Tau muaj seismic, kev hloov pauv tseem ceeb hauv kev lag luam thiab kev lag luam kev lag luam uas tau tswj hwm Asmeskas - thiab ntau lub ntiaj teb - rau peb lub xyoo dhau los.
Los yog hais tias BlackRock, lub ntiaj teb cov cuab yeej cuab tam loj tshaj plaws, nyob rau hauv nws qhov kev pom zoo ib nrab xyoo.
Lub Great Moderation tau dhau lawm, lub tuam txhab sib cav, hais txog lub sijhawm ntev xyoo ntawm kev loj hlob ruaj khov thiab poob qis lossis kev nce nqi qis. Thiab cov ntaub ntawv tsis ntev los no qhia meej meej txog qhov kev hloov pauv hauv toj roob hauv pes nrog kev nce nqi nce 9.1% nyob rau lub Rau Hli, raws li cov ntaub ntawv tshiab los ntawm BLS.
Pib nyob rau hauv nruab nrab-1980s, tsim-kev lag luam central bankers tswj kom tsis txhob muaj pitfalls ntawm yuav tsum tau txi kev loj hlob rau kev nce nqi - los yog vice-versa. Rau ntau tus neeg ua lag luam Western, qhov no tsuas yog ib puag ncig lawv tau paub.
Vivek Paul, tus thawj coj ntawm kev tshawb fawb portfolio ntawm BlackRock Investment Institute thiab tus kws sau ntawv tshaj tawm tau hais tias "Peb xav tias lub sijhawm Zoo Tshaj Plaws no - uas kuv tau pom tau siv tag nrho kuv txoj haujlwm hauv - saib rau peb." "Nws zoo li peb nyob hauv ib puag ncig uas qhov kev hloov pauv tsuas yog kev tsim kho yuav siab dua."
Peb yam tseem ceeb tau ua rau qhov kev hloov pauv no, hais tias BlackRock:
Kev txwv kev xa khoom yog qeeb kev loj hlob thiab tsav kev nce nqi.
Sau cov nuj nqis txhais tau hais tias cov paj laum nce siab rau tsoomfwv, tsev neeg, thiab tuam txhab.
Political splintering ua rau nws nyuaj dua kom ua tiav cov kev daws teeb meem nuanced.
Los ntawm kev xav txog kev lag luam, nws yog kab tias thawj lub ntsiab lus tseem ceeb tshaj plaws tam sim ntawd, vim tias nws cuam tshuam rau lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv tuam txhab nyiaj txiag, Paul hais.
Cov tsev txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab uas lees paub qhov nyuaj ntawm kev tawm tsam kev nce nqi yam tsis muaj kev cuam tshuam kev loj hlob yog qhov zoo dua nyob rau hauv qhov chaw tshiab no. Qhov tseem ceeb, BlackRock tsis suav Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve hauv qeb ntawd.
"Cov neeg tsim cai lij choj, suav nrog Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve, tsis paub meej txog qhov kev lees paub meej ntawm qhov kev sib pauv ntawd, lub tswv yim hais tias nyob rau hauv ib puag ncig uas muaj kev tswj hwm, tus nqi nce siab nws yuav xav tau kom ua tiav qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev nce nqi ntau dua, thiab ua rau Kev puas tsuaj ntau dua rau kev lag luam dav dav, "Paul hais.
Ua raws li hnub Wednesday cov ntaub ntawv nce nqi, Wall Street cov kws lag luam nyiaj txiag tau pom zoo dav tias lwm qhov kev nce qib 0.75% yuav los ntawm Fed tom qab lub hlis no.
BlackRock tau teb rau qhov kev hloov dej hiav txwv no los ntawm downgrading nws outlook rau stocks thiab txiav nws raug rau cov tsim-kev lag luam sib npaug.
BlackRock pom lwm qhov cuam tshuam uas sawv cev rau kev hloov pauv hauv qhov uas tau dhau los ua "ib txwm" txoj hauv kev rau kev nqis peev, suav nrog:
"Cov kev tswj hwm no tsis tas yuav yog ib qho rau 'yuav lub dip."
Lub 60/40 stock/bond portfolio tsis ua hauj lwm lawm, thiab kev pheej hmoo premia yuav nce siab rau ob qho tib si stocks thiab bonds.
Cov neeg ua lag luam yuav tsum tau ua kom nrawm dua.
Mammoth asset manager tsis yog lub tuam txhab nkaus xwb los tig ceev faj ntxiv rau cov khoom lag luam, tab sis yeej tseem ceeb hauv nws qhov kev hu xov tooj ntau dua rau kev hloov tswj hwm.
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Julie Hyman yog tus nplaib sib xyaw ntawm Yahoo Finance Live, hnub ua haujlwm 9 am-11 sawv ntxov ET. Ua raws li nws ntawm Twitter @juleshyman, Thiab nyeem nws lwm zaj dab neeg.
Nyeem cov xov xwm tshiab nyiaj txiag thiab lag luam los ntawm Yahoo Finance
Rub tawm Yahoo Nyiaj Txiag app rau Kua or Android
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Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/great-moderation-over-new-stock-market-blackrock-150020537.html