Hnub Tuesday, kev tso tawm haujlwm tau tsoo ob lub npe loj tshaj plaws hauv vaj tsev. Ua ntej, Redfin tshaj tawm tias nws tau tso 8% ntawm nws cov neeg ua haujlwm. Tom qab ntawd Compass, yog ib lub teb chaws loj tshaj plaws nyob hauv brokerages, tshaj tawm tias nws tau txiav 10% ntawm nws cov neeg ua haujlwm.
"Hnub no kev tso tawm yog qhov tshwm sim ntawm qhov tsis txaus ntawm Redfin cov nyiaj tau los, tsis yog nyob rau hauv cov neeg raug tso tseg ... nrog lub Tsib Hlis xav tau 17% qis dua qhov kev cia siab, peb tsis muaj haujlwm txaus rau peb cov neeg sawv cev thiab cov neeg ua haujlwm txhawb nqa," sau Redfin hauv ib nqe lus tshaj tawm lub 470 txoj haujlwm txiav. Compass kuj tau hais txog lub tsev nyob qeeb raws li qhov ua txhaum rau nws 450 layoffs.
Thaum lub Plaub Hlis, Asmeskas kev lag luam vaj tsev nkag mus rau hauv hom qeeb. Tab sis raws li cov ntaub ntawv yob rau lub Tsib Hlis thiab Lub Rau Hli, peb tab tom kawm tias qhov no tsis yog ib qho me me qeeb-Nws yog kev hloov pauv sai. Moody's Analytics tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag Mark Zandi qhia Fortune peb tau mus los ntawm lub tsev boom mus rau hauv tag nrho-blown "tsev kho mob" thiab yuav pom sai sai rau xyoo dhau ib xyoo ntawm tus nqi tsev loj hlob poob los ntawm cov ntaub ntawv 20.6% mus rau 0%. Yog tias kev lag luam poob qis, Moody's Analytics cia siab tias yuav poob 5% thoob ntiaj teb tus nqi poob - suav nrog 15% mus rau 20% poob. nyob rau hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam "overvalued" hauv cheeb tsam. Thaum Zandi tsis xav kom muaj vaj tse nyob hauv xyoo 2008, nws tau saib xyuas qhov xwm txheej zoo.
Dab tsi thawb lub khw vaj tsev nyob saum toj? Ib qho kev sib xyaw ntawm ntuj-siab nqi tsev, uas tau dhau los ua cais tawm ntawm cov hauv paus kev lag luam, thiab nce nqi tsev qiv nyiaj uas tau ua rau cov neeg yuav tsev thaum kawg thawb rov qab. Cov neeg yuav khoom xav tau poob qis-ceev.
Nyob rau lub hlis dhau los, qhov nruab nrab 30-xyoo tsev qiv nyiaj tau nce los ntawm 3.1% mus rau 6.28% as Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tau hloov mus rau hauv hom kev sib ntaus sib tua. Cov nqi tsev tam sim no nyob rau theem siab tshaj plaws txij li xyoo 2008. Qhov 3.18 feem pua taw tes dhia kuj yog qhov loj tshaj qhov kev sib tw nce siab hauv cov nqi tsev txij li xyoo 1981-ib xyoos uas pom qhov nruab nrab 30-xyoo tus nqi ruaj khov siab tshaj 18% raws li Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tau ua tiav rau tame lub sij hawm inflationary uas tau tawm thaum lub sij hawm '70s.
Saib daim ntawv qhia sib tham sib ntawm Fortune.com
Kev nce nqi tsev qiv nyiaj txhais tau tias qee tus qiv nyiaj, uas yuav tsum ua kom tau raws li cov qiv nyiaj nruj-rau-cov nyiaj tau los sib piv, poob lawv qhov kev tsim nyog txais yuav tag nrho. Lwm tus, tsuas yog yuav tsum tau pony nce ntau-ntau ntxiv.
Yog tias tus neeg qiv nyiaj rho tawm $ 500,000 qiv tsev nyob rau lub Rau Hli 2021 ntawm qhov nruab nrab qhov nruab nrab ntawm 3.1%, lawv yuav tshuav $ 2,135 ib hlis. Ntawm 6.28% tus nqi, tus thawj tswj hwm thiab cov paj laum tau los ntawm $ 3,088. Tab sis qhov ntawd yog piv txwv tias tus nqi vaj tsev loj hlob. Tam sim no cia peb hais tias lub tsev pom tus nqi loj hlob ntawm 20.6% (piv txwv li, kev nyeem ntawv xyoo dhau los xyoo dhau los rau kev loj hlob hauv tsev). Qhov ntawd yuav thawb lub tsev qiv nyiaj mus rau $ 603,000. Ntawm 6.25% tus nqi tas, $ 603,000 qiv nyiaj los nrog $ 3,725 them txhua hli. Mus ntawm $ 2,135 txog $ 3,725 yog 74% dhia.
Qhov no hypothetical tsis dhau deb ntawm qhov tseeb. Ali Wolf, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ntawm Zonda, lub tuam txhab tshawb fawb txog vaj tsev, muab kev xam nyiaj qiv nyiaj rau Asmeskas 100 qhov loj tshaj plaws hauv cheeb tsam tsev lag luam rau Fortune. Qhov nrhiav tau? Hauv rau lub hlis dhau los, qhov kev them nqi tsev tshiab tau nce mus txog 52%. Hauv qee lub khw, suav nrog Tampa thiab Raleigh, NC, nws nce ntau dua 60%.
Tau kawg, raws li cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj nce thiab cov neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev tau raug kaw, qhov kev ua haujlwm qeeb qeeb yog ib qho kev hem thawj rau tag nrho kev lag luam. Cue layoffs ntawm Redfin thiab Compass.
Saib daim ntawv qhia sib tham sib ntawm Fortune.com
Thiab cov layoffs no tsis yog ib qho anomaly.
Ob peb lub lis piam dhau los cov neeg qiv nyiaj qiv nyiaj tau pib txiav lawv cov npe Raws li cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj ntau dua tau ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam rau kev qiv qiv nyiaj rov qab (nqis 75% xyoo nyob rau xyoo) thiab pom kev yuav khoom (nqis 20.5% xyoo nyob rau xyoo) kuj qeeb heev. Tam sim no, nyiaj txiag carnage tau nthuav dav tshaj li cov tuam txhab qiv nyiaj.
Yog tias lub khw lag luam yog ib qho kev qhia, Zillow kuj tuaj yeem hnov qhov pinch. Hauv peb lub hlis dhau los, feem ntawm Compass thiab Redfin tau poob qis 38% thiab 51%, feem. Lub caij no, Zillow tau nqis 33% nyob rau tib lub sijhawm.
Kev kho vaj tse nrawm dua "kev kho" kuj txhais tau tias cov tuam txhab xws li Redfin thiab Zillow tau tso tseg tag nrho lawv cov khoom lag luam tau txais txiaj ntsig thaum muaj kev sib kis thoob plaws lub tsev nyob. Tshaj li 24 lub hlis dhau los, feem ntawm Redfin tau nqis 74% thaum Zillow shares poob 43%. Txij li thaum nws thawj zaug muab rau pej xeem thaum lub Plaub Hlis 2021, Compass shares tau nqis 79%.
Peb yuav tsum xav li cas ntxiv? Raws li cov neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev txuas ntxiv rov qab, qhov cua txias kuj tseem yuav hnyav dua. Nyob rau lub hlis tom ntej, peb yuav tsum pom Asmeskas kev lag luam vaj tse nyob hauv nws "kev cog lus tseem ceeb tshaj plaws hauv kev ua haujlwm txij li xyoo 2006," tweeted Freddie Mac Tus Lwm Thawj Saib Xyuas Kev Lag Luam Len Kiefer rau hnub Thursday.
Tab sis tsis txhob xaum rau hauv vaj tse tawg - yam tsawg kawg tseem tsis tau, hais tias Logan Mohtashami, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam ntawm HousingWire.
National Association of Realtors qhia Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam vaj tse nce mus txog 1.03 lab mus rau lub Tsib Hlis. Txhawm rau kom tau txais kev lag luam vaj tsev "ib txwm", peb yuav tsum xub pom cov khoom muag nce mus rau thaj tsam ntawm 1.52 lab rau 1.93 lab tsev nyob. Thaum nws tshaj 2 lab units, Mohtashami hais tias, US cov nqi tsev tuaj yeem pib poob rau ib xyoos dhau ib xyoos. Nws vam tias lawv yuav poob thaum kawg vim, hauv nws lub qhov muag, lub caij nplooj ntoo hlav no lawv tsuas yog siab dhau.
Yog tias koj xav paub txog kev hloov pauv vaj tsev nyob, ua raws kuv ntawm Twitter ntawm @NewsLambert.
Zaj dab neeg no yog thaum chiv keeb los Fortune.com
Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-market-correction-intensifies-layoffs-215548002.html