Yog tias Asmeskas kev lag luam poob qis, ib tus neeg tsis nco qab qhia cov haujlwm ua lag luam.
Daim duab ua haujlwm dhau rau lub hlis dhau los yog coj tsis muaj dab tsi zoo li kev lag luam hauv kev poob qis, es tsis txhob tsim cov haujlwm ntawm qhov nrawm ntawm ze li 460,000 ib hlis.
Kev tshawb fawb los ntawm CNBC's Steve Liesman qhia tias thaum lub sijhawm poob qis, daim duab ua haujlwm yuav nyob deb dua, poob hauv av es tsis txhob nce. Ntau daim duab qhia thaum hnub Wednesday "Squawk Box”pab pleev xim rau daim duab.
Pab pawg CNBC tau saib cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag rov qab mus rau xyoo 1947. Nws tau qhia tias thaum tag nrho cov khoom lag luam hauv tebchaws tau tsis zoo rau rau lub hlis, ib yam li cov ntaub ntawv rau xyoo 2022, cov nyiaj them poob haujlwm poob los ntawm qhov nruab nrab ntawm ib nrab ntawm ib feem pua. Tab sis xyoo no, kev suav ua haujlwm tau nce 1%.
Cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm tib neeg kev sib raug zoo software tuam txhab UKG thim rov qab qhov kev xav, nrog cov ntaub ntawv sab hauv uas qhia tau hais tias cov haujlwm tau tsim nyob rau hauv txoj kab nrog Bureau of Labor Statistics suav.
Thaum kawg, Dallas Federal Reserve, hauv kev tshawb fawb tau tshaj tawm hnub Tuesday, tau hais tias nws qhov kev tshuaj xyuas ntawm ntau lub ntsiab lus pom tau pom "qhov ntsuas feem ntau - tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov ntsuas kev lag luam ua haujlwm - muab cov pov thawj muaj zog uas Asmeskas kev lag luam tsis poob rau hauv kev poob qis hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg" ntawm lub xyoo.
Ib cov ntaub ntawv taw qhia lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab cov kws tshawb fawb tau saib yog cov kev siv nyiaj ntawm tus kheej tiag tiag. Lawv pom tias kev noj haus feem ntau poob qis thaum muaj kev lag luam poob qis. Los ntawm qhov sib piv, qhov ntsuas tau nce ntxiv thaum thawj ib nrab ntawm 2022.
Txawm hais tias nrog lwm cov pov thawj qhia lwm yam, ntau tus neeg tawm tswv yim tau tsom mus rau cov ntsiab lus ntawm kev lag luam kev lag luam uas yog ob peb lub hlis twg ntawm kev loj hlob tsis zoo GDP. Thawj lub quarter poob qis 1.6%, thiab cov Lub quarter thib ob poob 0.9%, ua tau raws li tus qauv.
Lwm qhov tsis zoo ntawm lub xeev tam sim no yog tias txawm tias GDP poob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm kev nce nqi tiag tiag, kev lag luam ntawm lub hauv paus nominal tau loj hlob zoo thaum lub quarter thib ob. Nominal GDP nce 7.8% thaum lub sij hawm lub sij hawm, tab sis twb outweighed los ntawm ib tug 8.6% nyob rau hauv lub peb hlis ntuj nqi nce nqi.
Los ntawm qhov tsis sib xws, thaum lub sijhawm kev poob qis kawg hauv xyoo 2020, nominal GDP tau cog lus 3.9% hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg thiab 32.4% hauv lub quarter thib ob, thaum GDP tiag feem poob 5.1% thiab 31.2%.
St. Louis Fed Thawj Tswj Hwm James Bullard hais rau CNBC, thiab thaum lub sijhawm "Squawk Box," nws tsis xav tias kev lag luam nyob hauv kev lag luam poob qis, txawm hais tias nws tau poob siab ntau dua los ntawm kev poob qis thib ob.
Nws tau hais tias "Lub quarter thib ib qeeb kuv xav tias ... tej zaum yuav mob khaub thuas, tab sis lub quarter thib ob muaj kev cuam tshuam ntau dua," nws hais. Txawm hais tias qee lub hnab ris ntawm kev lag luam qeeb, "qhov ntawd tsis yog los ntawm nws tus kheej txhais tau tias koj nyob rau hauv kev lag luam vim koj pom qee qhov tsis zoo hauv qee qhov kev lag luam."
Cov ntaub ntawv tshiab tshaj plaws ntawm daim duab ua haujlwm tau tshaj tawm rau hnub Friday, thaum Lub Chaw Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Ua Haujlwm yuav tsum tau tshaj tawm txog cov nyiaj hli nce txog 258,000 rau Lub Xya Hli, raws li Dow Jones kwv yees. BLS cov ntaub ntawv ua ntej lub lim tiam no qhia tau tias qhov sib txawv ntawm kev qhib haujlwm thiab cov neeg ua haujlwm muaj tseem loj tab sis edging qis.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/03/these-charts-show-why-we-may-not-be-in-a-recession.html