Cov khoom lag luam tau muag tawm sai heev thiab tej zaum yuav ze rau kev qaug zog.
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S&P 500 Index yog flirting nrog dais lag luam thaj chaw, nqis yuav luag 20% xyoo rau hnub tim.
Muaj ntau qhov laj thawj rau cov neeg ua lag luam sib luag kom tread ntau ceev faj hnub no. Qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws, Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tau piv rau txoj cai tswj hwm nyiaj txiag tsis txaus ntseeg thaum lub sijhawm kev lag luam pib qeeb. Keeb kwm, qhov ntawd yog kev sib xyaw ua ke tsis zoo rau cov khoom muaj nqis txaus ntshai.
Yog tias koj tab tom xav txog kev muag cov nqi sib npaug tam sim no, txawm li cas los xij, koj yuav xav thawb ncua ntawm qhov kev txiav txim siab ntawd. Ib qho kev qhia zoo tshaj plaws nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb tsuas yog sau npe rau oversold yuav teeb liab.
Qhov taw qhia DeMark yog ib lub suite ntawm cov cuab yeej ua lag luam lub sijhawm tsim los ntawm Tom DeMark. Thaum nws ua haujlwm, Tom tau sab laj nrog ntau tus thawj tswj hwm nyiaj txiag hauv ntiaj teb, suav nrog Paul Tudor Jones thiab Steve Cohen. Nws cov ntsuas yog cov app nrov tshaj plaws cov tub lag luam siv ntawm lawv cov Bloomberg terminals.
Kuv tau hais txog DeMark Indicators hauv cov ntawv ua ntej. Lub sijhawm kawg kuv tau tshaj tawm TD Combo yog thaum MSCI Tag Nrho Lub Tebchaws Ntiaj Teb Index luam tawm lub teeb liab yuav nyob rau lub Peb Hlis 2020. Hauv kev pom, qhov ntawd tau dhau los ua kev lag luam loj hauv qab.
Kuv siv DeMark Indicators ua ib feem ntawm kuv cov cuab yeej tswj kev pheej hmoo vim tias lawv pab kom muaj nuj nqis thaum muaj kev sib tw (bullish lossis bearish) muaj qhov ua tau zoo tshaj plaws ntawm kev cuam tshuam. Hauv lwm lo lus, lawv muab cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb los pab kom ua tiav peb lub hom phiaj tseem ceeb raws li cov tub ua lag luam: Kev yuav qis thiab muag siab.
Ob qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws Demark Indicators hu ua TD Combo thiab TD Sequential. Yeej, thaum 13s luam tawm los yog nyob rau hauv ib tug tshwj xeeb nqe bar ntawm ib daim ntawv qhia, uas qhia rau koj kom tsis txhob chasing lub prevailing sib, vim hais tias muaj ib tug saum toj no-qhov nruab nrab qhov yuav tshwm sim ntawm ib tug luv luv-term trend reversal.
Hauv qab no yog saib ntawm S&P 500 Index, uas nyuam qhuav luam tawm thawj TD Combo txij thaum 2011 nag hmo. Nco tseg: TD combo prints magenta 13s, whereas TD Sequential prints the 13s in red.
Tau qhov twg los: DeMark Analytics, Bloomberg
Kev Tswj Nyiaj Teeb Khoom, LLC
Raws li koj tuaj yeem pom ntawm daim duab saum toj no, muaj peb TD Sequential 13s nyob rau rau lub hlis dhau los. Ib qho yog qhov kuv yuav hu ua "Muag 13," qhov twg thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2021 S&P 500 tau nce mus txog 4800 qib kev pheej hmoo khi rau liab 13 thiab tom qab ntawd thim rov qab. Tom qab ntawd, muaj TD Sequential yuav teeb liab hauv lub Peb Hlis xyoo no, uas ua rau muaj kev sib tw ntse. Lub lim tiam dhau los, TD Sequential 13 luam tawm thiab nag hmo ib TD combo 13 luam tawm (magenta 13).
TD Combo yuav teeb liab rau S&P 500 yog qhov tsawg. Nag hmo tsuas yog zaum xya peb tau pom ib qho txij li xyoo 2000. Cov lus hauv qab no cov ntaub ntawv rov qab zoo li cas.
Tau qhov twg los: DeMark Analytics, Bloomberg.
Kev Tswj Nyiaj Teeb Khoom, LLC
Ib qho ntawm Tom DeMark cov lus nyiam yog, "Ib qho qauv yog koj tus phooj ywg mus txog thaum nws xaus."
Txawm hais tias koj xav tias cov khoom lag luam yuav nce mus rau hauv lub lag luam ntev ntev, "Txoj kev loj mus rau ntuj txiag teb tsaus" tsis zoo li yuav yog ib txoj kev. Qee qhov kev sib tw loj tshaj plaws tshwm sim hauv khw dais.
Hauv cov tswv yim uas kuv tswj hwm, Kuv tau raug tiv thaiv rau feem ntau ntawm lub xyoo no. Hauv paus, Kuv tseem tsis nyiam qhov teeb tsa macro. Tab sis qhov sib txawv loj ntawm tam sim no thiab Lub Ib Hlis yog ntau yam uas kuv tau txhawj xeeb txog lwm tus tam sim no txhawj xeeb thiab. Ntau heev Cov xov xwm tsis zoo twb raug nqi nyob rau hauv. Thaum kawg, cov neeg muag khoom yuav tau qaug zog thiab qhov ntawd yog qhov tsim kom muaj kev lag luam hauv qab.
DeMark Indicators yog qhov zoo tshaj plaws ntawm lub sijhawm pom thaum muag qaug zog thiab npog luv luv yuav tshwm sim. Nov yog ib lub sijhawm ntawd.
Nws tseem yog lub sijhawm zoo kom nco ntsoov ib qho ntawm Warren Buffett cov lus qhia txog kev nqis peev uas muaj npe nrov: "Cia li ntshai thaum lwm tus neeg siab hlob, thiab siab hlob thaum lwm tus ntshai."
Raws li cov kab no, ntawm no yog qhov CNN's Fear & Greed Sentiment Index sawv ntawm hnub no:
Source: CNN
Kev Tswj Nyiaj Teeb Khoom, LLC
Kev Tshaj Tawm: Cov ntaub ntawv no tsis yog tsim los ua raws li kev kwv yees, kev tshawb fawb lossis kev qhia txog peev, thiab tsis yog kev pom zoo.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelcannivet/2022/05/19/the-sp-500-just-printed-a-rare-demark-buy-signal/