Kev lag luam vaj tsev npuas tseem tuaj yeem tawg hauv 2023

Jeremy Grantham yog ib tus neeg ua lag luam muaj kev hwm tshaj plaws hauv ntiaj teb. Nws nrhiav tau GMA, ib tug behemoth nrog 40-xyoo taug qab cov ntaub ntawv nyob rau hauv kev lag luam thiab tshaj $71 billion cov cuab tam nyob rau hauv kev tswj. Thaum nws hais cov tub ua lag luam mloog. Piv txwv li, tsis ntev los no nws tau ceeb toom tias tus S&P 500 index tuaj yeem poob mus txog $ 3,200, ~ 21% qis dua qib tam sim no. Nws kuj tau ceeb toom tias lub tsev lag luam npuas yuav tawg sai sai.

Cov nqi tsev poob qis

Kev ua lag luam vaj tsev tau dhau los ntawm nws lub sijhawm nyuaj tshaj plaws hauv ntau tshaj li kaum xyoo raws li cov paj laum hauv ntau lub teb chaws nce. Cov nqi tau poob hauv lub tebchaws xws li Sweden, UK, United States, thiab Australia txhua tus tau poob qis tom qab tau nce mus rau lawv cov ntsiab lus siab tshaj plaws hauv ntau xyoo caum thaum muaj kev sib kis. 

Puas yog koj tab tom nrhiav kom tau cov xov xwm ceev, kub-cov lus qhia thiab kev tsom xam kev ua lag luam?

Sau npe rau Invezz cov ntawv xov xwm, hnub no.

Sweden, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog, tau ua phem me ntsis, nrog rau cov nqi tau muaj lub sijhawm ntawm kev txheeb xyuas tau poob ntawm qhov nrawm tshaj plaws txij li xyoo 1990. Thiab cov kws tshuaj ntsuam ntseeg tias Swedish cov nqi tsev tuaj yeem poob li ntawm 20% los ntawm lawv qhov siab tshaj plaws hauv 2022. 

Hauv tebchaws Askiv, cov ntaub ntawv luam tawm los ntawm Halifax tau pom tias cov nqi tsev txuas ntxiv poob rau lub Ib Hlis, txuas ntxiv cov qauv uas tau pib rau lub hlis ua ntej. Tib yam tshwm sim nyob rau hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas, qhov twg S&P / Case-Shiller lub tsev nqi ntsuas tau txuas ntxiv qis dua raws li qhia hauv qab no.

Cov paj laum txuas ntxiv nce xyoo no, raws li peb tau sau hauv qhov no tsab xov xwm. Thiab, nrog kev nce nqi tseem tawv tawv thiab kev ua lag luam nruj, muaj qhov ua tau tias Fed yuav txuas ntxiv mus nce toj. Hauv tsab ntawv tshaj tawm lub lim tiam dhau los, James Bullard tau hais qhia tias tus nqi tuaj yeem nce mus txog 7%. Qee tus kws tshawb fawb txog nyiaj txiag txawm pom cov nqi nce mus rau ntawm 8% thiab 9%.

Jeremy Grantham ntawm kev lag luam vaj tsev poob

Nws yog tawm tsam qhov teeb meem no uas Jeremy Grantham ceeb toom txog cov khoom lag luam thiab vaj tsev. Nws tau ceeb toom tias lub ntiaj teb kev lag luam vaj tsev npuas twb tab tom ua raws li cov nqi qiv nyiaj siab ua rau nws tsis tsim nyog. Tsis tas li ntawd, nws tau ceeb toom tias cov npuas vaj tsev yuav siv li ob mus rau peb xyoos los ua kom tiav. Nws nqe lus hais tias:

"Kev tawg ntawm lub ntiaj teb cov vaj tsev nyob, uas tsuas yog pib xwb, zoo li yuav muaj kev cuam tshuam kev lag luam hnyav dua li qhov poob ntawm cov khoom lag luam muaj, rau cov nqi npuas loj hauv cov khoom lag luam tau raug kaw rau Asmeskas nkaus xwb."

Hauv tib nqe lus, Jeremy Grantham tau ceeb toom tias S&P 500 tuaj yeem tsoo txog li $ 3,200. Qhov no yog qhov tseem ceeb txij li Grantham tau coj lub suab nrov hauv ob peb xyoos dhau los. Thiab nws cov kev kwv yees feem ntau yog lawm.

Lub npuas puas yuav tawg?

Uas tau hais tias, raws li kuv sau hauv kuv next tsev lag luam poob kev twv ua ntej, lub tswv yim tias peb yuav muaj kev kub ntxhov zoo li xyoo 2008 sai sai no zoo li nyob deb vim tias cov xwm txheej txawv ntau. Rau ib qho, raws li qhia hauv qab no, kev thov rau subprime qiv nyiaj tau poob qis hauv ob peb xyoos dhau los. Raws li Fred, qhov kev thov no sawv ntawm kwv yees li -85.6%.

Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, kev thov rau vaj tse tseem muaj zog, nrog rau qhov kev sib tw tseem ceeb yog cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj ntau dua. Hauv kuv qhov kev xav, cov nqi yuav poob mus ntxiv vim yog qhov teeb meem them taus thiab tom qab ntawd rov pib qhov kev nce siab thaum cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj poob thiab cov khoom muag nce. Qhov tseeb, cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj tau poob qis hauv ob peb lub lis piam dhau los.

Qhov kev pom no yog ua raws li cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas ntawm Morgan Stanley ceeb toom. Hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom, lawv tau ceeb toom tias cov nqi tsev yuav poob li ntawm 10% thaum Lub Rau Hli xyoo tom ntej thiab 2024. Yog li, puas yuav ua rau lub tsev lag luam npuas tawg hauv 2023? Thaum cov nqi yuav poob qis, kuv tsis tuaj yeem piav qhia tias yog ib qho zoo ib yam li qhov tshwm sim hauv 2008/9. Tseeb, raws li qhia hauv qab no, feem ntau qub txeeg qub tes ETFs tau nkag mus zoo heev, nrog Invesco Active US Real Estate Fund (PSR) thiab Schwab Real ETF (SCHH) nce 22% los ntawm lawv qhov qis tshaj plaws hauv 2022.