Lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav nrov hauv tsev-yuav lub caij tsuas yog nce. Tab sis ib tus kws tshuaj ntsuam tau ceeb toom tias nws tuaj yeem yog qhov tawg.
Ian Shepherdson, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag thiab tus tsim ntawm kev tshawb fawb kev lag luam Pantheon Macroeconomics, tau kwv yees qhov kev poob qis hauv kev muag khoom hauv tsev xyoo no. Hauv tsab ntawv tshawb fawb, nws tau kwv yees tias kev muag khoom hauv tsev tam sim no yuav poob qis li 25% ntawm lub xyoo pace ntawm 6.02 lab teem rau lub Ob Hlis mus rau tus nqi ntawm 4.5 lab nyob rau thaum xaus ntawm lub caij ntuj sov.
"Kev lag luam vaj tsev nyob yog nyob rau theem pib ntawm kev poob qis hauv kev ua haujlwm, uas yuav ua rau muaj kev poob qis hauv tus nqi nce ntawm cov nqi tsev, pib sai li sai tau thaum lub caij nplooj ntoo hlav," Shepherdson tau sau rau hauv tsab ntawv tshawb fawb uas tau tshaj tawm hnub Sunday.
Raws li cov ntaub ntawv pov thawj ntawm qhov kev xav tau qeeb hauv kev muag hauv tsev, Shepherdson tau taw qhia rau kev thov qiv nyiaj. Cov ntaub ntawv tsis ntev los no ntawm daim ntawv thov qiv nyiaj los ntawm Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Nyiaj Txiag Hauv Lub Tsev Haujlwm qhia tau hais tias cov ntawv thov qiv nyiaj siv los yuav tsev tau qis dua 8% piv rau ib xyoos dhau los. Piv txwv li, kev thov rau refinancing tau poob ze li ntawm 50% piv rau xyoo tas los.
Kev poob qis hauv kev thov qiv nyiaj tuaj yeem kwv yees qhov kev poob qis hauv kev muag hauv tsev, vim tias feem ntau cov neeg yuav khoom vam khom nyiaj txiag kom paub tseeb tias kev yuav khoom loj. Cov teeb meem nyob ib puag ncig kev them taus yog qhov yuav liam rau qhov poob. Raws li hnub Thursday, qhov nruab nrab tus paj laum ntawm 30-xyoo tus nqi qiv nyiaj tau tshaj 4% thawj zaug txij li lub Tsib Hlis 2019, Raws li Freddie Mac
FMCC,
Raws li Shepherdson cov kev suav, qhov nce ntawm cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj txij li lub Cuaj Hli tau nce tus nqi ntawm kev them nqi tsev txhua hli rau cov nqi nruab nrab hauv tsev ntau dua $ 400, lossis 27%.
"Qhov ntawd yog qhov nce loj heev, txawm tias cov tsev neeg zaum ntawm cov nyiaj khaws cia thaum muaj kev sib kis - ib zaug nce hauv kev khaws nyiaj tsis tuaj yeem pab nyiaj nce nqi qiv nyiaj rau 30 xyoo tom ntej - thiab nws yuav thawb qhov kev thov qis dua, ”nws sau.
Qhov tseeb, kev them taus yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm lub siab rau cov neeg yuav khoom niaj hnub no. Kev tshawb fawb tsis ntev los no los ntawm US News & World Report pom tias ze li ntawm ib nrab ntawm cov neeg yuav khoom hais tias kev them taus yog lawv qhov kev txhawj xeeb loj tshaj plaws, txawm hais tias feem coob ntawm cov kev tshawb fawb tau qhia tias lawv tseem muaj kev cia siab tias lawv yuav muaj peev xwm yuav tsev nyob rau xyoo tom ntej.
"'Kev nce ib zaug hauv kev khaws nyiaj tsis tuaj yeem ua rau kev nce nyiaj hauv tsev rau 30 xyoo tom ntej.'"
Shepherdson tau hais tias qhov kev cuam tshuam ntawm kev hloov pauv hauv kev muag khoom hauv tsev uas twb muaj lawm yuav ncav cuag, Shepherdson tau hais tias, kev sib cav tias kev nce nqi xauj tsev yuav qeeb thiab tej zaum txawm rov qab los. Nws kuj tseem yuav kis mus rau kev muag tsev tshiab, uas nws xav tias yuav poob zoo ib yam. Kev txo qis hauv kev muag tsev tshiab yuav sawv cev rau kev poob qis ntawm GDP, vim qhov ntawd yuav cuam tshuam qhov kev thov tsawg dua rau cov kev pabcuam cuam tshuam nrog kev tsim vaj tsev thiab kev siv nyiaj tsawg dua rau cov khoom xws li cov khoom siv hauv tsev thiab cov khoom siv.
Cov xov xwm phem rau txhua tus neeg Asmeskas uas pheej sim yuav tsev nyob rau hauv cov xwm txheej no yog tias nws tsis tshua meej tias qhov xwm txheej no yuav cuam tshuam li cas rau lub tsev muag khoom. Ib feem ntawm vim li cas cov nqi tsev tau nce siab yog tias muaj qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov khoom muag hauv kev lag luam vaj tsev, uas tau ua rau muaj kev sib tw rau ob peb lub tsev uas tau teev tseg rau kev muag khoom.
Kev poob qis hauv kev thov yuav zoo li ua rau muaj kev txhawb nqa hauv cov khoom muag ntawm cov tsev muag khoom. Tab sis Shepherdson tau ceeb toom tias ntau tus neeg muag khoom tuaj yeem rub cov npe lossis tsis kam tso lawv lub tsev rau hauv kev lag luam vim tias "tsis muaj leej twg xav ua tus neeg kawg sim muag rau hauv kev lag luam poob."
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-housing-market-is-in-the-early-stages-of-a-substantial-downshift-home-sales-may-drop-25-by- the-end-of-summer-according-to-this-analyst-11647884229?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo