Xyoo no tsis shaping mus ua qhov phem tshaj plaws hauv keeb kwm Asmeskas rau qhov sib npaug 60% Tshuag / 40% daim ntawv cog lus.
Nws yog ib qho tseem ceeb uas yuav tau taw qhia qhov no tsis yog los kho cov lus piav qhia txog keeb kwm tsis tseeb uas tau nthuav tawm nyob ib ncig ntawm qee qhov ntawm Wall Street - cov lus piav qhia uas kuv tau pom tau hais txog ib nrab-teev lub sijhawm nyob rau ob peb lub lis piam dhau los. Nws kuj tseem ceeb heev vim tias cov neeg so haujlwm thiab lwm tus neeg uas nqis peev hauv cov ntaub ntawv sib npaug tuaj yeem raug ntxias los teb impetuously yog tias lawv ntseeg tias qhov lawv tau raug kev txom nyem xyoo no tsis tau ntsib dua.
Nws feem ntau twv yuav raug hu tau tshwm sim ua ntej, raws li kuv yuav tham hauv ib pliag.
Tab sis ua ntej, tsis muaj qhov tsis lees paub tias nws yog lub xyoo tsis zoo rau cov khoom lag luam sib npaug / daim ntawv cog lus. Koj qhov kev poob txhua xyoo mus txog Lub Cuaj Hli 15 yuav yog 20.4% yog tias koj cov ntaub ntawv khaws cia 60% rau Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund
TSWV,
thiab 40% rau Vanguard Long Investment Grade Fund
VWESX,
Rau tag nrho xyoo 2021, qhov sib piv, cov ntaub ntawv no yuav tau nce 14.4%, raws li cov ntaub ntawv FactSet. Nws yuav ua tau zoo dua hauv 2020, nce 18.7%.
Nrog rau ob tus lej nce zoo li cov ntawd, ntau tus neeg so haujlwm tau ua tsis zoo, xav tias yuav muaj qee yam zoo sib xws rau xyoo no thiab. Tab sis thaum peb nthuav peb lub zeem muag mus rau lub sij hawm ntev, peb pom tias 60% / 40% cov ntaub ntawv kev ua tau zoo xyoo dhau los, thaum phem tshaj qhov nruab nrab ntawm keeb kwm, tsis yog qhov phem tshaj. Qhov tseeb, koj tsis tas yuav rov qab mus kom deb li deb mus nrhiav lub xyoo uas tseem phem dua: Hauv xyoo 2008, 60% / 40% cov ntaub ntawv tau nqis peev hauv VTSMX thiab VWESX poob 21.3%.
Txhawm rau txiav txim siab xyoo twg yog qhov phem tshaj plaws rau kev sib npaug ntawm cov khoom lag luam / daim ntawv cog lus, kuv tig mus rau cov ntaub ntawv keeb kwm yav dhau los rov qab mus rau 1793 sau los ntawm Edward McQuarrie, tus kws tshaj lij ntawm Leavey School of Business ntawm Santa Clara University. Vim tias McQuarrie's series ntawm 12-hli rov qab los ntawm 200+ xyoo dhau los yog suav rau ntawm Lub Ib Hlis-rau-Lub Ib Hlis es tsis yog lub Kaum Ob Hlis-rau-Lub Kaum Ob Hlis, lawv tsis nruj heev rau xyoo rov qab. Tab sis kev txiav txim siab loj lawv muab cov ntsiab lus keeb kwm tsim nyog.
Lub sijhawm 12 lub hlis tsis zoo rau cov ntaub ntawv sib npaug yog txij Lub Ib Hlis 1931 txog Lub Ib Hlis 1932, tshaj qhov uas 60% S&P 500/40% ntev peev qib qiv nyiaj poob 36.3%, raws li McQuarrie cov kev suav, uas muab cov nyiaj faib thiab paj rau hauv tus account. Tom ntej no-qhov phem tshaj plaws tshwm sim nyob rau 12 lub hlis txog Lub Ib Hlis 1842, thaum xws li cov ntaub ntawv poob 27.1%. Hauv qhov thib peb yog lub sijhawm 12 lub hlis txog Lub Ib Hlis 1938, thaum nws poob 24.5%.
Yog tias 60% / 40% portfolio xyoo no nyob twj ywm rau qhov seem ntawm 2022, nws yuav yog qhov thib tsib-qhov phem tshaj txij li xyoo 1793. Tsis zoo. Tab sis tsis yog qhov phem tshaj thiab.
Dab tsi tshwm sim tom qab xyoo dhau los tsis zoo rau 60:40 cov ntaub ntawv
Ib qho laj thawj zoo dua tsis txhob dhia tawm ntawm pob tsuas yog qhov ua tau zoo ntawm 60% / 40% cov ntaub ntawv ua haujlwm tom qab lub sijhawm dhau los uas nws poob ntau lossis ntau dua li nws muaj xyoo no. Tshaj li tsib xyoos tom ntej tom qab cov sijhawm dhau los, cov ntaub ntawv khaws cia tau rov qab zoo tshaj qhov nruab nrab-raws li koj tuaj yeem pom los ntawm cov lus hauv qab no. (Kuv tsim lub rooj siv McQuarrie's database.)
| 60% / 40% portfolio nruab nrab txhua xyoo rov qab los tom qab 5 xyoo | |
| Txhua xyoo txij li xyoo 1793 | 7.2% |
| Txhua xyoo uas 60% / 40% portfolio poob los ntawm tsawg kawg yog 20% | 13% |
Qhov sib txawv no yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm 94% kev ntseeg siab, tsuas yog 1 feem pua ntawm cov ntsiab lus txaj muag ntawm 95% kev ntseeg siab qib uas cov neeg txheeb cais feem ntau siv thaum txiav txim siab tias tus qauv yog qhov tseeb. Raws li qhov kev xav tias yav tom ntej yuav zoo li 229 xyoo dhau los, yog li ntawd, koj yuav tsum tsis txhob nrawm dhau los pov cov phuam ntawm koj cov khoom sib npaug / daim ntawv cog lus.
Xav txog nws li no: 60% / 40% cov ntaub ntawv zoo nkauj rov qab mus sij hawm ntev yog them nyiaj rau qhov kev pheej hmoo uas koj yuav raug kev txom nyem ib xyoos zoo li 2022. Cia siab tias yuav ntes cov khoom xa rov qab thaum zam lawv qhov kev pheej hmoo yog qhov kev xav zoo nkauj, zoo li xav tau. ib yam dab tsi rau tsis muaj dab tsi.
Nrog qhov koj xav tau tam sim no koj them koj cov nuj nqis.
Mark Hulbert yog cov uas tau ua haujlwm rau MarketWatch li niaj zaus. Nws Hulbert Ratings taug qab cov ntawv xov xwm kev nqis peev uas them tus nqi them tus nqi yuav raug kuaj. Nws hu tau rau ntawm [email tiv thaiv].
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-worst-year-in-us-history-for-the-60-40-portfolio-11663342923?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo