Productivity poob qis hauv Shale Oil Basins yog qhov tsis txaus ntseeg

Ib qho ntawm qhov tsis paub tseeb txog kev lag luam roj hauv xyoo tom ntej ntawm qhov sib txawv hauv US shale roj ntau lawm. Vim hais tias shale drilling yog heev teb rau cov nqi thiab qhov dej poob sharply, ntau lawm yuav muab ntxiv sai sai tab sis kuj poob sai heev yog hais tias drilling tsis tau khaws cia. Yog li, txoj hauv kev yog qhov nyuaj rau kwv yees dua li, hais tias, kev txhim kho hauv dej tob uas siv ntau xyoo los coj hauv online. Raws li feem ntau cov ntaub ntawv, zoo li muaj kev sib cais ntawm optimists thiab pessimists xav txog ntau npaum li cas psychology ntawm tus kws sau ntawv raws li qhov kev loj hlob nyob rau hauv lub teb.

Keeb kwm, optimists feem ntau yog cov neeg ua haujlwm hauv tuam txhab, feem ntau los ntawm cov neeg tsim khoom me, uas tau khav txog qhov zoo ntawm cov dej ntws uas lawv tau npaj los siv. Cov kws tshaj lij raug cai tau, raws li ib txwm muaj, kev saib xyuas thiab tsis nkag siab qhov loj ntawm qhov tawg mus txog thaum nws tau ua tiav zoo. Kuv lees txim tias txawm tias kuv tau zoo, kwv yees kev loj hlob ntawm 400-500 tb / d / xyoo ntawm OPEC lub rooj sib tham hauv xyoo 2012, uas tau ua pov thawj qis dua qhov kev loj hlob uas tau tshwm sim tom qab.

Lub Skywalker Brigade ('ib txwm nrog koj nws tsis tuaj yeem ua tsis tau') tsis tu ncua trotted tawm cov lus sib cav hais txog cov khoom qab zib tau depleted, tus nqi tsis txaus siab, thiab kev lag luam raug deprived ntawm peev vim yog phom-shy Wall Street cov tub ua lag luam. Muaj qee qhov siv tau rau cov lus sib cav no, tab sis zoo li muaj pa taws ntau dua li hluav taws.

Ntau qhov kev txhawj xeeb yog qhov kev poob qis tsis ntev los no hauv cov khoom lag luam rig, raws li ntsuas los ntawm Kev Tswj Xyuas Hluav Taws Xob Cov Ntaub Ntawv thiab tau tshaj tawm hauv nws Daim Ntawv Qhia Txog Kev Lag Luam Drilling Productivity hauv kev tsim khoom ntxiv rau ib qho kev ua haujlwm rig. Qhov kev kwv yees rau tsib lub ntsiab roj tsim cov shales tau pom nyob rau hauv daim duab hauv qab no, thiab kev poob qis txij li xyoo 2020 yog qhov zoo tshaj plaws: ib feem peb mus rau ib nrab. Ua ke nrog kev lag luam nruj rau kev tsim khoom, los ntawm kev ua haujlwm mus rau fracking sands, qhov cuam tshuam yog tias kev saib xyuas kev tsim khoom, cia nyob ib leeg nce, yuav nyuaj ua tiav.

Tab sis EIA qhov kev ntsuas ntawm kev tsim khoom yog me ntsis yuam kev, feem ntau yog vim nws saib ntawm cov rigs kev khiav hauj lwm thiab kev hloov hauv kev tsim khoom, thiab nyob rau hauv ob peb xyoos dhau los, kev lag luam tau hloov nws qhov tseem ceeb los ntawm drilling qhov tshiab (uas yuav tsum tau rigs) kom ua tiav cov dej drilled yav dhau los. uas tsis tau fracked, tseem hu ua DUCs, los yog drilled uncompleted. Daim duab hauv qab no qhia txog qhov sib piv ntawm cov drilled rau cov qhov dej tiav rau peb qhov loj shale basins: tus lej saum toj no sawv cev rau ntau lub qhov dej drilled tshaj qhov ua tiav, tab sis yog tias cov khoom muag ntawm DUCs tau khiav, tus lej qis dua ib.

Raws li daim duab qhia, ua ntej muaj kev sib kis, kev lag luam tau tsim cov khoom muag ntawm DUCs, nrog rau cov tuam txhab drilling txog li 50% ntau dua li lawv tau ua tiav hauv qee lub hlis. Nrog rau kev pib kis thoob qhov txhia chaw, kev lag luam pib siv cov backlog ntawm cov qhov dej tsis tiav, muab cov neeg ua haujlwm tsis txaus thiab cov nqi qis dua uas ua rau nws txaus nyiam kom tsuas yog ua tiav cov qhov dej uas twb muaj lawm. Nyob rau hauv lub hlis tsis ntev los no, tus naj npawb ntawm cov qhov dej drilled tau nce ntxiv thaum kev ua tiav tau tuav ruaj khov, raws li daim duab hauv qab no qhia.

Kev siv EIA cov ntaub ntawv rau kev hloov pauv hauv kev tsim khoom thiab qhov dej ua tiav muab cov duab sib txawv rau kev lag luam tsim khoom dua li hauv daim duab dhau los. Daim duab hauv qab no yog rau 3-lub hlis txav nruab nrab ntawm kev hloov pauv ntawm cov khoom lag luam txheeb ze rau lub qhov dej ua tiav thiab thaum cov ntaub ntawv muaj suab nrov, nws pom tseeb tias cov khoom tsim tau zoo ua tiav tsis poob qis hauv lub hlis tsis ntev los no thiab txawm tias zoo li nce me ntsis. Qhov cuam tshuam yog tias qhov kev poob qis hauv cov khoom lag luam uas EIA tau tshaj tawm yog qhov khoom pov thawj ntawm lawv qhov kev cia siab ntawm cov rigs kev khiav hauj lwm: qhov poob qis hauv cov khoom siv hluav taws xob txhais tau hais tias cov khoom tsim tau ib qho rig yog exaggerated, thiab qhov kev poob qis tom qab yog qhov kev kho kom zoo. qhov no, raws li cov rigs khiav hauj lwm thiab qhov dej tiav tau rov qab los rau hauv qhov sib npaug.

Qhov no tsis yooj yim daws qhov kev sib cav txog kev tsim cov shale vim tias tseem muaj cov lus nug txog cov nqi, cov peev txheej, kev muaj Tier 1 qhov chaw drilling thiab lwm yam, tsis hais dab tsi ntawm seb cov nqi roj yuav nyob li cas los txhawb kev nqis peev ntxiv. Ntawm no sau tus nqi ntawm WTI yog hem tias yuav poob qis dua $ 70 ib chim. Kev saib xyuas kev kwv yees yuav zoo li nyob rau hauv kev txiav txim tshwj tsis yog tias muaj tus nqi rov qab muaj zog (yuav tsum tsis tu ncua siab dua $ 80), tab sis qhov kev xav tsis zoo tshaj plaws yuav tsum raug txiav txim siab tsis ntseeg. Tsis yog qhov kev tsis ntseeg tsis yog ib txwm lav: Raws li Thawj Tswj Hwm Reagan tau hais, ntseeg tab sis txheeb xyuas.