Thaum Russia hmoov tsis thiab tu siab invaded Ukraine, lub S & P500 (SPX) hauv qab ntawm $ 4115 thiab tsis tau saib rov qab. Tib hnub ntawd, saib no, Kuv nug seb qhov no puas yuav yog qhov pib ntawm Kev Lag Luam Dais. Kuv Elliott Wave Txoj Cai (EWP) thiab technical analysis (TA) raws li cov lus teb yog "Tsis ceev," raws li kuv xaus lus, "Nrog rau hnub no qhov qis ntawm SPX4115, qhov ntsuas tau ua tiav nws lub hom phiaj thiab tau ua tiav txaus los muab tso rau hauv qab kom ntev dua. Kev so rov qab los saum SPX4590 yuav qhia kuv txoj kev khiav mus rau SPX5000+ tab tom pib.” Thov nco ntsoov tias twb nyob rau lub Ob Hlis 6, saib no, Kuv tab tom nrhiav "SPX tseem tuaj yeem sim rau qhov kawg stab qis dua rau SPX4150+/-50 kom ua tiav qhov tseem ceeb 4th nthwv dej... "
Tej zaum koj yuav tau xav tias kuv vwm thiab tsis ncaj ncees lawm, raws li qhov tseem ceeb txhua tus tub lag luam, cov tub lag luam, thiab cov neeg lag luam pundits tau dhia rau ntawm cov bearish bandwagon tshaj tawm qhov kawg ntawm lub ntiaj teb thiab WW-III. Txawm li cas los xij, nws yog lub hom phiaj, cov ntaub ntawv-tsav tshuaj ntsuam xyuas siv lub sijhawm sim cov txheej txheem uas ua haujlwm. Txawm li cas los xij, qhov qhab nia yog ib zaug ntxiv "EWP thiab TA 1 vs. kev xav 0” Yog vim li ntawd cov neeg tuaj koom kuv hwm kev lag luam loj, lim tawm tag nrho cov suab nrov txhua hnub. Los yog raws li Joe Friday ib zaug hais tias, "Tsuas yog qhov tseeb ma'am. "
Txawm hais tias qhov ntsuas tsis tau tawg rov qab siab dua SPX4590 tsis tau, kev nyeem ntawv dav dav ntawm kev lag luam muaj zog heev (saib no thiab no, piv txwv li) tias "kev sib tw dav" thiab kev hloov pauv tau tshwm sim feem ntau. Yog li ntawd, kuv tuaj yeem ntseeg siab siv tus lej EWP suav rau qhov ntsuas. Saib daim duab-1 hauv qab no.
Daim duab 1. S&P500 cov kab kos duab kos duab txhua hnub nrog cov ncauj lus kom ntxaws EWP suav
Ib qho kev sib tw tsis cuam tshuam rau SPX4700 ua ntej lwm qhov 200-400p poob?!.
SPX tau pom plaub sib law liag> 1% kev sib tw rau lub lim tiam no. Ib qho tshwj xeeb uas tsuas yog tshwm sim plaub zaug ua ntej hauv qhov ntsuas keeb kwm. Xws li kev sib tw muaj zog feem ntau yog qhov cim ntawm 3rd (ib 3rd) zog. Hauv qhov no (grey) feeb-iii ntawm (ntsuab) me-3 ntawm (liab) nruab nrab-i. Lub tom kawg yog, nyob rau hauv lem, ib feem ntawm (dub) loj-5, tab sis kuv yuav tau mus rau qhov ntawd nyob rau hauv ib feeb.
feeb nthwv dej-iii yuav tsum ua tib zoo sab saum toj ib ncig ntawm SPX4500+/10, tom qab ntawd nthwv dej-iv rov qab mus rau SPX4430+/-10, thiab lwm yam. Saib daim duab 1. Qhov zoo tshaj plaws, qhov ntsuas yuav tsum sab saum toj ntawm SPX4700+/-50 rau (liab) nruab nrab-i ua ntej kev kho ntau hnub/lub lim tiam pib hauv: yoj-ii. Tau kawg, kev ua lag luam tsis tas yuav ua raws li qhov zoo tshaj plaws Fibonacci-based EWP qauv, tab sis feem ntau nws ua.
Yog li nws yog ib qho kev qhia zoo thiab daim ntawv qhia kev. Thaum nruab nrab nthwv dej-ii ua tiav (hauv thaj chaw liab lub hom phiaj 4350-4450), nthwv dej iii, iv, thiab v thaum kawg tuaj yeem tsom mus ncig SPX5600+. Kuv yuav suav tau li cas? Wave-i los ntawm 4100-> 4700, wave-ii ntawm 4400, ces wave-v rau 4400 + 2 x (4700-4100) = 5600. Qhov ntawd yuav tsum yog lub hom phiaj (dub) loj-5 lub hom phiaj.
cov kab hauv qab: Los ntawm muab qhov tseeb xwb, kuv tau raug kwv yees qhov twg SPX yuav tsum hauv qab (4150+/-50 vs. 4115) thiab pom thaum Russia invaded Ukraine, "index tau ua tiav nws lub hom phiaj thiab tau ua tiav txaus los muab tso rau hauv qab-ntev ntev.” Peb lub lis piam tom qab thiab SPX tau sib sau ua ke ntxiv 150 cov ntsiab lus. Kev siv lub sijhawm luv luv EWP txoj kev mus rau pem hauv ntej qhia peb yuav tsum pom lub hauv paus sab saum toj ntawm ib puag ncig SPX4700 +/-50, tom qab ntawd poob rov qab mus rau ib puag ncig $ 4400 +/-50 los ntawm qhov ntsuas qhov ntsuas tuaj yeem mus txog ~ 5600.
Qhov no tsab xov xwm yog thawj zaug muab tso rau ntawm FX Empire
Tshaj Tawm Los ntawm FXEMPIRE:
Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p500-gearing-5500-080542178.html