Ib qho kev lag luam-kev lag luam paradox, uas xov xwm tsis zoo txog kev lag luam tau pom tias yog xov xwm zoo rau kev ncaj ncees, yuav tau khiav nws txoj kev. Yog tias muaj, cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum cia siab tias cov xov xwm tsis zoo yuav yog xov xwm tsis zoo rau cov khoom lag luam mus rau xyoo tshiab - thiab tej zaum yuav muaj ntau.
Tiamsis ua ntej, vim li cas txoj xov zoo yuav yog xov xwm phem? Cov tub ua lag luam tau siv 2022 feem ntau tsom rau Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve thiab nws cov kev nrawm nrawm ntawm kev nce qib loj uas tsom rau kev nce nyiaj nce mus rau pob taws. Cov xov xwm hais txog kev lag luam taw qhia rau kev loj hlob qeeb thiab tsis tshua muaj roj rau kev nce nqi tuaj yeem pab txhawb nqa cov khoom lag luam ntawm lub tswv yim tias Fed tuaj yeem pib qeeb qeeb lossis tseem pib lom zem rau kev txiav nyiaj yav tom ntej.
Hloov chaw, xov xwm zoo ntawm kev lag luam tuaj yeem yog xov xwm phem rau cov khoom lag luam.
Yog li dab tsi hloov? Lub lim tiam dhau los pom softer-tshaj-xav tau lub Kaum Ib Hlis cov neeg siv khoom-tus nqi ntsuas kev nyeem ntawv. Thaum tseem muaj zog kub, nrog cov nqi nce ntau dua 7% xyoo dhau los, cov tub ua lag luam muaj kev ntseeg siab tias kev nce nqi yuav nce siab txog li plaub caug xyoo siab dua 9% hauv Lub Rau Hli.
Tab sis Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve thiab lwm lub tsev txhab nyiaj loj hauv nruab nrab tau qhia tias lawv npaj siab yuav khaws cov nqi nqa, txawm tias qeeb qeeb, rau xyoo 2023 thiab yuav ua rau lawv nce siab dua li cov tub ua lag luam tau xav txog. Qhov ntawd ua rau muaj kev ntshai tias kev lag luam poob qis dua.
Lub caij no, kev lag luam tau coj tus cwj pwm zoo li qhov phem tshaj plaws ntawm kev nce nyiaj txaus ntshai yog nyob rau hauv daim iav saib rov qab, nrog kev ntshai kev poob nyiaj tam sim no los ntawm lub qab ntug, Jim Baird, tus thawj coj peev ntawm Plante Moran Cov Kws Pab Tswv Yim Nyiaj Txiag tau hais.
Qhov kev xav ntawd tau txhawb nqa los ntawm kev tsim cov ntaub ntawv hnub Wednesday thiab qhov muag muag muag tsis muaj zog tshaj qhov kev xav tau nyeem rau hnub Thursday, Baird tau hais, hauv kev sib tham hauv xov tooj.
Kev lag luam yog "tej zaum rov qab mus rau lub sijhawm uas xov xwm tsis zoo yog xov xwm tsis zoo vim tias tus nqi yuav ua rau muaj kev txhawj xeeb rau cov tub ua lag luam, tab sis vim tias cov nyiaj tau los loj hlob yuav poob qis," Baird tau hais.
Ib qho 'rov qab Tepper kev lag luam'
Keith Lerner, tus thawj coj ntawm kev nqis peev ntawm Truist, tau sib cav tias daim iav duab ntawm lub nraub qaum uas ua rau lub npe hu ua "Tepper luam," tshwm sim los ntawm hedge-fund titan David Tepper thaum lub Cuaj Hlis 2010, tej zaum yuav tsim.
Hmoov tsis zoo, thaum Tepper lub prescient hu yog rau "yeej / yeej qhov xwm txheej." Lerner tau hais tias "kev lag luam thim rov qab Tepper" tab tom txhim kho raws li qhov kev xav poob / poob, Lerner tau hais, hauv tsab ntawv rau hnub Friday.
Tepper qhov kev sib cav yog tias kev lag luam yuav zoo dua, uas yuav zoo rau cov khoom lag luam thiab cov khoom vaj khoom tsev nqi. Los yog, kev lag luam yuav tsis muaj zog, nrog Fed nqis los txhawb kev lag luam, uas tseem yuav zoo rau cov khoom vaj khoom tsev.
Kev teeb tsa tam sim no yog ib qho uas kev lag luam yuav ua rau tsis muaj zog, tswj kev nce nqi tab sis kuj tseem cuam tshuam cov txiaj ntsig ntawm cov tuam txhab thiab cov cuab yeej cuab tam nyuaj, Lerner tau hais. Los yog, hloov pauv, kev lag luam tseem muaj zog, nrog rau kev nce nqi, nrog Fed thiab lwm lub tsev txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab txuas ntxiv kom nruj txoj cai, thiab cov khoom muaj nqis nyuaj.
“Nyob rau hauv ob qho tib si, muaj peev xwm headwind rau cov tub ua lag luam. Yuav kom ncaj ncees, muaj ib txoj hauv kev thib peb, qhov twg kev nce nyiaj poob qis, thiab kev lag luam tsis txhob muaj kev lag luam, qhov thiaj li hu ua soft landing. Nws ua tau, ”Lerner sau, tab sis sau tseg txoj hauv kev mus rau qhov chaw mos zoo li nqaim zuj zus.
Kev lag luam poob qis tau tshwm sim rau hnub Thursday, thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis muag muag pom qhov poob 0.6%., tshaj li kev kwv yees rau 0.3% poob thiab qhov poob loj tshaj plaws hauv yuav luag ib xyoos. Tsis tas li ntawd, Philadelphia Fed qhov kev tsim khoom lag luam tau nce, tab sis tseem nyob hauv thaj chaw tsis zoo, qhov kev cia siab poob siab, thaum New York Fed's Empire State Performance index poob.
Cov khoom lag luam, uas tau tshaj tawm cov kev poob qis tom qab Fed ib hnub ua ntej tshem cov paj laum los ntawm ib nrab ntawm feem pua ntawm cov ntsiab lus, poob qis heev. Cov khoom lag luam txuas ntxiv lawv qhov poob rau hnub Friday, nrog rau S&P 500
SPX,
nkag mus rau 2.1% poob txhua lub lim tiam, thaum Dow Jones Industrial Nruab Nrab
DJIA,
tso 1.7% thiab Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
poob 2.7%.
"Thaum peb tsiv mus rau xyoo 2023, cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam yuav dhau los ua kev cuam tshuam ntau dua ntawm cov khoom lag luam vim tias cov ntaub ntawv yuav qhia peb cov lus teb rau lo lus nug tseem ceeb: Yuav ua li cas kev lag luam poob qis? Qhov ntawd yog lo lus nug tseem ceeb thaum peb pib lub xyoo tshiab, vim tias nrog Fed ntawm cov txheeb ze txoj cai 'pilot' (ntau hikes pib 2023) qhov tseem ceeb tam sim no yog kev loj hlob, thiab muaj peev xwm puas tsuaj los ntawm kev loj hlob qeeb, "said Tom Essaye, tus tsim ntawm Sevens Report Research, nyob rau hauv ib daim ntawv Friday.
Kev saib xyuas nyiaj txiag
Tsis muaj leej twg tuaj yeem hais nrog qhov tseeb tias kev lag luam poob qis yuav tshwm sim hauv 2023, tab sis zoo li tsis muaj lus nug txog cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov tuam txhab yuav los ntawm kev ntxhov siab, thiab qhov ntawd yuav yog tus tsav tsheb tseem ceeb rau kev lag luam, hais tias Plante Moran's Baird. Thiab qhov ntawd txhais tau hais tias cov nyiaj khwv tau los muaj peev xwm los ua qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev hloov pauv hauv lub xyoo tom ntej.
"Yog hais tias nyob rau hauv 2022 zaj dab neeg yog kev nce nqi thiab tus nqi, rau 2023 nws yuav ua tau nyiaj khwv tau los thiab nyiaj txiag txaus ntshai," nws hais.
Nws tsis yog ib puag ncig uas ua rau muaj kev loj hlob siab, muaj kev pheej hmoo siab sib npaug, thaum cov xwm txheej cyclical tuaj yeem teeb tsa zoo rau cov khoom lag luam muaj nqis thiab cov kaus mom me me, nws hais.
Truist's Lerner tau hais tias kom txog rau thaum qhov hnyav ntawm cov pov thawj hloov pauv, "peb tuav peb qhov hnyav dhau ntawm cov nyiaj tau los ruaj khov, uas peb tsom mus rau cov ntawv cog lus zoo, thiab cov txheeb ze qis dua hauv kev sib npaug."
Tsis pub dhau qhov sib npaug, Truist nyiam Asmeskas, tus nqi qaij, thiab pom "cov hauv kev zoo dua hauv qab lub lag luam saum npoo," xws li qhov sib npaug ntawm qhov hnyav S&P 500, tus neeg sawv cev rau cov khoom nruab nrab.
Cov tseem ceeb ntawm tus Economic calendar rau lub lim tiam tom ntej suav nrog kev kho dua tshiab ntawm peb lub hlis twg cov khoom lag luam hauv tsev tag nrho rau hnub Thursday, nrog rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis index ntawm cov ntsuas kev lag luam. Hnub Friday, Kaum Ib Hlis Ntuj kev siv tus kheej thiab kev siv nyiaj cov ntaub ntawv, suav nrog Fed qhov kev ntsuas nyiaj txiag xav tau raug tso tawm.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-investors-now-fear-recession-more-than-inflation-heres-why-11671234234?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo