Lub zog hloov pauv yuav hloov pauv Kev Lag Luam Mining.

Tab sis yuav ua li cas hloov pauv cov lag luam hlau tiv thaiv?

^{Sau los ntawm Robin Griffin, Anthony Knutson thiab Oliver Heathman hauv Wood Mackenzie cov hlau & pab pawg mining.}

Los ntawm 2050 lub zog hloov pauv tuaj yeem pom nickel (Ni) xav tau triple, tooj liab (Cu) xav tau ntau dua ob npaug, thiab kev thov rau Lithium tshuaj loj hlob 700%. Lub nra ntawm cov miners ntawm kev hloov pauv hlau yuav loj heev thiab kev lag luam yuav hloov pauv raws li cov tub ua lag luam sib tw kom xa cov hlau tsim nyog.

Rau cov khoom siv roj teeb tshwj xeeb yuav muaj kev cia siab rau cov nyiaj tso cia uas tseem tsis tau txhais. Lithium yog ib qho piv txwv tseem ceeb. Muaj ntau qhov tsis paub meej nyob ib puag ncig cov nqi ntawm kev rho tawm ntawm cov haujlwm Lithium paub, cia nyob ib leeg ntawm ntau lab tons ntawm Lithium xav tau los ntawm qhov tsis tau tshawb nrhiav, qee qhov yuav vam khom cov thev naus laus zis uas tsis tau sim. Ntxiv rau qhov yuav tshwm sim ntawm cov nqi carbon thoob ntiaj teb thiab koj tuaj yeem nkag siab tias vim li cas tus nqi mus sij hawm ntev rau Lithium thiab lwm yam kev hloov hluav taws xob hlau yog qhov kev sib cav hnyav.

Yog li cas peb yuav tsum xav txog cov nqi ntawm cov khoom siv thiab yog li tus nqi - hauv qhov loj dua, cov pa roj carbon tsis zoo rau kev lag luam yav tom ntej?

Cia peb lo nrog Lithium thiab pib los ntawm saib hnub no tus nqi nkhaus. Tam sim no marginal C1[1] nyiaj ntsuab tus nqi ntawm Lithium tshuaj ntau lawm (ntawm LCE refined[2] hauv paus) yog li US $ 5,000 / t rau brine, US $ 9,000 / t rau spodumene, thiab tshaj US $ 10,000 / t rau lepidolite - raws li cov nqi tsim khoom, thauj thiab kho cov concentrate.

Muab cov nqi tam sim no zaum ntawm US $ 60,000 / t LCE refined, nws tsim nyog nug seb cov nqi puas yog qhov qhia tau zoo ntawm cov nqi yav tom ntej. Tab sis Lithium yog ib qho ntawm ntau cov ntsiab lus hauv ntiaj teb, thiab nws kuj yog qhov tsim nyog los cia siab tias Lithium thaum kawg yuav coj zoo ib yam li tag nrho lwm cov hlau mined. Ntawd yog, kev ua lag luam yuav yog cyclical nrog cov nqi poob rov qab rau tus nqi nkhaus kev txhawb nqa qib ib ntus. Nws yog qhov zoo li qhov kev txhawb nqa ntawm tus nqi yuav dhau los ua ntau zaus thaum lub tsheb thiab daim phiaj khaws cia sector decarbonisation mus txog qhov loj hlob thiab kev xav tau kev loj hlob qeeb.

Tab sis dab tsi yuav tus nqi nkhaus zoo li ntawd, tshwj xeeb yog muab rau peb accelerated zog hloov scenario kwv yees qhov twg Lithium xav tau yuav yog 7 lab tonnes ib xyoos twg (Mtpa) los ntawm 2050, nce los ntawm 1 Mtpa hauv 2022. Peb cov kav dej tam sim no muaj kwv yees li 1.5 Mt ntawm lub peev xwm txhua xyoo, nrog rau qhov project C3[3] tus nqi nce mus txog US $ 15,000 / t LCE refined.

Nws tsis zoo li cov qauv nqi tam sim no yuav muaj kev ruaj ntseg, txawm tias kev lag luam sib txawv rov qab mus rau qhov sib npaug.

Ua ntej, qib qis qis hauv cov pob zeb hauv av raws li cov khoom siv qib siab dua uas twb muaj lawm tau muab rho tawm thiab cov kev lag luam tshiab tso cai rau kev ntsuam xyuas thiab kev txhim kho ntawm qib qis dua.

Qhov thib ob, qhov kev cia siab ntau dua ntawm cov peev txheej lepidolite yav tom ntej txhais tau hais tias ntau dua kev xav thiab cov nqi hloov pauv tshuaj. Cov txheej txheem complexity ntawm lepidolites ua rau feem ntau qis lithium cov ntsiab lus thiab ntau dua proportions ntawm impurities.

Thib peb, ntxiv rau cov khoom siv pob zeb tshiab, kev cia siab rau cov av nplaum thiab txawm tias cov dej hiav txwv zoo li, txhais tau hais tias kev siv cov thev naus laus zis los ntawm cov qib qis qis uas yuav coj nrog lawv ntxiv kev nyuaj thiab kev sib tw, ua rau muaj nqi ntau dua.

Nyob rau hauv luv luv, hom deposits uas nyob rau hauv lub plaub quartile ntawm tus nqi nkhaus tam sim no yuav nce lawv feem ntawm ntau lawm lub sij hawm.

Tsis tas li ntawd, kev sib tw rau kev ua haujlwm, khoom siv thiab cov khoom siv raw yuav pom cov peev thiab cov nqi opex txuas ntxiv mus, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog thaum kev thov kev loj hlob siab. Kev tsim kho thiab kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev ua haujlwm kuj tseem yuav nce ntxiv rau lub sijhawm, vim lithium tau los ntawm ntau qhov kev tso nyiaj hauv cov kev pheej hmoo siab dua. Cov nuj nqis kim dua thiab muaj vaj huam sib luag, thiab cov nqi cuam tshuam ntau dua yuav tsum tau cia siab.

Txawm hais tias muaj peev xwm rau kev txuag thev naus laus zis hauv lub sijhawm ntev, raws li peb paub txog cov haujlwm uas twb muaj lawm, nws nyuaj rau xav txog cov nqi txhawb siab nyob qis dua US $ 20,000 / t LCE Ua ntej kev txiav txim siab cov nqi carbon.

Cov txheej txheem carbon ntxiv rau qhov tsis paub tseeb ntawm cov nqi yav tom ntej

Lub advent ntawm carbon pricing muaj peev xwm ua kom tus nqi nce rau Lithium cov neeg tsim khoom. Lithium mining, concentrating thiab hloov dua siab tshiab yuav tsum muaj ntau lub zog. Qhov loj emission qhov chaw yog qhia los ntawm ore calcination thiab acid roasting thaum lub sij hawm refining ntawm ntxhia concentrates thiab extraction pumping thiab sau ntawm brines. Peb suav xyoo 2023 thoob ntiaj teb Scope 1 thiab 2 emissions intensities nruab nrab ntawm 2.5 txog 3.0 t CO₂e/t LCE refined rau brine deposits thiab 10 mus rau 12 CO₂e/t LCE ua kom zoo rau cov khoom siv spodumene. Cov nqi hluav taws xob tau muab los ntawm Wood Mackenzie qhov yuav los tom ntej Lithium emissions benchmarking tool module, xav tias yuav tshaj tawm thaum ntxov Q2 ntawm 2023.

Cov txheej txheem them nqi carbon yuav yog qhov tseeb ntawm lub neej rau yav tom ntej. Txawm hais tias lub tswv yim thoob ntiaj teb thaum kawg yeej qhib rau kev sib cav, tab sis feem ntau cov miners thiab cov txheej txheem yuav tsum tau decarbonise los yog them rau cov cai rau emit lub tsev cog khoom gases. Txhawm rau suav rau nws qhov kev cuam tshuam kev lag luam, peb tuaj yeem siv ntau cov nqi carbon rau peb cov ntaub ntawv nqi: hauv qhov piv txwv no, peb tau siv tus nqi thoob ntiaj teb ntawm US $ 88 / t, mus txog 2050 hauv peb cov ntaub ntawv hauv paus, US $ 133 / t hauv peb 2.0- degree scenario[4], thiab US $ 163 / t kom tau raws li 1.5-degree[5].

Thaum peb siv cov pa roj carbon monoxide no rau cov pa roj carbon monoxide unabated emissions ntawm lub ntiaj teb no Lithium kev khiav hauj lwm thiab tej yaam num nyob rau hauv 2025, piv txwv li, qhov hnyav nruab nrab C1 nyiaj ntsuab tus nqi ntawm US $ 5,700 / t LCE refined nce los ntawm US $ 600 / t, US $ 900 / t thiab US $ 1,100 / t sib. Nyob rau hauv tib lub ce thiab dhia mus rau hauv lithium deposit hom qhia marginal nqi nce ntawm tus nqi sib txawv, xav txog lawv cov sib txawv zog siv.

Yuav ua li cas carbon pricing txhais tau tias rau hlau?

Cov nqi qis dua feem ntau yuav txhais tau tias tus nqi siab dua ntawm qhov nruab nrab, thiab qhov no yuav muaj tseeb ntawm tag nrho cov khoom muag kom txog thaum decarbonisation ntawm cov khoom ncav cuag kev loj hlob, thaum cov txiaj ntsig ntawm cov nqi carbon yuav poob qis. Nyob rau lub sijhawm no, cov neeg tsiv teb tsaws ntxov tuaj yeem txaus siab rau qee qhov kev loj hlob raws li lawv txav mus rau tus nqi nkhaus.

Lub zog hloov pauv muaj lub neej yav tom ntej zoo rau txhua qhov kev hloov pauv hlau. Cov neeg muab khoom ntawm lithium, npib tsib xee thiab cobalt, tooj liab thiab txhuas yuav nyob rau hauv siab kom ua tau raws li qhov xav tau ntawm kev thauj mus los thiab lub zog hluav taws xob thaum decarbonising lawv tus kheej ua haujlwm. Cov nyiaj txiag thiab tsoomfwv tau ntsib kev nyuaj siab ib yam li cov neeg hloov pauv. Qee qhov reticence yog nkag siab tau muab cov cuab yeej technology thiab txoj cai tsis meej. Tab sis " hmoov zoo nyiam cov neeg siab tawv" yog ib lo lus zoo kawg nkaus haum rau cov neeg muab khoom lag luam uas txaus siab ua kom kuv txoj kev loj hlob thiab lawv lub hom phiaj decarbonisation. Raws li tus nqi curves loj hlob thiab steepen, cov miners thiab processors yuav tsum tau muab nqi zog los ntawm ntau dua margins.

Kawm paub ntau ntxiv los ntawm peb cov kws tshaj lij los ntawm kev mus koom Wood Mackenzie's Future Facing Commodities Forum ntawm 16 Lub Peb Hlis, sau npe tam sim no.

_{[1] Cov nqi nyiaj ntsuab ncaj qha thiab tsis suav nrog cov nuj nqis, txo nqi & rho tawm, txhawb nqa peev}

_{[2] Lithium carbonate sib npaug. Kev hloov pauv ntawm 6% Li concentrate rau 56.5% Li tshuaj}

_{[3] suav nrog C1 cov nqi nyiaj ntsuab ntxiv rau cov nuj nqis, kev poob qis & kev txiav tawm, kev txhawb nqa peev, kev lag luam overheard thiab paj paj}

_{[4] Wood Mackenzie's Accelerated Energy Transition 2.0-degree scenario qhia peb qhov kev pom ntawm lub xeev muaj peev xwm ntawm lub ntiaj teb uas txwv qhov nce hauv ntiaj teb kub txij li lub sijhawm ua ntej kev lag luam mus rau 2.0 ° C thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo pua no.}

_{[5] Wood Mackenzie's Accelerated Energy Transition 1.5-degree scenario qhia peb qhov kev pom ntawm lub xeev muaj peev xwm ntawm lub ntiaj teb uas txwv qhov nce hauv ntiaj teb kub txij li lub sijhawm ua ntej kev lag luam mus rau 1.5 ° C los ntawm qhov kawg ntawm lub xyoo pua no (Lub Ntiaj Teb net zero emissions los ntawm 2050 raws li AET1.5 scenario)}