Cov Chips poob…Lam Thiab Micron Yog Yuav

Raws li cov lus hais mus, thaum Wall Street tuav kev muag khoom, tsis muaj leej twg tshwm sim. Tu siab, raws li kev sib npaug tau qis dua nyob rau nruab nrab Lub Rau Hli, cov neeg ntawm Main Street xav tsis muaj feem ntawm lawv. Tseeb tiag, American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) pom nws Bull-Bear Sentiment gauge tilted hnyav rau kev xav tsis zoo nyob rau lub Rau Hli 22, 2022, nrog rau lub lim tiam ntawd Bearish heev trailing tsuas yog nyeem nyob rau hauv peb lub hlis twg ntawm 1990 (raws li Gulf War yog brewing) thiab Lub Peb Hlis 5, 2009, ib yam li cov khoom lag luam tau muab tso rau hauv qab loj thaum lub sij hawm muaj teeb meem nyiaj txiag loj.

'Twas puas yog li ntawd, Al Frank, tus tsim ntawm Cov Neeg Txawj Ntse Vaj Ntxwv, nyiam hais, raws li lub sij hawm thiab dua traders xaus li zigging thaum lawv yuav tsum tau zagged. Nws yog qhov tsis yooj yim sua kom ua tiav cov gyrations ntawm kev ua lag luam tsis txaus ntseeg, vim tias feem ntau ntawm cov tub ua lag luam feem ntau xav zoo dua txog qhov kev cia siab rau cov khoom lag luam tom qab lawv tau nce nqi thiab phem dua tom qab lawv tau ploj mus.

Tsis yog qhov xav tsis thoob, qhov kev xav no Yuav Siab, Muag Tsawg qhov teeb meem yog vim li cas ntau tus neeg raug kev txom nyem nruab nrab rau qhov tsis zoo rov qab los ntawm kev ncaj ncees. Hloov chaw, kuv xav tias cov uas qhia kuv lub sijhawm ntev ntev yuav tsum tau ua rau cov khoom lag luam ntawm cov tuam txhab zoo thaum lawv ua rau cov teeb meem luv luv.

Piv txwv li, cov indexes dav muaj me ntsis los qhia rau 2022, raws li S&P 500 tseem tawm ntau dua 10% xyoo-rau-hnub, Nasdaq composite index yog nqis ntau dua 15% thiab Philadelphia Tshuag Txauv Semiconductor Performance index tseem ntxiv. hauv liab. Kev ntshai ntawm kev xav tau qeeb qeeb thiab cov khoom lag luam ntau dhau ntawm cov khoom lag luam semiconductors tau ua rau muaj kev poob qis hauv pawg tom kawg ntawm cov khoom lag luam, txawm tias Thawj Tswj Hwm Biden tau kos npe rau CHIPS thiab Science Act ntawm 2022 lub lim tiam dhau los, qhia tau tias "txhawb [ing] American semiconductor kev tshawb fawb, kev loj hlob, thiab ntau lawm.” Thiab cov lus ceeb toom tsis ntev los no los ntawm CEOs ntawm cov lag luam tseem ceeb xws li Nvidia, Cov Khoom Siv SivAMAT
thiab Analog DevicesNpe
tau ntxiv roj rau hluav taws.

Muaj tseeb tiag, cov khoom lag luam hauv qhov chaw feem ntau tau ua rau muaj kev sib tw, tab sis cov chips yog nyob rau hauv txhua yam niaj hnub no, thiab rau cov neeg uas tuaj yeem pom hom kev hloov pauv no ua ib qho kev hloov pauv tsis zoo, yav tom ntej tseem ci ntsa iab rau ntau lub tuam txhab thoob plaws lub semiconductor. tus nqi saw. Feem ntau tau txais ntau ntawm cov xovxwm yog cov tsim qauv ntawm cov khoom siv xws li Advanced Micro DevicesAMD
, Nvidia lossis QualcommQCOM
, tab sis tsawg dua glamorous tuam txhab uas muag zoo li cov neeg tsim cov chips siv nyob rau hauv lub cim xeeb thiab cia khoom kuj yog positioned kom tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm secular tiam sis xws li kev txawj ntse txawj ntse (AI) thiab cov ntawv thov neeg rau zaub mov tshiab, uas muaj cov cuab yeej tseem ceeb hauv kev suav lub zog thiab kev xav tau cia.

CEO ntawm Micron TechnologyMU
, Sanjay Mehrotra tsis ntev los no tau hais tias "kev nthuav dav ntawm cov neeg siv khoom lag luam hloov kho" tau ua rau lub tuam txhab "cia siab tias yuav txo qis kev lag luam me ntsis xav tau kev loj hlob rau DRAM thiab NAND" (ob hom khoom tseem ceeb), uas yuav tsim kom muaj "kev lag luam nyuaj hauv kev lag luam nyiaj txiag Q4 2022. thiab nyiaj txiag Q1 2023. " Tab sis nws tsuas yog lub hli dhau los uas Mr. Mehrotra tau taw qhia rau AI, kev siv huab tsis tu ncua, tsheb hluav taws xob (EVs) thiab kev sib txuas thoob plaws uas muaj los ntawm 5G raws li "kev xav tau muaj zog ntawm cov neeg tsav tsheb, ua rau lub cim xeeb thiab kev lag luam khaws cia kom tshaj qhov kev lag luam semiconductor dav dua. ” Nws hais ntxiv tias "Micron cov khoom lag luam tau dhau los ua qhov muaj zog dua, thiab peb tau tsim cov khoom lag luam hauv ntau lub khw muag khoom zoo nkauj."

Theprudents speculatorInflation 101B

Qhov kev txo qis ntawm qhov kev thov nyob ze yuav cuam tshuam rau Lam Kev Tshawb FawbLRCX
, cov chaw tsim khoom thiab tsim cov khoom siv hluav taws xob semiconductor siv los ua kev sib xyaw ua ke. Qhov hnyav hnyav rau cov tuam txhab nco, ob peb xyoos dhau los tau zoo heev rau Lam, uas tsuas yog ib lub hlis twg dhau los tau tsim cov nyiaj tau los siab tshaj plaws hauv lub tuam txhab keeb kwm thiab $ 8.83 ntawm EPS, crushing kev cia siab ntawm $ 7.26. Lam cov neeg siv khoom suav nrog Micron, tab sis kuj yog cov thawj coj tsim chip zoo li Samsung thiab Taiwan Semiconductor.

Ib qho 33% caij mus rau sab qab teb zoo li cov shares ntawm MU lossis LRCX tau coj xyoo no yeej tsis lom zem, tab sis cov khoom lag luam nce thiab nqis tsis txawv teb chaws rau pawg tswj hwm ntawm ob lub tuam txhab. Ob lub tuam txhab tuav cov ntaub ntawv sib npaug nrog cov nyiaj ntsuab ntau, ua rau lawv qhov sib npaug ntawm P / E ntau (nruab nrab ntawm 12X thiab 13X NTM EPS) txaus nyiam thaum cov cuab yeej nce siab yuav tsum tau ua kom muaj roj thov kom deb li deb ntawm qhov muag pom.

Kuv yuav khav theeb thaum lwm tus ntshai thaum nws los txog Micron thiab Lam Tshawb Fawb.