Qhov tseem ceeb ntawm Vice Premier Liu He's Davos Speech

Xov Xwm Tseem Ceeb

Kev lag luam hauv Esxias tau nce siab dua li Nyij Pooj tau ua tiav raws li BoJ rov lees paub nws txoj kev cog lus los tswj kev nkhaus. Teb Chaws Asmeskas cov ntawv teev npe Suav tau poob nag hmo vim tias Renminbi tsis muaj zog, uas yog qhov kev piav qhia nkaus xwb rau kev muag tawm.

Cov txiaj ntsig tau txais tom qab muaj kev txav mus los nrog kev sib tw thiab tsis muaj zog raws li qhov ntim tau poob ua ntej ntawm Tuam Tshoj lub lis piam hnub so rau lub lim tiam tom ntej yog qhov yuav ua rau muaj kev poob qis me ntsis thiab. Nco ntsoov tias ntau lub tuam txhab ua lag luam tau qis dua qhov chaw, uas txhais tau tias kev thim rov qab zoo li nag hmo yog lub sijhawm rau lawv los kho lawv cov peev nyiaj qis.

Thaum tsaus ntuj Tencent tau nce +1.66% thiab NetEase tau nce +6.51% ntawm kev pom zoo online game tshiab thaum Hong Kong cov ntawv teev npe hauv internet tau poob qis, tab sis tsis ze li ntau npaum li lawv cov neeg koom nrog Asmeskas poob nag hmo. Alibaba HK tau tawm -0.35% hmo ntuj piv rau US ADR -1.56%, JD.com HK -1.75% piv US ADR -5.72%, Baidu HK -2.65% piv rau US ADR -6.02%, uas yog vim li cas peb yuav tsum pom ib rebound hauv US trading tag kis no. Peb kuj muaj CNY txaus siab rau +0.27% piv rau US duas rau 6.75 CNY ib USD los ntawm 6.77 nag hmo, uas yuav tsum yog tailwind rau ADRs.

Hong Kong-daim ntawv teev cov tsheb hluav taws xob tau raug tshem tawm tshwj tsis yog BYD, uas tau nce +0.09%. Cov neeg muag khoom luv luv hauv Hong Kong tau nyob ntsiag to ntawm lig.

Tuam Tshoj Mainland tswj hwm qhov kev nce qib me me raws li Tus Lwm Thawj Coj tau hais lus ntawm World Economic Forum hauv Davos tau txais txiaj ntsig zoo los ntawm Mainland nyiaj txiag xov xwm. Xyoo 2023, Tus Lwm Thawj Coj tau hais tias Tuam Tshoj yuav "... txuas ntxiv siv txoj cai tswjfwm kev lag luam thiab txoj cai tswj hwm nyiaj txiag ... tsom mus rau kev nthuav dav hauv kev thov ... txais tos ntau dua kev nqis peev txawv teb chaws rau Tuam Tshoj, thiab tiv thaiv thiab tiv thaiv kev pheej hmoo nyiaj txiag thiab nyiaj txiag." Suab zoo rau kuv! Tsoom fwv yuav "… unswervingly txhawb txoj kev loj hlob thiab kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam ntiag tug ... pheej qhib rau lub ntiaj teb sab nraud ...". Cov lus hais tau suav nrog kev nkag mus tob rau hauv vaj tsev vim nws qhov tseem ceeb rau kev lag luam raws li "cov nyiaj qiv cuam tshuam nrog kev lag luam vaj tsev account rau ze li 40% ntawm cov nyiaj qiv hauv tuam txhab, cov nyiaj tau los ntawm vaj tse rau 50% ntawm cov peev txheej nyiaj txiag hauv zos, thiab tiag. Cov cuab yeej cuab tam suav rau 60% ntawm cov neeg nyob hauv nroog cov khoom muaj nqis. Txij li thaum ib nrab xyoo 2021, Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam vaj tsev tau ntsib kev poob qis ntawm cov nqi thiab kev muag khoom. Cov tuam txhab vaj tsev feem ntau muaj cov khoom lag luam tsis zoo thiab cov ntawv tshuav nyiaj tsis zoo, thiab cov tuam txhab ua lag luam induvial tab tom ntsib teeb meem loj. "

Nws tsis yog qhov xav tsis thoob tias cov khoom vaj khoom tsev tau tawm hauv Tuam Tshoj Mainland thiab Hong Kong, txawm hais tias cov lus hais tom qab ntawd piv rau kev ntsuas los tiv thaiv vaj tsev los ntawm kev kub ntxhov nyiaj txiag. Cov lus hais qhia txog kev noj haus hauv tsev thiab hais txog kev txhawj xeeb txawv teb chaws ntawm kev vam meej, uas nws tau hais tias tsis yog "welfarism". Nws xaus los ntawm kev hais lus rau tsoomfwv txoj kev siv zog los ua pej xeem thoob ntiaj teb.

Hnub no, Tus Lwm Thawj Coj yuav ntsib nrog Tus Tuav Nyiaj Txiag Tus Tuav Nyiaj Txiag Yellen hauv Zurich, thaum Tus Thawj Fwm Tsav Tebchaws Blinken tau hais tias yuav tuaj xyuas Tuam Tshoj thawj lub lim tiam ntawm Lub Ob Hlis.

Cov tub ua lag luam txawv teb chaws tau ntxiv $ 701 lab hauv Mainland cov khoom lag luam ntawm Northbound Stock Connect rau kaum ib hnub ncaj vim tias tsuas muaj ib hnub tawm hauv 2023. Kom meej meej, cov tub ua lag luam txawv teb chaws tab tom pivoting thiab nce lawv cov peev hauv Suav teb. Koj puas yog? Tuam Tshoj Mainland lub khw lag luam tuaj yeem nce tus nqi raws li cov neeg lag luam hauv Suav teb xav txog Tuam Tshoj, uas yog qhov zoo rau kev pom zoo tom qab kev daws teeb meem ntawm Zero COVID thiab teeb meem vaj tsev. Kev nqis peev txawv teb chaws hauv Hong Kong thiab Asmeskas cov ntawv teev npe Suav cov khoom lag luam zoo li yuav nce ntxiv ua tsaug rau tsis yog tsuas yog kev daws teeb meem ntawm ob qhov teeb meem no, tab sis kuj yog kev txhim kho hauv kev sib raug zoo ntawm Asmeskas-Tuam Tshoj. Nco ntsoov peb "Post Party Congress Policy Pivot ntawm Peb Qhov Loj: US-Tuam Tshoj kev sib raug zoo, xoom covid, thiab vaj tse."

Nag hmo, peb tau tshaj tawm tias kev muag khoom muag tau nqis los ntawm -1.8% hauv lub Kaum Ob Hlis thiab -0.2% xyoo dhau los rau xyoo 2022. Hauv cov ntaub ntawv yog qhov kev pom zoo yog tias koj khawb rau hauv daim ntawv tshaj tawm vim tias cov khw muag khoom hauv online tau nce 4.4% hauv lub Kaum Ob Hlis. thiab 6.2% hauv 2022. Tsis suav nrog kev muag tsheb thiab khw noj mov, Tuam Tshoj feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov khw muag khoom muag uas tshwm sim hauv online tau nce mus rau 34.2% los ntawm 32.3% hauv 2022. Txaus siab heev!

Kuv nyuam qhuav ua tiav Morgan Housel phau ntawv Psychology ntawm Nyiaj. Kuv xav kom nws vim nws yog ib qho yooj yim thiab digestible nyeem tsis muaj jargon. Nws kuj tseem siv cov lus piav qhia nthuav dav thiab sib raug zoo kom tau txais cov ntsiab lus hla thiab rov hais dua cov lus qhia tseem ceeb ntawm kev nqis peev. Cov ntaub ntawv tsis sib haum xeeb thiab cov lus sib xyaw ua ke tau ceeb toom rau kuv, txawm hais tias kuv nyiam heev Tshooj 17 "Lub Hwj Chim ntawm Kev Pessimism" thiab Tshooj 18 "Thaum Koj Yuav Ntseeg Txhua Yam." Cov tshooj yog nrawm thiab ncaj qha yog li tsis txhob ntshai los ntawm cov tshooj siab, vim tias phau ntawv tsuas yog 238 nplooj ntawv xwb. Lub Hwj Chim ntawm Pessimism sau tseg li cas cov xov xwm thiab peb lub hlwb feem ntau tsom rau qhov tsis zoo es tsis yog qhov zoo, kev vam meej qeeb thiab nyuaj rau ntsuas tab sis kev poob qis sai. Peb txhua tus tuaj yeem cuam tshuam nrog lub tswv yim hais tias "...pessimists feem ntau nthuav tawm cov qauv tam sim no yam tsis suav nrog kev lag luam hloov pauv li cas." Tib neeg yog cov ntse, cov teeb meem daws teeb meem tau tsim los ntawm kev hloov pauv! Xav txog tag nrho cov xov xwm ntawm Tuam Tshoj cov pej xeem poob qis, uas xav tias tsoomfwv Suav yuav zaum ib puag ncig thiab tsis ua dab tsi. Qhov ntawd tsis zoo li! Tshooj 18 muaj lub npe zoo tshaj plaws "Thov txaus siab rau cov ntawv tseeb, thiab vim li cas cov dab neeg muaj zog dua li kev txheeb cais." Peb nrhiav tau cov lus piav qhia thiab cov ntsiab lus los txhawb es tsis yog tawm tsam lossis tawm tsam peb txoj kev ntseeg. Vim li cas? Vim tias nws yuav nyuaj ua haujlwm los tawm tsam peb cov kev xav thiab ua qhov kev tshawb fawb. Yog li, vim li cas thab? Cov tshooj no cuam tshuam nrog kuv raws li kuv txoj haujlwm hauv Suav teb, raws li kuv paub tseeb tias koj nkag siab. Nws yog ib qho zoo nyeem tsis hais koj cov kev xav hauv Suav teb!

Hang Seng thiab Hang Seng Tech tau nce +0.47% thiab +0.54% ntawm ntim +0.88% los ntawm nag hmo uas yog 101% ntawm 1-xyoo nruab nrab. 250 cov khoom lag luam nce siab thaum 229 cov khoom lag luam tsis kam. Main Board luv turnover nce +1.36% los ntawm nag hmo uas yog 89% ntawm 1-xyoo nruab nrab li 15% ntawm turnover yog luv turnover. Tus nqi thiab kev loj hlob muaj hnub zoo li lub kaus mom loj tshaj cov me me loj. Cov khoom lag luam sab saum toj yog tech +1.9%, kev sib txuas lus +1.54% thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob +1.33% thaum vaj tse -1.54%, kev txiav txim siab -0.68% thiab staples -0.66%. Sab saum toj sub-sectors yog semis, technical hardware / khoom siv thiab software thaum khw muag khoom, kev pabcuam kev lag luam thiab khoom noj / dej haus / luam yeeb yog qhov phem tshaj. Southbound Stock Connect ntim tau teeb pom kev zoo li cov tub ua lag luam hauv av tau yuav $ 143 hli ntawm HK cov khoom lag luam nrog Meituan ib qho khoom nruab nrab yuav, Tencent ib lub vas me me thiab Kuiashou ib lub vas muag me me.

Shanghai, Shenzhen thiab STAR Board tau nce +0.01%, +0.18% thiab +0.31% ntawm ntim -9.89% los ntawm nag hmo uas yog 70% ntawm 1-xyoo nruab nrab. 2,894 cov khoom lag luam nce siab thaum 1,638 tsis kam. Kev loj hlob thiab tus nqi tseem ceeb tau sib xyaw ua cov kaus mom me me tshaj lub kaus mom loj. Sab saum toj sectors yog kev sib txuas lus +2.42%, zog +1.09% thiab tech +0.77% thaum vaj tse -0.98%, staples -0.67% thiab kho mob -0.51%. Cov subsectors saum toj kawg nkaus tau muaj ntau hom nyiaj txiag, software thiab kev sib txuas lus thaum kev lag luam hav zoov, khoom noj thiab khoom siv hauv tsev yog qhov phem tshaj. Northbound Stock Connect ntim tau teeb / nruab nrab raws li cov tub ua lag luam txawv teb chaws tau yuav $ 701mm ntawm cov khoom lag luam hauv av loj. CNY tau nce +0.27% piv rau US duas kom kaw ntawm 6.75, Treasury nkhaus steepend thiab Shanghai tooj liab nce +1.66%.

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Hmo Kawg Ntawm Kev Sib Pauv Cov Nqi, Tus Nqi, & Liaj Teb

• CNY rau USD 6.75 piv rau 6.78 nag hmo
• CNY rau EUR 7.32 piv rau 7.35 nag hmo
• Tos ntawm 10-Xyoo Tsoom Fwv Nyiaj 2.92% piv rau 2.90% nag hmo
• Tos ntawm 10-xyoo Tuam Tshoj Kev Tsim Kho Nyiaj Txiag Nyiaj 3.08% tiv tiag 3.06% nag hmo
• Tus Nqi Tooj Liab + 1.66% dhau ib hmo