwv yees AFFO yield. Qhov no tuaj yeem muab piv nrog cov txiaj ntsig tam sim no los saib seb puas muaj "lub taub hau" rau kev nce ntxiv - vam tias muaj ntau lub hauv paus.
Ntawm 112 qhov REITs tseem tshuav, 104 them nyiaj faib tawm thiab tau kwv yees 2023 headroom ntawm tsawg kawg yog 1.00% - uas yog peb qhov kawg txiav.
Peb muab 104 REITs rau hauv yim pawg dav. Qhov no tsis yog ib txwm yooj yim, vim tias REIT yuav muaj ntau haiv neeg. Yog li cov pawg yog ib qho kev sim tso txhua REIT hauv ib pab pawg raws li nws qhov kev lag luam hnyav tshaj plaws. Peb mam li sib sau ua ke me ntsis ntxiv mus rau cuaj pawg dav thiab txheeb lawv los ntawm kev cia siab rau 2023 AFFO yield.
Piv txwv li, cov tuam txhab warehousing / logistics yog nyob rau hauv qeb "kev lag luam". Peb mam li pib nrog qhov ntawd.
Muaj REITs
Ntawm no yog 10 qhov kev lag luam REITs uas dhau qhov screen, nrog qhov siab tshaj plaws AFFO yields rau 2023:
Nyem rau ntawm cov tickers kom paub ntau ntxiv txog txhua lub tuam txhab, suav nrog kev lag luam profile. Ces nyeem Tomi Kilgore cov ncauj lus kom ntxaws qhia txog cov ntaub ntawv muaj txiaj ntsig muaj pub dawb ntawm MarketWatch nplooj ntawv nqe lus.
Kev kho mob
Nov yog tag nrho cuaj REITs uas xauj tawm cov khoom kho mob thiab dhau qhov screen. Pawg no tsis suav nrog cov tuam txhab tsom mus rau cov tsev laus:
thaj
Cov pawg no suav nrog REITs uas muaj ib tsev neeg lossis ntau tsev neeg nyob, nrog rau cov tsev nyob hauv zej zog thiab cov tsev laus. Nov yog 10 thaj chaw REITs uas dhau qhov screen:
Tsev so thiab leisure thaj chaw
Nov yog yim REITs uas xauj tawm tsev so thiab / lossis chaw so thiab dhau qhov screen:
Chaw Haujlwm
Nov yog 10 REITs uas tuav cov tsev ua haujlwm uas dhau qhov screen:
Khw muag khoom
Nov yog 10 REITs uas feem ntau xauj tawm cov khoom muag muag uas dhau qhov screen:
kev sib txuas lus
Ntawm no yog tag nrho tsib lub tuam txhab uas dhau qhov kev tshuaj ntsuam uas xauj tawm kev sib txuas lus infrastructure, lossis, nyob rau hauv rooj plaub ntawm Outfront Media Inc.
TAWM,
billboards:
Cov chaw zov me nyuam
Peb cov ntaub ntawv-center REITs dhau qhov screen:
Kev cia tus kheej
Rau peb qeb kawg, tsib qhov kev khaws cia tus kheej REITs dhau qhov screen:
Yog tias koj txaus siab rau qhov chaw REIT, koj yuav tsum ua koj tus kheej kev tshawb fawb thiab khaws koj cov hom phiaj kev nqis peev hauv siab - kev loj hlob, nyiaj tau los lossis ob qho tib si - thiab npaj kom muaj kev cog lus rau lub sijhawm ntev, uas txhais tau tias ntau xyoo.
Ntawm cov REITs teev nyob rau hauv cov lus, saum toj no, Malhotra muaj "yuav" kev ntsuam xyuas ntawm Ventas Inc.
VTR,
Welltown Inc.
Zoo,
Medical Properties Inc.
MPW,
Paramount Group Inc.
PGRE
thiab Duke Realty (uas tam sim no ua lag luam nyob rau hauv txoj kab nrog Prologis, nyob rau hauv kev cia siab ntawm kev sib koom ua tiav).
Thaum nug txog dab tsi yuav-rated REITs muaj sib xws, Malhotra tau hais tias: "Cov no yog cov tuam txhab, raws li cov tib neeg, uas peb ntseeg tias tus nqi hluav taws xob yuav nyob twj ywm."
Nws kuj tau hais tias txhua yam tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm cov ncauj lus tseem ceeb, suav nrog, rau REITs kev noj qab haus huv, kev laus ntawm cov pej xeem.
Hnov los ntawm Ray Dalio ntawm MarketWatch's Cov tswv yim tshiab zoo tshaj plaws hauv Nyiaj Festival Lub Cuaj Hlis 21 thiab 22 hauv New York. Tus thawj saib xyuas nyiaj txiag muaj kev xav zoo txog qhov twg kev lag luam mus.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-dividend-stocks-can-protect-you-as-the-federal-reserve-slows-the-economy-11661443792?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo