Dow 'exits' dais lag luam thaj chaw. Ntawm no yog vim li cas cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum coj nws nrog cov nplej ntsev

Cov Dow
DJIA,
+ 2.18%
ua tiav hnub Wednesday qhov kev sib tham ntawm nws qhov siab tshaj plaws kaw txij li lub Plaub Hlis 21, raws li Dow Jones Market Data. Ua tsaug rau cov txiaj ntsig tau txhawb nqa los ntawm Fed Thawj Tswj Hwm Jerome Powell cov lus hais ntawm Brookings Institution, qhov txiaj ntsig xiav-chip tam sim no tau nce 20.4% los ntawm nws lub Cuaj Hlis 30 kaw qis, txhais tau tias nws tau tawm ntawm kev lag luam hauv khw. Nws tsuas yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev ncaj ncees index ua li ntawd.

Feem ntau, thaum ib qho kev taw qhia lossis cov khoom muaj nqis tau nce 20% lossis ntau dua ntawm kev lag luam tsis ntev los no, nws tau hais tias muaj kev tawm tswv yim tawm ntawm dais-kev lag luam thaj chaw.

Thoob plaws hauv keeb kwm ntawm kev lag luam nyiaj txiag, muaj ntau yam piv txwv uas cov khoom lag luam tau sib sau ua ke thaum lub lag luam dais, tsuas yog thaum kawg tig qis dua thiab tshem tawm tag nrho cov txiaj ntsig.

Thaum lub sij hawm rub tawm cov lag luam poob qis, cov khoom lag luam feem ntau rips siab dua, tsuas yog pom lawv cov txiaj ntsig fizzle dua thiab dua. Qhov no twb tau tshwm sim ntau dua peb zaug txij li thaum pib ntawm 2022, suav nrog cov kev tawm tsam tseem ceeb uas tau tshwm sim hauv lub Peb Hlis, thaum Lub Xya Hli thiab Lub Yim Hli, thiab dua txij li nruab nrab Lub Kaum Hli, raws li FactSet cov ntaub ntawv.

Saib ntxiv rov qab, keeb kwm kev ua lag luam nyob rau ob peb lub xyoo dhau los yog rov qab nrog cov piv txwv zoo sib xws, raws li MarketWatch tau tshaj tawm.

Tom qab qhov tawg ntawm dot-com npuas, Nasdaq Composite tau dhau los ntawm tsawg kawg yog xya qhov kev sib tw ntawm 20% lossis ntau dua ua ntej mus txog nws qhov kawg lub voj voog qis hauv 2002.

Cov kws tshaj lij kev lag luam tau ceev faj tshwj xeeb yog xav tias Fed tseem nce tus nqi paj, txawm hais tias Fed Thawj Tswj Hwm Jerome Powell tau hais rau hnub Wednesday tias Fed cov neeg ua haujlwm laus yuav zoo li xaiv rau kev taug kev me me nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis tom qab plaub sib law liag 75 lub hauv paus taw tes - cov lus hais uas tau pab txhawb nqa cov khoom lag luam dav. - kev lag luam surge.

Qhov no thaum kawg underscores ib qho yooj yim point: nws yog ib qho nyuaj rau hais tias thaum lub lag luam dais tau tas lawm, txij li thaum pib ntawm lub lag luam bull tshiab feem ntau tsuas yog crystal-clear nyob rau hauv retrospect - tsis zoo li qhov kev sib tw ntawm kev txiav txim siab pib ntawm kev lag luam.

Ib txoj cai zoo sib xws muaj tseeb rau kev lag luam. Thaum lub quarter sib law liag ntawm kev cog lus tag nrho cov khoom lag luam hauv tebchaws feem ntau tau piav qhia tias yog "kev lag luam" kev lag luam, qhov no tsis yog cov txheej txheem siv los ntawm National Bureau of Economic Research thaum txiav txim siab seb kev lag luam hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas puas yog kev lag luam poob qis los yog tsis.

Raws li Dow tau them nyiaj ntau dua lub lim tiam dhau los, ib tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam UBS tau ceeb toom tias cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum cia siab tias yuav muaj kev hloov pauv ntau dua.

"Peb tseem tsis ntseeg tias qhov kev tawm tsam tsis ntev los no yog qhov pib ntawm kev ua lag luam tshiab. Qhov tseem ceeb ntawm Fed zoo li yuav nyob twj ywm rau hauv kev tawm tsam kev nce nqi, tab tom tos kom muaj qhov sib npaug ntawm cov nqi muag muag thiab cov ntaub ntawv ua haujlwm. Tawm tsam qhov keeb kwm yav dhau los no, peb pom zoo ntxiv rau kev tiv thaiv cov cuab tam hauv ob qho tib si kev lag luam thiab cov nyiaj tau los tas li, "said Mark Haefele, tus thawj coj peev ntawm UBS Global Wealth Management.

Blue-chip ntsuas tau ua tiav hnub Wednesday kev sib tham ntawm 34,589.77, tau nce 737.24 cov ntsiab lus, lossis 2.2%. S&P 500
SPX,
+ 3.09%
thiab Nasdaq
COMP,
+ 4.41%
kuj tau sau tseg muaj zog nce ntawm 3.1% thiab 4.4%. Nws yog qhov kev sib tham zoo tshaj plaws rau tag nrho peb qhov ntsuas hauv kwv yees li peb lub lis piam.