Cov nqi tsev yuav tsev tau nce tsis tu ncua nyob rau hauv lub xyoo dhau los, thiab nrog Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve qhov kev nce qib tshiab, tej zaum yuav tsis muaj kev poob qis sai sai, raws li ib tus kws tshawb fawb nyiaj txiag.
Qhov nce ntawm cov paj laum "txhais tau tias cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj yuav nce ntxiv thiab peb yuav pom qee qhov thim rov qab hauv kev lag luam vaj tsev," Dana Peterson, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ntawm Pawg Sib Tham, tau hais rau Yahoo Finance Live (video saum toj no ). "Thiab qhov ntawd yog qhov ua haujlwm ntawm, yog, tus nqi siab heev uas cuam tshuam rau kev them taus, tab sis kuj nce paj paj."
Lub Pub nce cov paj laum los ntawm 75 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus rau hnub Wednesday, thiab lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab tau hais tias nws "cia siab tias qhov kev nce ntxiv hauv lub hom phiaj yuav tsim nyog."
Cov nqi tsev, lub sijhawm no, yog nyob ntawm 5.4%, raws li Freddie Mac, uas yog ntau tshaj li ob feem pua cov ntsiab lus siab dua li qhov pib ntawm 2022.
Fed teeb tsa cov nqi uas cov tsev txhab nyiaj siv qiv nyiaj los ntawm lub tsev txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab. Raws li Fed cov paj laum nce siab dua, nws cuam tshuam ncaj qha rau cov nqi tsev vim tias cov qiv nyiaj kuj tseem nce cov paj paj ntawm cov nyiaj qiv rau cov neeg yuav tsev.
Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index poob rau 64.8 rau lub hli ntawm Lub Rau Hli, uas yog nws qhov kev nyeem ntawv qis tshaj thib ob hauv kaum xyoo. Raws li kev tshawb fawb, tsuas yog 20% ntawm cov neeg siv khoom xav tias nws yog lub sijhawm zoo los yuav tsev tam sim no.
Peterson tau hais tias "Thaum peb saib peb tus kheej kev ntseeg siab, tib neeg hais tias lawv tau thim rov qab rau lawv qhov kev cia siab rau kev yuav tsev," Peterson hais.
Fed qhov kev txav mus tom ntej yuav txhais li cas
Rau cov neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev, cov paj laum ntau dua feem ntau txo lawv lub zog yuav khoom.
Kev muag khoom hauv tsev - cov tsev nyob rau hauv daim ntawv cog lus yuav muag - yog qhov taw qhia ntawm kev noj qab haus huv ntawm lub tsev lag luam. Tus lej ntawd plunged 20% lub hli dhau los piv rau Lub Rau Hli 2021.
Cov tswv tsev uas twb muaj lawm nrog cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj yuav tsis xav tias muaj kev cuam tshuam zoo ib yam li cov neeg yuav khoom thiab cov muag khoom tshwj tsis yog lawv tab tom txiav txim siab muag lawv lub tsev nyob rau yav tom ntej. Cov tswv tsev nrog cov nqi tsev kho mob, txawm li cas los xij, yuav pom lawv cov paj laum nce mus tom ntej.
Raws li Peterson, qhov ntawd yog qhov uas Fed xav pom nyob rau hauv ib puag ncig kev nce nqi tam sim no: Ib qho "kev xav tau hauv tsev," nrog vaj tse yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm nws.
Kev thov rau tsev tau nce siab hauv ob xyoos dhau los. Thaum lub sij hawm qhov siab ntawm tus mob coronavirus pandemic, cov paj laum poob rau hauv keeb kwm qis. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, ntau tus neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev tau tsiv tawm ntawm cov nroog loj nyob rau hauv kev nyiam ntawm suburbs thiab cov nroog me.
"Tom qab ntawd koj muaj ntau txhiab xyoo," Peterson hais. "Lawv tag nrho muaj hnub nyoog 40 xyoo, thiab lawv muaj tsev neeg, thiab lawv tab tom nrhiav kev hloov kho tshiab tom ntej hauv vaj tsev. Txhua yam ntawm cov no yog qhov xav tau uas Fed xav ua kom yuam kev. "
Peterson cia siab tias Fed tseem tsis tau ua tiav nrog cov paj laum, hais tias lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv tuam txhab tseem tuaj yeem nkag mus rau "chaw txwv tsis pub," uas yuav yog tus nqi siab dua 3% thiab txawm tias ze rau 4% thaum ntxov 2023.
Peterson tau hais tias "Peb xav tias qhov kev nqis tes ua, qhov kev tawm tsam hnyav heev tiv thaiv kev nce nqi, yuav ua rau muaj kev lag luam poob qis," Peterson tau hais tias, "tej zaum pib qhov kev poob qis tiag tiag uas NBER yuav pom zoo yog ib qho, tej zaum yuav pib hauv peb lub hlis twg ntawm lub xyoo no."
Fed Chair Jerome Powell tau hais tias kev lag luam tseem tsis tau muaj nkag mus rau kev poob nyiaj txiag nyob rau hauv nws lub rooj sib tham xov xwm tsis ntev los no hnub Wednesday. Powell hais ntxiv tias "Muaj ntau qhov chaw hauv kev lag luam uas ua tau zoo,"
Ethan yog tus kws sau ntawv rau Yahoo Nyiaj Txiag.
Nyeem cov xov xwm tshiab nyiaj txiag thiab lag luam los ntawm Yahoo Finance
Rub tawm Yahoo Nyiaj Txiag app rau Kua or Android
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Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-rate-hike-mortgage-rates-economist-181430293.html