Cov khoom siv hluav taws xob thiab vaj tsev muaj feem cuam tshuam los ntawm qhov kawg ntawm cov nyiaj yooj yim, tab sis cov ntawv txheeb xyuas kev noj qab haus huv hauv tsev yuav tsum txhawb nqa cov neeg siv khoom lag luam, hais tias cov kws tshaj lij ntawm Evercore ISI.
Kev nce nyiaj thoob ntiaj teb "tau yuam Fed thiab cov tuam txhab nyiaj hauv ntiaj teb kom nce qib ntawm cov ntaub ntawv ceev," Evercore's equity thiab derivatives lub tswv yim pab pawg, coj los ntawm Julian Emanuel, tau hais nyob rau hauv ib daim ntawv uas luam tawm nyob rau lub asthiv.
Kev nrawm nrawm ntawm kev nce nqi thiab siab dua cov nyiaj hauv tuam txhab nyiaj hauv tuam txhab txoj cai tau ua rau cov nqi qiv nyiaj thiab yuam kom cov nyiaj tau los.
"Qhov kawg ntawm 40-xyoo daim ntawv cog lus bull market thiab ua rau muaj kev nce nqi qiv nyiaj ua rau muaj kev pheej hmoo rau cov neeg siv dag zog uas tau loj hlob zoo rau cov nuj nqis qis," hais tias cov kws tshaj lij.
Qhov no tej zaum yuav muaj teeb meem tshwj xeeb rau cov sectors uas nyiam nqa cov nuj nqis ntau dua, tseem hu ua kev siv nyiaj ntau heev.
"Raws li cov nqi tau nce, cov txiaj ntsig kev lag luam tam sim no zoo dua cov nqi daim coupon tam sim no, qhia cov tuam txhab uas vam khom ntau rau cov nuj nqis zoo li yuav pom kev nce qib hauv lawv cov txiaj ntsig zoo."
Cov lag luam feem ntau muaj kev pheej hmoo los ntawm qhov xwm txheej no - dab tsi Evercore dubs "Ntiaj Teb Tshaj Tawm" - yog cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, vaj tse thiab kev sib txuas lus, vim tias lawv "tam sim no khaws cov txiaj ntsig siab tshaj plaws thiab qis tshaj EBITDA kev pab them nqi uas tuaj yeem ua rau poob qis rau EPS yog tias cov nqi tseem nyob ntev dua. ”
Cov kev lag luam kuj muaj kev tiv thaiv ntau dua rau cov paj laum ntau dua - "Cov Nqi Them Nqi" - yog cov ntaub ntawv thev naus laus zis, lub zog thiab kev kho mob.
Evercore tseem sau tseg tias cov neeg siv khoom txiav txim siab thiab cov neeg siv khoom lag luam staple ntsib teeb meem los ntawm cov paj laum ntau dua vim tias lawv muaj feem ntau ntawm cov nuj nqis luv luv uas yuav xav tau nyiaj rov qab sai sai.
Txawm li cas los xij, cov haujlwm no yuav tau txais kev txhawb nqa los ntawm kev siv nyiaj ntawm cov tsev neeg ua kis las uas muaj txiaj ntsig zoo.
"[H] tsev neeg tau nyob ruaj khov los ntawm kev nce nqi paj. Deleveraging txij li thaum GFC [kev kub ntxhov nyiaj txiag thoob ntiaj teb] xav tias yuav txo qis tsev neeg cov paj laum rhiab heev. Daim ntawv nyiaj tshuav tau txhim kho thoob plaws yuav luag txhua qhov nyiaj tau los, ”Evercore hais.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-end-of-easy-money-is-bad-news-for-these-stock-sectors-says-evercore-isi-3ffc5d85?siteid=yhoof2&yptr= yahoo
Qhov kawg ntawm cov nyiaj yooj yim yog xov xwm phem rau cov khoom lag luam no, hais tias Evercore ISI
Cov khoom siv hluav taws xob thiab vaj tsev muaj feem cuam tshuam los ntawm qhov kawg ntawm cov nyiaj yooj yim, tab sis cov ntawv txheeb xyuas kev noj qab haus huv hauv tsev yuav tsum txhawb nqa cov neeg siv khoom lag luam, hais tias cov kws tshaj lij ntawm Evercore ISI.
Kev nce nyiaj thoob ntiaj teb "tau yuam Fed thiab cov tuam txhab nyiaj hauv ntiaj teb kom nce qib ntawm cov ntaub ntawv ceev," Evercore's equity thiab derivatives lub tswv yim pab pawg, coj los ntawm Julian Emanuel, tau hais nyob rau hauv ib daim ntawv uas luam tawm nyob rau lub asthiv.
Kev nrawm nrawm ntawm kev nce nqi thiab siab dua cov nyiaj hauv tuam txhab nyiaj hauv tuam txhab txoj cai tau ua rau cov nqi qiv nyiaj thiab yuam kom cov nyiaj tau los.
"Qhov kawg ntawm 40-xyoo daim ntawv cog lus bull market thiab ua rau muaj kev nce nqi qiv nyiaj ua rau muaj kev pheej hmoo rau cov neeg siv dag zog uas tau loj hlob zoo rau cov nuj nqis qis," hais tias cov kws tshaj lij.
Qhov no tej zaum yuav muaj teeb meem tshwj xeeb rau cov sectors uas nyiam nqa cov nuj nqis ntau dua, tseem hu ua kev siv nyiaj ntau heev.
"Raws li cov nqi tau nce, cov txiaj ntsig kev lag luam tam sim no zoo dua cov nqi daim coupon tam sim no, qhia cov tuam txhab uas vam khom ntau rau cov nuj nqis zoo li yuav pom kev nce qib hauv lawv cov txiaj ntsig zoo."
Cov lag luam feem ntau muaj kev pheej hmoo los ntawm qhov xwm txheej no - dab tsi Evercore dubs "Ntiaj Teb Tshaj Tawm" - yog cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, vaj tse thiab kev sib txuas lus, vim tias lawv "tam sim no khaws cov txiaj ntsig siab tshaj plaws thiab qis tshaj EBITDA kev pab them nqi uas tuaj yeem ua rau poob qis rau EPS yog tias cov nqi tseem nyob ntev dua. ”
Source: Evercore ISI
Cov kev lag luam kuj muaj kev tiv thaiv ntau dua rau cov paj laum ntau dua - "Cov Nqi Them Nqi" - yog cov ntaub ntawv thev naus laus zis, lub zog thiab kev kho mob.
Source: Evercore ISI
Evercore tseem sau tseg tias cov neeg siv khoom txiav txim siab thiab cov neeg siv khoom lag luam staple ntsib teeb meem los ntawm cov paj laum ntau dua vim tias lawv muaj feem ntau ntawm cov nuj nqis luv luv uas yuav xav tau nyiaj rov qab sai sai.
Source: Evercore ISI
Txawm li cas los xij, cov haujlwm no yuav tau txais kev txhawb nqa los ntawm kev siv nyiaj ntawm cov tsev neeg ua kis las uas muaj txiaj ntsig zoo.
"[H] tsev neeg tau nyob ruaj khov los ntawm kev nce nqi paj. Deleveraging txij li thaum GFC [kev kub ntxhov nyiaj txiag thoob ntiaj teb] xav tias yuav txo qis tsev neeg cov paj laum rhiab heev. Daim ntawv nyiaj tshuav tau txhim kho thoob plaws yuav luag txhua qhov nyiaj tau los, ”Evercore hais.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-end-of-easy-money-is-bad-news-for-these-stock-sectors-says-evercore-isi-3ffc5d85?siteid=yhoof2&yptr= yahoo