Edward Thorp yog kev nqis peev thiab lej lus dab neeg - los ntawm kev pom Bernie Madoff qhov kev dag ntxias nrog rau kev txheeb xyuas Warren Buffett qhov kev nqis peev thaum ntxov, los txog nrog kev ua si blackjack.
Ntawm tag nrho cov dab neeg uas nws tau hais nyob rau hauv kev xam phaj ib teev thiab ib nrab, tus neeg muaj hnub nyoog 89 xyoo raug nug los ntawm Tim Ferriss, tus neeg ua lag luam thaum ntxov thiab tus kws sau ntawv muaj txiaj ntsig, nws tau kawm dab tsi tam sim no. Nws yog ib tug sobering yog ntsuas teb - tus inductee rau Blackjack Hall of Fame hais tias nws tab tom nyeem txog dab tsi tshwm sim nrog Asmeskas haiv neeg.
Nws tau hais tias "Yuav ua li cas tshwm sim, Kuv tsis xav tias peb tuaj yeem kwv yees paub tseeb tias yuav muaj dab tsi tshwm sim, tab sis peb tuaj yeem pom cov xwm txheej," nws hais. "Koj tuaj yeem muaj lub tebchaws tsis muaj kev ywj pheej uas cov haiv neeg tsawg tau tswj hwm txhua yam thiab txiav txim rau lwm tus. Koj tuaj yeem muaj lub tebchaws muaj kev kub ntxhov uas ib feem ntawm lub tebchaws, tej zaum feem ntau, chim siab heev thiab tsuas yog xav tsoo txhua yam thiab pib dua li cas. "
Thorp tau hais tias "Koj tuaj yeem muaj cov kev xaiv uas kuv nyuam qhuav piav qhia - kev hloov pauv, hloov pauv lossis hloov pauv," Thorp tau hais.
Thorp kuj tau ntsuas hauv qhov ua tau, hais tias tsis muaj leej twg tuaj yeem ua rau qhov loj. Qhov tseem ceeb, tsis muaj hedge yog tias US poob sib nrug. "Kuv xav tias qhov zoo tshaj plaws uas peb tuaj yeem ua tau yog qhia txhua tus kom xav txog lawv tus kheej, yog li lawv tsuas yog tsis coj raws li lawv tau hais hauv xov xwm, lossis lwm hom xov xwm, internet, Twitter, thiab lwm yam, lawv tsuas yog Tsis txhob muab qhov ntawd thiab tsau nws thiab ntseeg nws, tab sis lawv nug nws, thiab nug seb qhov tseeb nws yuav tsis muaj tseeb, thiab qhov laj thawj yog dab tsi rau cov neeg uas tso cov khoom no tawm. "
Thorp cov lus hais tuaj thaum Pawg Neeg Xaiv Tsev tau tshawb xyuas lub Ib Hlis 6 kev tawm tsam ntawm Capitol tab tom txuas ntxiv.
Thorp tau piav qhia qhov nws pom Madoff kev dag ntxias, ib zaj dab neeg uas tau hais ua ntej tab sis tej zaum ntawm no muaj xim ntau dua. Nws tau hais tias "Rov qab xyoo 1991, kuv tau raug caw los saib xyuas cov ntaub ntawv ntawm McKinsey thiab Co. rov qab los hauv New York, thiab lawv muaj kev sib faib nyiaj tau los thiab cov phiaj xwm nyiaj laus," nws hais. "Tab sis muaj ib qho kev nqis peev uas txawv heev, lawv tau luam tawm ib lossis ob feem pua ib hlis, txhua lub hlis. Lawv muaj cov ntaub ntawv rov qab mus rau xyoo 1960s, xav tias, thiab kuv hais tias, 'Lawv ua li cas?' Thiab lawv hais tias, 'Zoo, peb tsis paub meej, lawv qhia peb tias lawv yuav tsis piav qhia tias lawv txoj kev yog dab tsi tab sis peb tuaj yeem qhia peb cov nyiaj rau koj.'
Txhawm rau ua ib zaj dab neeg luv luv, nws pom tias cov kev xaiv zoo uas lub tuam txhab tau hais tias nws siv yuav poob hauv ib hlis - tab sis lub tuam txhab yuav yeej txhua lub hlis. "Thiab yog vim li cas lawv tau nce txhua lub hlis yog vim muaj kev lag luam tsis meej, koom nrog S&P 500 qhov ntsuas kev xaiv, thiab nws ib txwm nyob rau hauv txoj kev."
Peter Madoff, Bernie tus tij laug, thaum lub sijhawm tab tom ua haujlwm ruaj khov thiab tsis cia Thorp tuaj xyuas. Yog li thawj zaug, Thorp pom txog ib feem peb ntawm cov kev lag luam purported tsis tshwm sim nyob qhov twg. Tom qab ntawd nws tau hu rau kev sib cuag ntawm Bear Stearns, nug leej twg nyob rau sab nraud ntawm 10 kev xaiv lag luam Madoff xav tias tau ua. "Yog li lawv tshawb fawb txog kev lag luam thiab lawv rov qab los thiab hais tias, 'Tsis yog, nrhiav tsis tau ib qho ntawm Madoff thiab Co."
Thaum McKinsey tau ua, nrog qee qhov kev yaum, pom zoo kom tsis txhob nqis peev hauv Madoff, Thorp tau hais tias cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov neeg ua lag luam hedge fund uas nws tau qhia tag nrho cov dab neeg kom khaws nyiaj mus txog thaum kawg.
"Yog li tag nrho cov ntsiab lus ntawm qhov no yog ntawm no yog tus neeg uas muaj tag nrho cov ntaub ntawv, nws tau piav qhia meej heev, thiab nws tsuas yog tsis ntseeg nws," Thorp hais.
Kev sib tham tag nrho yog nyob ntawm no:
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-investor-who-spotted-madoffs-fraud-early-has-a-whole-new-worry-11655196333?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo