Navy's "Kev Ntsuam Xyuas Tsis Ua Haujlwm" Sinks Muaj Peev Xwm Rau Kev Nkoj Tshiab Hauv Tebchaws

Lub Navy plaub "lub nkoj nkoj hauv tebchaws" tau kawm txog kev tuag. Tom qab siv nyiaj ntau lab ntawm $ 21 billion Shipyard Infrastructure Optimization Program mus kawm txhua yam Los ntawm cov neeg ua haujlwm hauv nkoj nkoj cov qauv kev tsheb mus rau cov vaj tsev ib puag ncig cuam tshuam thiab muaj peev xwm ua rau muaj keeb kwm yav dhau los, Navy tseem nyob hauv qhov tuav tag nrho ntawm kev tawm tsam submarine txij nkawm teeb meem. Tsis yog ua, Navy tam sim no xav kawm txog lub nkoj nkoj ntau dua, saib seb Navy puas xav tau ntxiv lub tebchaws tshiab - lossis pej xeem - nkoj nkoj.

Txoj kev tshawb fawb tshiab yog ib daim ntawv qhia ua tsis muaj dab tsi.

Thaum ua tiav, cov kev tshawb fawb yuav tsuas hais txog kev saib xyuas cov lus ceeb toom tau piav qhia hauv xyoo thiab xyoo ntawm kev tshawb fawb ua ntej ntawm US Navy lub nkoj nkoj nkoj. Tab sis tom qab ntawd, ntawm chav kawm, lub cozy, insular, thiab tsis ua dab tsi US admiralty yuav, dua, cov ntsiab lus nws tus kheej los ntawm kev xav tau kev kawm ntxiv. Thaum cov kev tshawb fawb ua rau muaj txiaj ntsig zoo ntawm Pentagon txoj haujlwm, lawv yog ib qho kev hloov pauv tsis zoo rau kev tsim khoom thiab tsim me me rau hauv txoj kev sib ntaus sib tua ntxiv. Nws yog lub sijhawm rau Navy los txiav txim siab loj.

Lwm txoj kev tshawb fawb, los ntawm kev ceeb toom Navy txaus ntshai tshaj Taiwan thiab kev ua haujlwm hauv Lavxias hauv qab dej, yog qhov pov tseg ntawm lub sijhawm muaj txiaj ntsig.

Lub Navy tsis muaj qhov kawg "tau txais qhov tseeb, tau zoo dua" kev tsom xam cov cuab yeej npog qhov ncauj qhov kev ua thawj coj tsis ua haujlwm. Qee lub sij hawm, lub dithering yuav tsum nres. US Navy, thaum nws tsis tuaj yeem paub tseeb tias qhov kev txiav txim siab loj yog qhov yog, tseem yog "saib xyuas." Rau qhov zoo dua los yog phem dua, US Navy yuav tsum-tom qab ntau xyoo ntawm kev ncua thiab tsis kam lees- txiav txim siab lossis raug kev txom nyem txoj hmoo zoo ib yam li qhov tsis zoo. Mr. Hollom, ib tug indecisive midshipman portrayed nyob rau hauv lub nrov maritime cult movie "Master thiab Commander".

Lub Chaw Nkoj Tshiab Hauv Tebchaws yog qhov yuav tsum tau pom tseeb

Tom qab ceeb toom tias Tuam Tshoj yuav tuaj yeem ua phem rau hauv hiav txwv sai sai, Navy tau tawm tswv yim qee lub sijhawm muaj zog los ua kom pom tseeb qhov tsis ua haujlwm ntxiv. Tsis muaj kev kub ntxhov. Txoj kev tshawb fawb ntawm Lub Chaw Nkoj Tshiab Hauv Tebchaws tsuas yog npaj yuav pib qee lub sijhawm xyoo tom ntej, thiab nws tsuas yog "kev kawm tshawb fawb," tsim los ua kom pom tseeb kev kawm ntxiv los ntawm leej twg nyob hauv Tsev Dawb hauv ob xyoos.

Kev siv zog, piav qhia los ntawm Rear Admiral Jonathan Rucker, tus thawj coj ntawm kev ua haujlwm rau kev tawm tsam submarines, yog "mus txog qhov peev xwm ntawm peb lub nkoj nkoj yuav ua li cas."

Qhov ntawd yeej yog qhov kev kawm zoo, yog tias Navy twb tsis tau siv ntau lab daus las rau, ostensibly, tsuas yog qhov ntawd. Txij li xyoo 2017, Navy Shipyard Infrastructure Optimization Program tau ua haujlwm "los tsim lub virtual, unconstrained optimization ntawm infrastructure kev daws teeb meem ... txhawm rau txhim kho cov txheej txheem ntws thiab kev ua tau zoo."

Admiral Rucker tseem tab tom teeb tsa qhov teeb meem tsis raug. Nws ostensibly xav rov pib ua haujlwm rov qab mus rau xyoo 2000, thaum "peb tau pib txog 12 qhov muaj nyob hauv ib xyoos" nrog qhov nruab nrab ntev li ntawm 200 hnub. Niaj hnub no, hais tias Rucker, "peb pib txog tsib qhov muaj nyob rau ib xyoos" nrog rau qhov nruab nrab ntev li ntawm 450-700 hnub.

Qhov ntawd yog lub hom phiaj zoo, tab sis kev hloov pauv kev ua tau zoo muaj ntau ntxiv nrog rau kev nce ntxiv hauv National Shipyard xav tau ntau dua li qhov poob ntawm National Shipyard kev ua tau zoo.

Xyoo 2000, Navy's submarine fleet tsis xav tau kev saib xyuas ntau. Thaum lub sij hawm ntawd, lub nres submarine fleet yog dominated los ntawm spry, kuj tshiab Los Angeles tej nkoj nquam. Nws yog ib lub nkoj me me. Tsawg dua 10% ntawm kev tawm tsam submarine nkoj muaj ntau tshaj 25 xyoo kev pabcuam. Nws yog ib lub nkoj yooj yim dua, thiab. Ob peb hnub nyoog Sturgeon class subs dai rau, thiab ob tug tshiab Ntxhw dej Cov chav kawm subs tau tshiab-commissioned, tab sis lub nkoj yog, los ntawm thiab loj, dominated los ntawm ib chav kawm ntawm submarine.

Niaj hnub no, Navy tab tom tawm tsam nrog kev sib tw ntau dua thiab laus dua. Qhov 26 Los Angeles Cov chav kawm uas tseem nyob hauv lub nkoj yog cov laus-tus yau tshaj plaws tau xa tawm 26 xyoo dhau los. Tam sim no, 54% ntawm kev tawm tsam submarine nkoj tau ua haujlwm ntau dua 25 xyoo. Ib tug ntawm peb Hiav txwv raug tso tseg vim muaj kev zam tsis tau. Thiab tom qab ntawd, nyob rau sab saum toj ntawm cov kev xav tau ntxiv ntawm cov laus subs, Navy tseem ua haujlwm kom nkag siab txog qhov Virginia class submarine fleet. Nrog 21 hauv kev pabcuam, Navy kev coj noj coj ua tsuas yog tam sim no paub tseeb tias Virginia Cov chav kawm subs xav tau kev saib xyuas ntau dua li qhov xav tau.

Hauv plawv, txoj kev tshawb fawb tshiab no yog hais txog kev zam lub luag haujlwm ntawm lub koom haum. Ob xyoo dhau los, Navy submarine zej zog ua faulty assumption txog lub Virginia class submarine program thiab tam sim no, es tsis lees txais kev lav phib xaub rau lawv qhov kev ua yuam kev, cov thawj coj hauv zej zog submarine tsuas yog hloov qhov kev liam rau Asmeskas cov chaw nres nkoj hauv tebchaws.

Qhov ntawd tsis ncaj ncees. Nyob rau hauv kev khiav mus rau 1993 Base Realignment thiab Kaw Commission, Navy, xav kom txav mus dhau qhov kev puas tsuaj ntawm tus nqi ntawm lub nkoj 3-nkoj. Ntxhw dej chav kawm, tau hais kom Congress los txhawb kev tsim kho tshiab Virginia Class attack submarine. Yuav kom "muag", Navy systematically underestimated lub Virginia cov kev kho mob xav tau. Tab sis, los ntawm low-balling Virginia Cov kev cia siab ntawm kev saib xyuas hauv chav kawm submarine, Navy tsis tuaj yeem ua pov thawj khaws ob lub nkoj me me kho vaj tsev - ib qho hauv California thiab lwm qhov hauv South Carolina. Cov yards - kho vaj tse uas lub teb chaws tam sim no xav tau - raug kaw hauv 1996.

Ob peb xyoos tom qab thawj zaug Virginia chav kawm submarine nkag mus rau hauv lub nkoj, Navy ntsiag to muab ob npaug rau kev saib xyuas kev xav tau suav nrog hauv Virginia Kev Npaj Kho Chav Kawm. Raws li RAND ntsiag to tso nws, "kev nce siab hauv kev saib xyuas" tau cuam tshuam "kev saib xyuas tsis zoo uas xav tias nyob rau hauv lub sijhawm tau txais" uas tau "hloov thaum cov hlau lead submarines nkag mus rau hauv lub nkoj."

Hauv lwm lo lus, Navy tau rub lub cuab yeej-thiab-hloov, thiab lawv tsis xav lees paub nws.

Lub Sijhawm Rau Lub Chaw Nkoj Tshiab Hauv Tebchaws… Hauv Baltimore

Qhov kev xav tau rau lub chaw nres nkoj hauv tebchaws tshiab yog qhov pom tseeb. Tab sis Navy, ib yam li nws tau npaj los ua qhov kev tawm tsam tshiab submarine tsim, xav tau kom tsis txhob lees tias nws tau ua yuam kev.

Txhawm rau hloov pauv, Asmeskas lub zej zog insular submarine yuav tsum qhib rau sab nraud cuam tshuam. Cov neeg soj ntsuam sab nraud tau hais kom Navy pib tsim cov chaw kho dej hauv nkoj tshiab rau xyoo. Tab sis lub submarine zej zog tsis xav hnov ​​txog nws. Yuav luag plaub xyoos dhau los - thiab tsuas yog xya lub hlis ua ntej tau txais kev pab rau ib qho "tsis tsim nyog" kev sib raug zoo-Tus Naval Sea Systems Command Tus Thawj Coj ntawm Kev Lag Luam Kev Lag Luam tau siv sijhawm los ntawm nws hnub tsis khoom los thuam kuv hu rau Defenseone.com rau lub teb chaws tshiab shipyard. Tsis yog tham txog qhov zoo ntawm lub tswv yim, nws xav paub tias kuv tau ua haujlwm rau leej twg, thiab yog vim li cas kuv thiaj li yuav twv kom muab cov lus qhia tsis paub txog kev tu tub rog, vim kuv tsis paub dab tsi.

Kuv qhov kev txheeb xyuas tseem zoo li qub. Lub Navy xav tau ib qho chaw tshiab submarine tu vaj. Ntau dua li kawm txog kev ua haujlwm hauv nkoj nkoj - dua - Navy yuav ua haujlwm zoo dua los ntawm kev ua qee yam kev coj ua, txiav txim siab qhov twg yuav tso lub vaj tshiab, thiab nrhiav seb yuav ua li cas sib sau ua ke cov kev cob qhia sib npaug. Ib qho kev xaiv zoo yuav yog los hloov cov tub rog me me siv Curtis Bay depot hauv Baltimore, Maryland mus rau hauv lub chaw ua haujlwm hauv lub tebchaws, muaj peev xwm ntsuas lub ncov thiab hav ntawm sub ua haujlwm nrog Department of Homeland Security's High-performing Coast Guard Yard, tsuas yog ob peb puas yards deb.

Tau qhov twg los: https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2022/11/09/the-navys-analysis-paralysis-sinks-chances-for-new-national-shipyard/