Lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav no, lub Fed plua plav tawm ntawm ole inflation-sighting playbook. Nws mus zoo li no: Lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv tuam txhab siv nyiaj nce siab rau cov paj laum ntev-nrog rau cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj-los ntawm kev qhia tias cov nqi luv luv yuav sai sai no. Cov spiking nqi tsev tom qab ntawd thawb ob qho tib si muag tsev thiab kev tsim vaj tsev qis dua. Qhov ntawd ua rau kev thov rau cov khoom lag luam (xws li ntoo thiab pob zeb) thiab cov khoom siv ruaj khov (xws li countertops thiab tub yees) poob. Cov kev lag luam kev lag luam ntawd kis mus thoob plaws hauv kev lag luam thiab, hauv txoj kev xav, pab txo qis kev nce nqi.
cov Kev kho vaj tse theem, tau kawg, twb pib lawm.
Thoob plaws hauv lub tebchaws, cov neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev tau tso lawv qhov kev tshawb nrhiav hauv tsev rau ncua. Nyob rau tib lub sij hawm ntawm lub xyoo, muag tsev tshiab thiab muag tsev uas twb muaj lawm Tam sim no poob 29.6% thiab 20.2%. Thiab tsev neeg ib leeg pib thiab daim ntawv thov kev yuav tsev qiv nyiaj poob 18.5% thiab 23%, feem. Yooj yim muab: Kev ua vaj tse yog kev cog lus-ceev.
Txawm koj hu li cas los—a kho vaj tse, vaj tse kev txom nyem, los yog vaj tse poob qis- nws nyob deb dhau lawm. Tsuas yog saib cov nqi tsev. Taug qab mus rau hauv lub xyoo, qhov nruab nrab 30-xyoo tus nqi qiv tsev nyob ntawm 3.1%. Uas tau ntev lawm. Hnub Thursday, nws nce mus rau 6.23%- qhov thib ob qhov nyiaj txais qiv nyiaj siab tshaj plaws ntawm 2022.
Yog tias tus neeg qiv nyiaj rho tawm $ 500,000 qiv nyiaj ntawm 3.2% tus nqi, lawv yuav pom $ 2,162 them txhua hli. Ntawm 6.23% tus nqi, qhov nyiaj them txhua hli yuav yog $ 3,072 tshaj li 30 xyoo qiv. Cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj siab no-coupled nrog frothy tsev nqi uas dhia 43% thaum muaj kev sib kis-tsuas yog them nyiaj hli tshiab tsis tsim nyog rau ntau tus neeg yuav khoom. Lwm tsev neeg (saib daim duab hauv qab no) tau poob lawv qhov kev tsim nyog txais yuav tsev tag nrho.
Saib daim ntawv qhia sib tham sib ntawm Fortune.com
Tsuav tus nqi qiv nyiaj thiab nqi tsev ob qho tib si tseem nyob rau qhov siab no, cov neeg sab hauv kev lag luam hais tias kev lag luam vaj tsev yuav poob mus ntxiv.
Nyuam qhuav pib lub lim tiam, Goldman Sachs tau tshaj tawm cov kev kwv yees kho dua. Lub tuam txhab peev tam sim no ua haujlwm tias GDP vaj tsev yuav poob 8.9% hauv 2022, thiab lwm 9.2% hauv 2023. Qhov ntawd yuav ua rau thawj qhov kev poob qis ntawm lub sijhawm tom qab-Great Financial Crisis era. Tus neeg ua txhaum? Tus nqi pheej yig crunch (saib daim duab hauv qab no) tshwm sim los ntawm spiking nqi tsev.
Saib daim ntawv qhia sib tham sib ntawm Fortune.com
Cov xov xwm phem rau cov neeg yuav khoom? Nws tuaj yeem yog ib ntus ua ntej muaj ntau tus nqi nyem.
Mark Zandi, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ntawm Moody's Analytics tau hais tias "Kuv tseem cia siab tias tus nqi nruab nrab yog 5.5% dhau los ntawm lub xyoo tas los," Fortune.
Thaum Asmeskas kev ua lag luam pib poob qis, Zandi hais tias, kev lag luam nyiaj txiag yuav tsum pib yooj yim ntawm cov nqi tsev; nyob rau hauv txoj kev xav, kev lag luam tsis muaj zog, ua ke nrog kev poob nyiaj txiag, yuav ua rau Fed kom yooj yim rau nws txoj kev sib ntaus sib tua. Txawm li cas los xij, yog tias kev ua lag luam overheated nyob twj ywm, cov nqi yuav mus ntau dua.
"Tau kawg, yog tias kev ua lag luam tseem nyob ruaj khov, Fed yuav tsum nruj dua li kev lag luam tau cia siab, thiab cov nqi tsev [yuav mus] siab dua thiab qhov kawg kev puas tsuaj rau lub tsev lag luam [yuav] ntau dua," Zandi sau tseg. .
Xav nyob tshiab rau kev kho vaj tse? Ua raws kuv qab Twitter at @NewsLambert.
Zaj dab neeg no yog thaum chiv keeb los Fortune.com
Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-market-correction-far-over-095616427.html