Tom qab a pib dismal mus rau xyoo, lub Dow Jones muaj qhov nruab nrab tsuas yog capped nws lub hli zoo tshaj plaws txij li xyoo 1976, defying cov kev kwv yees ntawm ntau tus kws tshuaj ntsuam Wall Street.
Tab sis tsis yog txhua txhua.
Lub ntiaj teb sab saum toj stock market strategist, Morgan Stanley Tus thawj coj ntawm kev nqis peev Mike Wilson, pom qhov kev rov qab los tsis ntev los no, thiab nws tab tom ua raws nws rab phom txog yam yuav los tom ntej.
Nyob ze thaum pib ntawm Lub Kaum Hli, Wilson tig "tactically bullish" ntawm lub khw lag luam, sib cav tias cov tub ua lag luam tau dhau los ua kev xav tsis zoo txog kev nce nqi thiab Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve cov paj laum nce siab, uas txhais tau hais tias kev sib tw yuav yog txoj hauv kev.
Wilson piav qhia thaum tham txog nws qhov kev hu yav dhau los hauv hnub Monday Kev xav ntawm Kev Ua Lag Luam podcast. "Tam sim no peb tau mus txog qhov chaw uas ob qho tib si kev lag luam thiab cov khw muag khoom lag luam yuav raug nqi ntau dhau ...
Wilson ntseeg tias S&P 500 tuaj yeem ncav cuag 4150, lossis kwv yees li 7% saum toj no theem tam sim no, thaum lub sijhawm luv luv no-paub rau cov neeg saib xyuas kev lag luam raws li kev lag luam dais. Tab sis nws kuj tau qhia meej tias lub sijhawm zoo yog ib ntus.
"Qhov kev hu no yog yuav luag tag nrho ntawm technicals, ntau dua li cov hauv paus ntsiab lus, uas tseem tsis txhawb nqa feem ntau ntawm cov nqi sib npaug thiab S&P 500," Wilson tau hais. "Peb paub tias kev tawm tsam ib qho kev xav tseem ceeb hauv lub sijhawm luv luv tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev phom sij-thiab tej zaum ua tsis ncaj ncees-tab sis qhov ntawd yog ib feem ntawm peb txoj haujlwm. Nws zoo li kev sib tsoo ob zaug hauv golf - nyuaj ua, tab sis koj tseem yuav tsum tau sim. "
Hauv tsab ntawv tshawb fawb hnub Sunday cais, Wilson tau ceeb toom tias "qis qis rau S&P 500 tseem ua ntej tom qab qhov kev tawm tsam no tiav." Thiab tom qab cov qis qis no, CIO cia siab tias S&P 500 yuav siv sijhawm yim lub hlis kom rov qab mus rau qib tam sim no.
Tsis txhob hnov qab txog 'hluav taws' thiab 'ice'
Tau ntau tshaj ib xyoos tam sim no, Wilson thiab nws pab pawg kws tshaj lij ntawm Morgan Stanley tau sib cav tias kev lag luam Tshuag tab tom ntsib kev sib xyaw ua ke ntawm kev lag luam headwinds, uas nws hu ua. "hluav taws" thiab "ice."
Ntawm ib sab tes, nce nqi thiab Fed qhov kev sim los tawm tsam nws nrog cov paj laum ua haujlwm ua "hluav taws" tawm tsam cov khoom lag luam, Wilson hais tias, txo qis lawv cov nqi qis dua li cov nqi nce thoob plaws hauv pawg thawj coj rau cov tuam txhab. Thiab tib lub sijhawm, qeeb qeeb kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam, los yog "ice," yog rub cov neeg siv khoom siv thiab cov peev txheej tau txais txiaj ntsig.
Wilson ntseeg hais tias kom txog rau thaum qhov kev sib xyaw tshuaj lom no raug coj mus rau hauv cov tuam txhab thiab cov nyiaj tau los kwv yees raug txiav, cov khoom lag luam tau poob ntxiv. CIO kuj tau sau tseg tias feem ntau cov tuam txhab txiav txim siab "punt" ntawm kev muab cov lus qhia rau 2023 cov nyiaj tau los hauv peb lub hlis twg.
Raws li qhov tshwm sim, txawm tias cov nyiaj khwv tau los tsis muaj zog, 12-hli tom ntej cov nyiaj tau los ntawm ib feem (EPS) kev kwv yees tau tseem "kuj tsis hloov."
Nws tau sau tias "Qhov no yog vim li cas thawj qhov ntsuas [S&P 500] tsis poob rau hauv peb qhov kev xav," nws sau. "Peb xav tias qhov kev sib tw tam sim no hauv S&P 500 muaj ob txhais ceg mus rau 4000 txog 4150 ua ntej qhov tseeb tau teeb tsa nyob rau hauv qhov deb npaum li cas 2023 EPS kwv yees yuav tsum tau nqis los."
Hauv Wilson cov ntaub ntawv hauv paus, kev kwv yees nyiaj tau los thaum kawg yuav poob qis hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg thiab kev lag luam dais yuav xaus, nrog rau S&P 500 nws thiaj li rov qab mus rau 3,900 los ntawm nruab nrab-2023.
Tab sis yog tias kev lag luam poob qis, nws hais tias qhov ntsuas xiav-chip tuaj yeem poob rau tsuas yog 3,350 nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, lossis qee qhov 18% ntawm qib tam sim no.
Zaj dab neeg no yog thaum chiv keeb los Fortune.com
Ntau los ntawm Fortune:
Tus nqi hauv tsev tau poob sai dua tam sim no hauv 2006 - Redfin tus CEO nyuam qhuav qhia vim li cas
Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/world-top-stock-strategist-called-162631029.html