Faang yuav rov qab los

Nyob zoo sawv ntxov. Lub pob zoo rau cov khoom lag luam rau hnub Friday tom qab Jay Powell ua rau qee qhov tho txawv comments hais txog Federal Reserve yog cov ntaub ntawv-dependent. Kev lag luam, parched rau xov xwm zoo, lapped nws. Tab sis muaj feem yuav yog txhua tus yuav rov qab mus rau qhov tsaus ntuj sai sai. Tsis hnov ​​leej twg hu hauv qab tsis tau - tsuas yog ib nrab siab "tactical" yuav.

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Faangs value check-up

Txawm hais tias tag nrho cov kev ntxhov siab thiab kev puas tsuaj - hais txog yuav ua li cas tus nqi siab dua yuam cov khoom muaj nqis mus ntev, kev hloov pauv mus rau cov khoom muaj nqis, thiab cov thev naus laus zis loj npaum li cas mus txog qhov kawg ntawm nws qhov kev loj hlob siab - Faang cov khoom lag luam tseem ceeb heev. Cia peb saib seb lawv tau ua li cas xyoo no:

Tsis zoo! Puas yog lub sijhawm yuav khoom tsim?

Ob yam yuav tsum nco ntsoov thaum pib. Ua ntej, Faangs tam sim no technically Faamgs. Lub tuam txhab streaming tseem tseem tuaj yeem rov qab los, tab sis nws cov teeb meem tsis ntev los no tau ua pov thawj ib zaug thiab rau tag nrho - rau Unhedged, txawm li cas los xij - tias Netflix yog xov xwm tuam txhab, tsis yog lub tuam txhab tech, thiab tsis koom nrog tech tus dev loj. Microsoft lub multiyear rov tshwm sim raws li huab xam lub zog, ntawm qhov tod tes, qhia tau hais tias nws zoo kawg nkaus nyob hauv tsev ntawm plaub lub tuam txhab hluas.

Qhov thib ob, Unhedged tseem yog grouchily tsis kam lees tias Google tam sim no hu nws tus kheej Cov Ntawv thiab tias Facebook mus los ntawm Meta. Google tseem yog lub tuam txhab tshawb fawb tshaj tawm, Facebook tseem yog kev sib raug zoo. Peb tsis tau dag los ntawm inane rebranding.

Yog vim li cas Faangs tseem ceeb heev, thiab vim li cas peb thiaj li yuav tsum ceeb toom rau lub caij yuav luv nqi? Pib nrog, lawv sawv cev rau ib feem tsib ntawm S&P 500, nrog rau kev lag luam peev ntawm $ 7tn. Raws li lawv mus, kev ua lag luam yuav (feem ntau) mus. Tsis tas li ntawd, cov tuam txhab loj loj yuav tsum tuaj yeem siv lawv txoj haujlwm ua lag luam thiab cov peev txheej ntau los tiv thaiv lawv cov paj hauv lub sijhawm nyuaj xws li qhov peb tab tom zawm rau tam sim no.

Thiab txawm hais tias tag nrho cov tuam txhab thev naus laus zis tau hais dav dav, Faangs yog ib pawg neeg sib txawv ntawm cov tuam txhab. Microsoft thiab ib nrab ntawm Amazon (nyob ntawm seb koj hlais nws li cas) yog cov tuam txhab suav nrog cov lag luam. Lwm ib nrab ntawm Amazon yog lub ntiaj teb no (tab sis kuj nyob rau hauv tilted) e-retailer. Google yog ib tug heev cyclical search advertisement uas caters rau kev lag luam. Apple thiab Facebook yog cov tuam txhab siv thev naus laus zis thoob ntiaj teb, ib qho tsim nyob ib puag ncig cov khoom lag luam tseem ceeb, lwm qhov ntawm kev tshaj tawm tawm tsam qhov tsis muaj qhov tseem ceeb tab sis tseem muaj kev sib raug zoo.

Lawv tag nrho, nrog rau kev sib cav tshwj xeeb ntawm Amazon, muaj txiaj ntsig zoo heev. Lawv tsim nyiaj pub dawb ntau dua li lawv paub yuav ua li cas nrog. Qhov no txhais tau hais tias kev sib cav (ib canard nyob rau lub sijhawm zoo tshaj plaws) tias cov khoom lag luam thev naus laus zis yuav tsum poob qis vim tias cov nqi nce tsis tuaj yeem siv rau Faangs. Lawv yuav tau txais txiaj ntsig ntau npaum li lawv cov txiaj ntsig los ntawm cov nyiaj tau los ze li cov tuam txhab roj, cov neeg siv khoom lag luam thiab cov tsev txhab nyiaj uas sau cov nqi lag luam.

Saib ntawm tsib pawg 'tsis ntev los no drawdowns, kev ntsuas thiab kev loj hlob tus nqi:

Rau kuv lub qhov muag, ob ntawm tsib uas tau poob feem ntau tseem zoo li kim tshaj plaws. Kev poob qis hauv kev loj hlob ntawm Amazon lub lag luam e-khoom muag yuav dhau los ua kev them rov qab ib ntus rau nws qhov kev loj hlob tsis txaus ntseeg thaum muaj kev sib kis, tab sis kuv tsis xav them nyiaj ntau dua 50 npaug los nrhiav pom. Facebook muaj tus nqi qis / nyiaj khwv tau los thiab tsim nyiaj ntau, ua rau nws zoo li cov khoom muaj nqis, tab sis lub khw puas xav kom muaj nuj nqis ntawm cov nyiaj ntsuab? Puas yog cov whippings txuas ntxiv mus txog thaum cov nyiaj tau los loj hlob (7 feem pua ​​​​hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg) txhim kho?

Ntawm peb lwm, koj puas xav ua tus tswv yog tias peb tab tom mus rau kev lag luam nyiaj txiag xyoo tom ntej? Google lub lag luam tseem ceeb yog lub voj voog loj heev. Apple's nyob ntawm qhov nrawm nrawm ntawm Tuam Tshoj rau ib feem tsib ntawm nws qhov muag. Microsoft txoj haujlwm muaj zog nrog cov neeg siv khoom lag luam, los ntawm qhov sib txawv, yuav txaus siab heev hauv kev poob qis.

Cov no tsuas yog generalities xwb, tau kawg. Kuv xav tias tag nrho cov ntsiab lus tuaj yeem suav tau los ntawm kev hais qhov no: cov no yog cov tuam txhab zoo kawg nkaus, thiab thaum lawv tseem tsis tau pheej yig, lawv yog ntuj raug txim ntau pheej yig dua li lawv tau, thiab qhov tseeb tias zeitgeist tam sim no los tiv thaiv tech. yuav tsum tsis txhob ua rau peb poob siab los ntawm kev saib xyuas lawv zoo li lub lag luam dais tam sim no tawm. Yuav muaj ib pliag los pounce.

Ntawm no yog qhov sib piv muaj txiaj ntsig. Lub Faangs, nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm kev ua lag luam, yog cov lej 1, 2, 3, 4 thiab 7 hauv S&P 500. Ntawm no yog cov lej 8, 9, 11, 12 thiab 14, uas tseem yuav txaus siab rau txhua qhov zoo ntawm kev ua lag luam loj heev:

Ntawm no yog lub tuam txhab kev noj qab haus huv sib txawv (hauv cov chaw kho mob, cov khoom siv kho mob, thiab cov khoom siv), lub tuam txhab pov hwm kev noj qab haus huv loj tshaj plaws, ib nrab ntawm kev them nyiaj duopoly, cov khw muag khoom muaj nqi loj, thiab cov khoom lag luam ntawm cov neeg siv khoom muaj zog staples hom (Pampers, Tampax, Gillette, thiab yog li ntawd). Nws yog pob tawb classic ntawm kev tiv thaiv - yang rau Faangs 'yin. Ib tug zoo acronym tsis qhia nws tus kheej, hmoov tsis (peb qhib rau cov lus qhia). 

Tus nqi / nyiaj khwv tau los ntawm ob pawg zoo sib xws, thiab thaum cov kev tiv thaiv kev loj hlob tsis ntev los no tau qis dua, sab nraum Visa, peb tuaj yeem pom kev sib koom ua ke hauv kev poob qis. Tsis tas li ntawd qhov qis dua ntawm kev tiv thaiv yog qhov txaus nyiam ("beta" yog qhov ntsuas ntawm qhov tsis sib xws ntawm kev lag luam dav, nrog "1" sawv cev rau kev lag luam volatility, 1.2 sawv cev 1.2 npaug ntawm kev lag luam volatility, thiab lwm yam). Txog tam sim no nyob rau hauv lub lag luam dais no, cov kev tiv thaiv tau ua tau zoo dua, dua li kev zam ntawm Visa (lub S & P tau tawm 16 feem pua ​​​​ntawm nws qhov siab).

(Koj tuaj yeem xav tias muaj dab tsi tshwm sim rau tus lej 5, 6, 10 thiab 13 hauv S&P's kev lag luam qeb duas. Lawv yog Tesla, Berkshire Hathaway, Nvidia, thiab Exxon. Lawv txhua tus muaj cov yam ntxwv tsis zoo uas ua rau qhov sib piv tsis zoo).

Ib qho kev sib tw rau cov neeg nyeem. Xyoo tom ntej, pob tawb twg yuav ua tau zoo dua, Faangs lossis tiv thaiv? Tus neeg pessimist hauv kuv xaiv cov kev tiv thaiv, tab sis tsuas yog dhau xyoo tom ntej los yog li ntawd. Qee lub sij hawm, thiab nws yuav sai dua li qhov koj xav, nws yuav yog lub sijhawm hloov mus rau cov tuam txhab thev naus laus zis loj uas tau tsav lub khw hauv 10 xyoo dhau los.

Nyob ntawm khw muag khoom bros, tuag los ntawm khw muag khoom bros

Lub sijhawm yooj yim nyiaj tau dhau mus, coj nrog nws lub sijhawm muag khoom lag luam. FT's Madison Darbyshire thiab Nicholas Megaw daim ntawv qhia:

Net cov khw muag khoom nkag tau tsuas yog $ 2.4bn lub hlis no txog Lub Tsib Hlis 10, piv rau $ 11bn hauv lub Plaub Hlis thiab $ 17bn hauv lub Peb Hlis, raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm JPMorgan.

Tus nqi ntawm qhov nruab nrab cov khw muag khoom lag luam cov peev txheej tau poob qis los ntawm 28 feem pua ​​​​los ntawm lub Kaum Ob Hlis Ntuj thaum lub Kaum Ob Hlis Ntuj vim tias cov khw muag khoom muaj peev xwm poob qis hauv kev poob qis, raws li Vanda Research. Tus kws kho mob cov ntaub ntawv pom tias cov kev xav hauv khw muag khoom yog "tsis tshua muaj siab".

Kev soj ntsuam ntawm OCC cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Jason Goepfert ntawm SentimenTrader qhia tias cov khw muag khoom kuj tau dhau los ua ib feem me me ntawm tag nrho cov kev xaiv. Cov kev xaiv me me ua lag luam [ntaus] ob xyoos qis ntawm 32 feem pua ​​[hauv lub Plaub Hlis].

Tau txais kev nplua nuj los ntawm kev yuav lub dip yog li 2021. Unsurprisingly, Robinhood thiab Coinbase, Tshuag thiab crypto brokers mus rau YOLO kawg ntawm cov khw muag khoom spectrum, tau saib dismal piv rau lawv ntau staid cov neeg sib tw (uas tsis tau ua li ntawd kub lawv tus kheej):

Ib feem ntawm kev sib cais qhia txog Coinbase thiab Robinhood sib koom ua ntej hauv kev lag luam frothy uas overestimated lawv txoj kev loj hlob. Tab sis ob lub tuam txhab tau nthuav dav heev rau cov neeg lag luam muag khoom yuav muaj kev paub txog kev poob loj. Robinhood txoj kev lag luam yog ntau nyob ntawm kev xaiv trading. Coinbase tau sim tawm mus rau cov tuam txhab crypto cov neeg siv khoom, tab sis txawm tias tseem, 83 feem pua ​​​​ntawm nws cov nyiaj tau los los ntawm cov khw muag khoom hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2022.

Cov no tsis yog cov tuam txhab tsis raug cai. Robinhood tab tom sim nrog cov yam ntxwv tshiab zoo li Tshuag qiv, ib tug cog lus kos npe rau nws yog sim innovate. Tab sis kev rov qab mus rau yav dhau los lub yeeb koob yuav nyuaj heev. (Ethan Wu)

Ib qho zoo nyeem

Hauv nws kab lus farewell rau FT, John Dizard, nrog cov yam ntxwv astringency, txwv private equity raws li ib pawg ntawm cov khoom vaj khoom tsev khaws khoom thiab cov nqi sau nqi. Nws muaj ib kis. Nyob zoo John!