'Tus qauv capitulation rau biotech yog Qeb 5 cua daj cua dub, tib yam li lub zog hauv xyoo 2020' - vim li cas cov neeg sib cav hais tias kev lag luam yog kev yuav

Qhov ntawd zoo kawg li. Qhov ntawd 25% yog qhov siab tshaj plaws hauv 15 xyoo - siab dua txawm tias thaum lub sijhawm ua lag luam ntev ntev ntawm kev kub ntxhov nyiaj txiag xyoo 2008.

Tom qab ntawd, 18% pauv hauv qab nyiaj ntsuab. Los ntawm 2010 txog 2020, tus lej tau nce ntawm 3% thiab 11%, raws li Yee thiab nws pab neeg. Nws tau hais txog cov tuam txhab me me thiab nruab nrab (smidcap) cov tuam txhab, cov lag luam muaj peev txheej tsawg dua $ 5 nphom. Cov no yog cov uas nyiam tsis muaj nyiaj khwv tau los thiab muaj cov kev kho mob thaum ntxov hauv kev sim.

"Qhov no yog qhov kev poob qis tshaj plaws uas peb tau pom hauv peb txoj haujlwm," hais tias biotech kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas Charmaine Chan nrog Cambiar Opportunity Fund
CAUM,
+ 0.04%.
"Tsis muaj leej twg pom dab tsi phem dua tshwj tsis yog lawv tau ua qhov no rau ntau dua 20 xyoo."

Rau contrarians, hom teeb liab heev no qhia tsuas yog ib yam. Lub sector yog kev yuav khoom. Txawm hais tias nws nyuaj rau nrhiav tau cov kws tshaj lij biotech uas yog bullish ntawm pab pawg (txawm Yee yog ceev faj), kuv tsis yog tib tus saib qhov no yog qhov tsis sib xws.

Qeb 5 cua daj cua dub hauv biotech

Tus kws tshuaj ntsuam macro Larry McDonald ntawm The Bear Traps tsab ntawv ceeb toom muaj qhov zoo sib xws. Txhawm rau pom cov teeb meem tsis sib haum xeeb, McDonald taug qab ib qho kev sau ntawm cov cim cim uas nws tau tsim thaum muaj kev kub ntxhov xyoo 2008. Lawv qhia nws thaum ib qho kev saib tsis taus uas nws tsim nyog yuav, ntawm qhov tsis sib xws. Nws yog qhov ntsuas "ntshav hauv txoj kev", kom qiv los ntawm cov qub Wall Street cov lus hais tias peb yuav tsum yuav cov khoom lag luam thaum muaj ntshav hauv txoj kev. Nws capitulation gauge lem ob peb technical signals, thiab lwm yam.

"Tus qauv capitulation rau biotech yog Qeb 5 cua daj cua dub, tib yam li lub zog hauv xyoo 2020," McDonald hais. "Qhov kev pheej hmoo-khoom plig yog qhov zoo heev, yam tsawg kawg rau kev sib tw countertrend."

Saib seb yuav ua li cas SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production exchange-trading fund
XOP,
+ 0.60%
yog nce 170% los ntawm nws qhov nruab nrab xyoo 2020.

McDonald qhia SPDR S&P Biotech
XWB,
+ 1.34%
thiab iShares Biotechnology
IB,
+ 0.50%
ETFs. Kuv hais rau 20 tus neeg cov khoom lag luam hauv qab no nrog kev pab los ntawm Yee thiab Chan. McDonald xav tias XBI tuaj yeem nce 83% txog $ 30 hauv kev sib tw luv luv, thiab tej zaum yuav nce 90% mus rau $ 50 lossis ntau dua ib xyoos txij li tam sim no. Cov hom phiaj yog 100- thiab XNUMX-hnub txav nruab nrab.

Cov kws paub txog biotech tsis pom zoo

Cov neeg uas paub qhov chaw zoo dua kuv tus kheej thiab McDonald tsis nyob hauv nkoj. Yee, uas tau ceev faj txij li lub caij ntuj sov dhau los ua ntej qhov kev poob qis, xav tias biotech yuav nyob twj ywm rau xyoo. "Nws yuav siv sijhawm ntau los kho cov qhov txhab no," nws hais.

Tsis muaj ib yam dab tsi tawg txog qhov kev tshawb fawb hauv qab tau tsim hauv biotech, lossis kev cia siab rau kev tsim kho tshiab, nws hais. Nws tsuas yog tias cov khoom lag luam tuaj yeem pheej yig tau ntev dua li qhov koj xav tau. "Vim li cas ib tug yuav sawv tag kis thiab hais tias 'Kuv yuav tsum tau yuav tag nrho cov smidcap biotech stocks nqis 50%?' Nws yog ib txwm nyuaj los ua thawj tus hauv hav dej. "

Cambiar's Chan pom zoo tias "Kuv xav tias nws ntxov me ntsis dhau los ua bullish. "Koj xav tau catalysts los hloov cov lus piav qhia."

Nrhiav kev nce qib ntawm cov pem hauv ntej no.

1. Ntau biotech mergers thiab acquisitions

Chan hais tias "M&A yuav hloov cov lus piav qhia, tab sis nws tsis tshwm sim," Chan hais.

Txawm li cas los xij, muaj qhov zoo rau nws. "Pharma loj muaj nyiaj ntau heev lawv tuaj yeem yuav tag nrho smidcap ntug," Yee sau tseg. Tam sim no lawv cov nyiaj ntsuab sib npaug tau nce mus rau ntau dua $ 300 nphom.

McDonald hais tias "CFOs ntawm cov chaw muag tshuaj loj tab tom saib qhov kev tua neeg no, thiab lawv tsuas yog yaim lawv cov chops," McDonald hais. "Tej zaum koj yuav pom ntau qhov kev lag luam hauv qab no."

Yee cia siab tias M&A yuav maj mam nce, tab sis nws tsis tshua pom zoo dua McDonald. "M&A nyuaj thaum kev lag luam poob sai," nws hais.

2. FDA tau txais nws txoj cai ua ke

Los ntawm tus me nyuam mos mis tsis txaus mus rau kev pom zoo tshuaj qeeb thiab cov teeb meem sib xyaw ua ke ntawm txoj kev pom zoo, Food & Drug Administration tau ua qhov teeb meem loj thiab tsis meej pem rau txhua tus los ntawm cov niam txiv mus rau biotech investor. Chan hais tias "FDA tau dhau los ua qhov tsis tuaj yeem xav txog,"

OK, nws tau muaj kev cuam tshuam ntawm kev sib kis thiab yuav tsum tau tsom mus rau cov tshuaj tiv thaiv thiab kev kho mob. Tab sis tam sim no nrog COVID-19 poob qis (cia siab), tej zaum FDA tuaj yeem tsom mus rau kev pom zoo tshuaj.

3. Kev ua lag luam dav dav txhim kho

Cov tub ua lag luam tseem ceeb ntshai txog kev nce nqi thiab kev lag luam poob qis, vim tias lawv paub tias Fed tsis tuaj yeem los cawm nrog cov lus pov thawj "Fed tso" (kev txhawb nqa los tawm tsam cov lag luam poob qis).

Txij li thaum Fed tau coj lub log kev cob qhia tawm ntawm cov tub ua lag luam, lawv yuav tsum xav txog kev nce nqi thiab GDP kev loj hlob ntawm lawv tus kheej. Txog tam sim no, lawv tab tom ua haujlwm tsis zoo txij li thaum Nws zoo nkaus li qhov tseeb kev nce nqi tau nce siab thiab peb yuav tsis mus rau hauv kev txom nyem. Vam tias, lawv tau txais txoj haujlwm sai sai.

Cov khoom lag luam xav txog ... lossis zam

Chan singles tawm UCB
UBJY,
-2.34%

UCB,
-1.85%,
ib lub tuam txhab Belgian biotech. Nws cov kev sib koom tau raug mob hnyav nyob rau nruab nrab lub Tsib Hlis thaum FDA dinged nws daim ntawv thov kev pom zoo ntawm nws txoj kev kho bimekizumab rau kev kho mob ntawm cov kab mob hu ua plaque psoriasis vim qee qhov teeb meem tshuaj xyuas.

Tam sim no nws yuav tsum rov thov dua, tab sis cov ntaub ntawv txhawb nqa bimekizumab zoo li suab. Nws twb tau pom zoo nyob hauv Europe, Nyiv, Canada thiab Australia.

Nws kuj nyiam qhov kev cia siab rau ob qho kev kho mob UCB hauv kev sim lig rau cov kab mob hauv lub paj hlwb: zilucoplan thiab rozanolixizumab. Cia siab tias yuav nyeem cov ntaub ntawv ntau ntxiv thiab cov ntawv thov kev pom zoo nyob rau ib nrab xyoo no, muaj peev xwm catalysts.

Yee singles tawm Vertex Pharmaceuticals
VRTX,
+ 1.23%,
Txoj hmoo Tsis zoo
FATE,
+ 3.13%
thiab Ventyx Biosciences
VTYX,
+ 2.84%.

Vertex tau tshaj tawm cov nyiaj tau los muaj zog rau nws txoj kev kho mob cystic fibrosis trikafta (nce 48% hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg txog $ 1.76 billion). Nws kuj tseem qhia tau tias muaj kev vam meej zoo ntawm kev kho cov kav dej rau cystic fibrosis, kab mob mob hlwb, kab mob raum, ntshav qab zib thiab mob. Nws cov khoom lag luam poob qis 14% los ntawm lub Plaub Hlis siab ntawm $ 292.75.

Fate Therapeutics Tshuag tau poob qis 77% txij thaum Lub Yim Hli, txawm tias tsis muaj kev txhim kho tsis zoo, Yee hais. Txoj hmoo tseem qhia txog kev txhim kho nws cov tshuaj tua kab mob hauv lub cev tiv thaiv kab mob qog noj ntshav. Txoj hmoo tsis tas yuav nce peev sai sai. Nws muaj kev koom tes nrog Johnson & Johnson
JNJ,
+ 1.75%
los tsim kho mob qog noj ntshav.

Ventyx Biosciences tsim kho cov kab mob inflammatory xws li psoriasis, mob caj dab, Crohn's kab mob thiab colitis. Nws cia siab tias cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb ntawm Phase I sim ntawm ob ntawm lawv nyob rau plaub lub hlis tom ntej.

Cov tuam txhab lag luam 'dawb'

Yee ceeb toom tawm tsam kev xav txog cov tuam txhab lag luam hauv qab cov nyiaj ntsuab yuav tau txais tsuas yog vim tias lawv cov kev tshawb fawb tuaj yeem tau txais kev yuav khoom dawb. "Lawv yuav raug kev txom nyem los ntawm cov xwm txheej tsis zoo," nws hais. Tab sis nws muaj kev yuav khoom ntawm Olema Pharmaceuticals
OLMA,
-1.74%,
uas muaj nyob ib ncig ntawm $7 ib feem ntawm cov nyiaj ntsuab piv rau tus nqi Tshuag tsis ntev los no ntawm $2.10, thiab LianBio
LIAN,
-1.20%
($ 3.76 hauv nyiaj ntsuab vs. $2.47 Tshuag nqi).

Olema tab tom ua cov kev tshawb fawb thaum ntxov ntawm kev kho mob cancer mis. LianBio pab cov neeg koom tes kawm thiab txhim kho lawv cov kev kho mob hauv Suav teb. Nws muaj kev pom zoo nrog Bristol-Myers Squibb
BMY,
+ 0.30%,
Piv txwv li, txhawm rau txhim kho kev kho mob plawv nyob ntawd hu ua mavacamten, pom zoo hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas Yee xav tias lub kaum sab xis Tuam Tshoj no ib leeg muaj nqis txog $ 13 ib feem rau LianBio. Nws koom tes nrog lwm lub tuam txhab los tsim kho kev mob, ua pa thiab qhov muag tsis pom kev.

"Peb txaus siab rau qhov kev xav yuav txuas ntxiv nyuaj rau Tuam Tshoj cov khoom lag luam, tab sis lub tuam txhab muaj nyiaj ntau los ua tiav ntawm cov raj xa dej thiab cov kev sim tsis tu ncua nrog rau cov khoom vaj khoom tsev mavacamten," Yee hais.

Nco ntsoov tias cov no yog me me sub-$ 300 lab cov tuam txhab lag luam uas tuaj yeem pheej hmoo heev hauv biotech.

Tshuaj tiv thaiv stocks

Niaj hnub
MRNA,
-4.97%,
Pfizer
PFE, cov
+ 3.59%
thiab Novavax
NWS,
-8.57%
yog txoj kev tawm ntawm qhov siab pom hauv qhov tuab ntawm kev sib kis. Tab sis Yee ceev faj tiv thaiv kom tsis txhob thab plaub rau lawv. Yog vim li cas: Nws zoo li tus kab mob kis thoob qhov txhia chaw, thiab cov neeg yuav tshuaj tiv thaiv loj thoob ntiaj teb tau xaiv tawm ntawm kev xaiv yuav khoom thiab ncua kev xa khoom mus.

Michael Brush yog tus sau xov xwm rau MarketWatch. Nws muaj VRTX thiab FATE thiab tau qhia VRTX, FATE, PFE, NVAX thiab OLMA hauv nws tsab ntawv xov xwm, Txhuam Txog ntawm Cov Khoom Loj. Ua raws li nws ntawm Twitter @mbrushstocks.