David Rosenberg hais tias kev ua lag luam bull nyob rau hauv cov khoom lag luam yuav tsis kav ntev, thiab kev lag luam poob zoo li paub tseeb.
Tus kws paub txog nyiaj txiag qub tub rog tau sau tseg tias kev thov tsis muaj haujlwm tsuas yog nce siab tshaj plaws txij thaum Lub Kaum Hli 2021.
Rosenberg tau taw qhia rau qee qhov ntsuas qhia pom tias cov khoom lag luam muaj txiaj ntsig ntau dhau thiab tau ua rau poob.
Kev ua lag luam cov khoom lag luam muaj zog yog qhov tsis muaj peev xwm, thiab Asmeskas kev lag luam tau lees paub tias yuav poob rau hauv kev lag luam, David Rosenberg tau ceeb toom.
S&P 500 tau nkag mus rau lub khw muag nyuj rau hnub Thursday, raws li nws tau nce 20% nce los ntawm nws lub Kaum Hlis qis. Lub caij no, cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj poob haujlwm tau tshaj tawm tib hnub tau pom tias thawj qhov kev thov nyiaj poob haujlwm tau nce mus rau 261,000 lub lim tiam dhau los, yog qib siab tshaj txij thaum Lub Kaum Hli 2021.
"Kev ua lag luam no tseem tsis muaj dab tsi ntau dua li lub sijhawm luv luv," tus kws tshawb fawb qub tub rog thiab Rosenberg Research Thawj Tswj Hwm tau hais nyob rau hauv ib qho kev ceeb toom thaum sawv ntxov.
Rosenberg tau hais txog qhov kev tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm cov khoom lag luam tseem ceeb thiab kev ua lag luam muag muag muag. Nws tau nug seb qhov kev ntsuas kev ncaj ncees tam sim no puas tsim nyog muab qhov kev lag luam tsaus nti.
"Koj tuaj yeem ntseeg cov xov xwm xov xwm lossis koj tuaj yeem ntseeg cov kev qhia ua ntej - uas qhia tias peb yeej muaj 99.15% txoj hauv kev ntawm NBER-txhais kev lag luam rov qab," nws hais. "Thiab yog tias qhov no tshwm sim, ces nws yog thawj zaug hauv keeb kwm sau tseg tias kev lag luam tseem ceeb tau xaus ua ntej qhov kev poob qis txawm tuaj txog."
Rosenberg tau hais tias kev siv nyiaj tseem ceeb hauv tsoomfwv xyoo tas los tuaj yeem cuam tshuam kev lag luam rov qab. Nws tau piav qhia txog kev txhawb nqa nyiaj txiag li "lub txiaj ntsim Energizer Bunny uas nyuam qhuav khaws cia."
Ntxiv mus, yav tas los tus thawj coj ntawm North American economist ntawm Merrill Lynch tau hais txog qhov kev cia siab loj heev rau hauv cov khoom lag luam. Nws tau sau tseg tias S&P 500 tus nqi pem hauv ntej-rau-nyiaj tau ntau yog 25% siab dua nws qhov nruab nrab ntev, thiab qhov ntsuas tau hnyav heev, raws li nws yog thaum lub sijhawm dot-com npuas.
Nws kuj tau taw qhia rau qhov kev cia siab tsis tshua muaj tshwm sim raws li cov pov thawj ntawm kev tsis txaus siab ntawm cov tub ua lag luam, thiab ceeb toom tias kev xav tau "ua nrawm nrawm rau qib uber-bullish raws li FOMO theem sawv rov los."
Rosenberg tau suab lub tswb rau ob peb lub hlis. Thaum lub Plaub Hlis lig, nws tau kwv yees tias kev lag luam poob qis los ntawm lub Cuaj Hli, 20% poob rau hauv S & P 500, thiab credit crunch raws li kev lag luam ntshai tsam qiv nyiaj. Nws kuj tau hais rau Insider thaum Lub Ob Hlis tias cov nqi tsev tuaj yeem poob los ntawm 15% -20%.
Ntau tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam tau ceeb toom tias cov khoom vaj khoom tsev yuav poob thiab kev lag luam yuav cog lus. Lawv tau taw qhia rau Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve hiking cov paj laum los ntawm zero mus rau upwards ntawm 5% txij li thaum lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav dhau los, uas tau txhawb kom txuag thiab ua kom qiv nyiaj ntau dua.
Cov nqi siab dua pab tiv thaiv kev nce nqi, tab sis lawv feem ntau yog xov xwm tsis zoo rau cov neeg siv khoom siv, kev lag luam qiv nyiaj xws li kev lag luam vaj tsev, thiab cov khoom muaj nqis xws li cov khoom lag luam.
Nyeem ntxiv: Tus tswv tsev vaj tse Jeff Greene tau ua $ 800 lab luv luv lub vaj tsev zaum kawg. Nws piav qhia tias John Paulson tau tshoov siab li cas rau qhov tsis sib xws thawj koom ruam, thiab nws tiv thaiv nws cov nyiaj txiag li cas niaj hnub no.
Nyeem thawj tsab xov xwm ntawm Kev Lag Luam Insider
Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bull-market-stocks-wont-last-005447507.html