Tsuas muaj ib qho 'cov cuab tam zoo meej' los tawm tsam txhua yam xov xwm phem uas tuaj yeem tuaj, hais tias tus kws tshaj lij no

Cov nyiaj daus las thiab nyiaj ntsuab tau yog ib qho ntawm cov neeg nyiam tshaj plaws rau cov tub ua lag luam thaum lawv taug kev pheej hmoo kev lag luam nrog cov nqi siab dua thiab kev nce nyiaj ntau dua, nrog rau kev ua tsov rog siab phem hauv Tebchaws Europe.

Tab sis peb hu nruab hnub los ntawm Warren Pies, co-founder thiab strategist ntawm 3 Kaum plaub kev tshawb fawb, pom zog li lub hedge rau tej xov xwm phem nyob rau hauv pipeline. Raws li nws tau sau tseg, tom qab xyoo ntawm kev txav mus rau qhov sib txawv, cov khoom vaj khoom tsev thiab cov ntawv cog lus tau poob ua ke.

"Kuv xav tias koj tsuas yog muaj peev xwm ua tau ntau ntxiv nyob rau yav tom ntej tam sim no qhov twg cov khoom lag luam thiab cov ntawv cog lus muaj kev cuam tshuam zoo. Muaj tsawg heev cov cuab tam uas tuaj yeem tiv thaiv cov kev pheej hmoo uas muaj nyob ntawd. Thiab kuv xav tias lub zog yog lub cuab tam zoo meej, "Pies hais hauv ib qho kev xam phaj uas luam tawm hnub Friday dhau los nrog Real Vision.

Thiab thaum Fed tuaj yeem sim nce mus txog thaum nws txo qis nqi hluav taws xob - qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb rau kev nce nyiaj nce ntxiv - lawv yuav tsis ua tiav raws li lawv "tsis tuaj yeem cuam tshuam tus thawj coj tseem ceeb ntawm cov roj tam sim no" - geopolitics, hais Pies.

Nws tau hais tias "Yog tias peb mus tom ntej tag nrho kev txiav txim siab rau Lavxias cov roj thiab tiag tiag tawm ntawm qhov tsis txaus ntseeg uas tab tom ua tam sim no thiab rov qab los, lub ntiaj teb yuav luv luv roj ntau," thiab qhov ntawd yuav tsim "ib heck ntawm kev lag luam," nws hais. "Cov roj yuav ua rau nws tus kheej ... yog vim li cas koj thiaj li yuav tsum muaj roj los ntawm lub zog hauv koj cov ntaub ntawv."

Raws li rau cov tuam txhab roj, Pies qhia kom nws yooj yim. "Koj tsis tas yuav ua txhua yam ntawm tuam txhab kev pheej hmoo lossis beta ntawm no. Yuav cov bellwethers, cov tuam txhab hluav taws xob loj, cov tuam txhab ua kua hluav taws xob.

"Yog tias koj xav ua kom sib txawv me ntsis lossis sab nraud ntawm cov qauv ntsuas, peb tseem nyiam lub kaus mom loj Canadian cov neeg tsim khoom vim tias lawv muaj tus nqi qis dua ntawm kev tsim khoom thiab kev saib xyuas capex ntau dua lossis tsawg dua," nws hais.

Qhov nws tau hais rau cov neeg siv khoom yog 10% mus rau 20% lub zog txoj haujlwm, muab cov haujlwm sawv cev rau 5% ntawm S&P 500
SPX,
-0.65%,
thiab tom qab ntawd whittle tus so ntawm cov ntaub ntawv rau cov tuam txhab zoo. Pies hais tias, "Koj tsuas yog sim ua rau cov khoom siv thev naus laus zis tsis muaj txiaj ntsig," Pies hais.

Tus kws tshaj lij pom qhov teeb tsa zoo sib xws rau qhov tshwm sim tom qab lub tshuab thev naus laus zis kawg ntawm xyoo 2000 thiab 2005, thaum kev lag luam nkag mus rau hauv cov khoom lag luam tshiab, thiab cov khoom lag luam zoo ntxiv rau lub zog lag luam, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog qhov chaw tech. Nws pom tias kev teeb tsa zoo sib xws ua si tawm xyoo tom ntej.

Xav paub ntau ntxiv txog lub sector: Plaub yog vim li cas koj yuav tsum yuav cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tam sim no yog tias koj yog tus neeg ua lag luam mus sij hawm ntev

Nyeem: Cov khoom lag luam yuav raug coj mus rau qhov mob ntau dua li ib nrab ntawm lub Cuaj Hli yog keeb kwm 'kev poob qis heev'

Ntsuas seb lub khw muag khoom puas tau saib hauv qab, Pies tau hais tias yog S&P 500 mus txog 3,600 cov neeg zej zog nws yuav pib yuav. “Peb tau ua nws lub sijhawm kawg. Thaum Lub Rau Hli 16, peb tau tshaj tawm tsab ntawv tshaj tawm rau peb cov neeg siv khoom tom qab tau poob qis txhua xyoo, hais tias muab 25% lossis 33% ntawm koj cov peev nyiaj rov qab rau hauv kev ua lag luam ntawm no. Thiab yog tias peb mus txog qhov ntawd dua, ces peb yuav ua tib yam txav mus. "

Thiab qhov phem tshaj plaws S&P 500 poob rau 3200? "Peb tuaj yeem yog lwm 10% qis dua, tab sis yog tias koj tsis tuaj yeem tuav 10% kev poob qis hauv kev lag luam no, koj nyob hauv kev lag luam tsis raug," Pies hais.

Hnov los ntawm Ray Dalio ntawm lub Cov tswv yim tshiab zoo tshaj plaws hauv Nyiaj Festival Lub Cuaj Hlis 21 thiab Cuaj Hlis 22 hauv New York. Tus thawj tswj hwm nyiaj txiag muaj txiaj ntsig zoo ntawm qhov chaw kev lag luam mus.

Cov kev lag luam

stocks
DJIA,
-0.72%

SPX,
-0.65%

COMP,
-0.14%
yog txav qis, nrog Cov Nqi Nyiaj Txiag
TUBMUSD 02Y,
3.966%

TUBMUSD 10Y,
3.570%
kuj poob thiab nqi roj
CL.1,
-2.13%
kuj mus rau sab qab teb. Tus duas
DXY,
+ 0.20%
tau txais lwm qhov kev txhawb nqa loj thiab bitcoin
BTCUSD,
-1.29%
yog hover cia li qis dua $19,000.

Lub buzz

Ford
F,
-9.54%
yog poob rau hauv premarket tom qab nws ceeb toom Kev nce nqi tau tsav cov nqi khoom siv los ntawm $ 1 nphom, nrog rau cov khoom tsis txaus ua rau ntau lub tsheb tsis tiav, txawm hais tias lub tuam txhab pib daig rau nws cov kev kwv yees txhua xyoo.

SPAC 'Vajntxwv' Chamath Palihapitiya yog winding ob lub tsheb
IPOD,
-0.25%

IPOF,
-0.19%
tom qab tsis pom cov tuam txhab lag luam hauv lub sijhawm.

Lub tsev qoj-tsheb tuam tsev Peloton
PTON,
+ 2.72%
yog qhia a $3,195 rowing tshuab.

Kua
AAPL,
+ 2.23%
 is nce tus nqi ntawm cov apps thiab hauv-app yuav khoom thoob plaws thaj tsam ntawm Asia thiab txhua lub tebchaws uas siv nyiaj euro. Shares swb.

Lub Swedish krona
SEKUSD,
-0.86%
tab tom poob txawm tias tom qab Riksbank tau nce cov paj laum loj dua li qhov xav tau 1%. Sib nrug los ntawm ob hnub Fed lub rooj sib tham uas pib hnub Tuesday, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank thiab Norges Bank tseem yuav ntsib lub lim tiam no.

Cov ntaub ntawv tshiab qhia tau hais tias tsev nyob pib tau muaj zog nyob rau lub yim hli ntuj, tab sis tsev tso cai poob.

Qhov zoo tshaj plaws ntawm lub vev xaib

Cov ntu tshiab ntawm 'Serial' podcast xav tau tom qab Adnan Syed qhov kev txiav txim siab tua neeg raug thim rov qab

Thawj Tswj Hwm Biden hais tias kev kis thoob qhov txhia chaw tau dhau lawm, tab sis 400 txog 500 tus neeg nyob rau ib hnub tseem tuag

Brad Pitt thiab Nick Cave ua lawv cov yeeb yam debut hauv Finland.

Daim phiaj qhia

"Dab tsi yuav muaj kev puas tsuaj loj rau qee lub hlis dhau los tau dhau los ua kom tswj tau txog tam sim no," note strategists ntawm DWS, nyob rau hauv kev hais txog cov nqi hluav taws xob siab hauv Tebchaws Europe, tshwj xeeb hauv lub tebchaws Yelemes tom qab Russia tau tag nrho tab sis nres kev xa tawm roj.

Lawv hais tias yog vim li cas ob qho laj thawj: Lub teb chaws Yelemees tab tom nce roj cia sai dua li qhov xav tau thiab kev siv tau poob qis heev raws li lawv daim ntawv qhia hauv qab no qhia. Thaum lub caij ntuj no hnyav lossis peb tuaj yeem ua ntej, "tam sim no peb tab tom pom tias kev lag luam Western hloov pauv tau li cas thaum ntsib nrog kev ntxhov siab tshwj xeeb," Martin Moryson, tus thawj coj ntawm European economist.

Nyeem: Lub teb chaws Yelemees econ. Minister hais tias natural gas cia yuav 'kub' tom qab lub caij ntuj no

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Cov no yog cov tickers nquag tshaj plaws ntawm MarketWatch thaum 6 teev sawv ntxov Eastern:

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