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Kev muag tsheb hluav taws xob yog nyob rau txhua lub sijhawm siab thiab yuav tsum ncav cuag 1 lab units hauv 2023, tab sis yuav nyob twj ywm de facto khoom kim heev vim yog cov nqi roj teeb siab. Cov neeg yuav tsheb kuj tseem muaj kev txhawj xeeb txog kev them nqi hluav taws xob.
U.S. Cov neeg tsav tsheb yuav tsheb hluav taws xob thiab tsheb thauj khoom ntawm tus nqi sau tseg hauv 2022, qhia txog kev loj hlob ob tus lej hauv xyoo 2023 raws li cov neeg tsim tsheb loj thiab cov pib pib nthuav tawm qhov muag pom cov qauv tshiab. Tab sis cov nqi ntawv nplaum siab, cov roj teeb uas muaj nqi thiab kev txhawj xeeb txog kev them nyiaj yuav txuas ntxiv txwv kev loj hlob - tshwj xeeb tshaj yog sab nraum California.
Kev muag khoom ntawm EVs tau kwv yees kwv yees li 800,000 units hauv 2022, suav txog ntau dua 5% ntawm tag nrho cov lag luam, raws li Cox Automotive. Kev npaj rau cov qauv tshiab thiab cov chaw tsim khoom, suav nrog ntau txhiab nyiaj daus las raug nchuav rau hauv cov nroj tsuag tshiab los ua cov roj teeb rau cov tuam txhab suav nrog General Motors, Ford thiab Hyundai txhais tau hais tias ntu tuaj yeem loj hlob li ntawm 20% xyoo tom ntej thiab ntaus qib ib lab units. , nce mus txog 8% ntawm tag nrho US ntim, raws li Cox. Nws yog ib qho tseem ceeb heev, tab sis nws kuj txhais tau hais tias cov roj av-powered autos tseem yuav suav rau ntau tshaj 90% ntawm kev muag khoom.
"Rau qhov yuav tsum muaj kev hloov pauv, EVs yuav tsum txhim kho qhov cuam tshuam dhau California. Thiab cov lej los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm kev sau npe yog qhov tseeb heev tias EVs tseem tsis tau muaj tshwm sim hauv Asmeskas. Lawv yog California qhov tshwm sim, "Stephen Beck, tus tsim thiab tus thawj coj ntawm tuam txhab kev sab laj cg42, hais rau Forbes. "Koj tuaj yeem tau txais tus lej loj heev los ntawm kev ua haujlwm zoo hauv California vim tias nws yog lub khw loj, tab sis kom mus txog qib loj koj yuav tsum muaj kev cuam tshuam thoob plaws lub tebchaws. Peb tseem tsis tau nyob ntawd. "
"EVs tseem tsis tau muaj tshwm sim hauv Asmeskas. Lawv yog California qhov tshwm sim. "
Lub Xeev Golden, uas tau thawb cov neeg tsim khoom lag luam muag tsheb hluav taws xob txij li xyoo 1990 los pab daws cov teeb meem huab cua tsis tu ncua thiab txiav cov pa roj carbon monoxide, yog ib lub teb chaws sib txawv rau Asmeskas tag nrho thaum nws los txog rau cov tsheb siv roj teeb. Los ntawm thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2022, 15% ntawm tag nrho cov tsheb tshiab muag hauv California yog hluav taws xob, peb npaug ntawm lub teb chaws tus nqi. Nrog rau plug-in hybrids thiab ib tug me me ntawm hydrogen roj cell autos, lub xeev kwv yees nws account rau 42% ntawm tag nrho cov tsheb xoom-emission uas tau muag hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas Nws tab tom thawb kom nce qhov nce mus txog xyoo 2020 thiab tau txwv tsis pub muag cov tsheb roj av tshiab pib xyoo 2035.
Tab sis tau txais ntau tus neeg Asmeskas hloov mus rau lub tsheb hluav taws xob yuav tsum muaj lub network loj dua ntawm cov chaw them nyiaj tau yooj yim, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog rau cov neeg uas tsis muaj kev xaiv los nruab ib lub tshuab them nyiaj hauv tsev, thiab kev pheej yig dua. Tsis ntev los no tau tshaj tawm Txoj Cai Lij Choj txo qis thiab Bipartisan Infrastructure txoj cai muab kev txhawb siab tshiab rau tsoomfwv thiab nyiaj txiag rau kev yuav EVs thiab tsim cov chaw them nqi. Txawm li cas los xij, tus nqi txo qis tsis zoo nyob rau lub sijhawm ze. Qhov ntawd yog ib kev sib tw rau ntau tus neeg siv khoom Raws li tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm tus qauv hluav taws xob tshiab yog tshaj $ 65,000, piv nrog tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm $ 48,681 rau txhua lub tsheb tshiab, raws li Cox Automotive.
Xyoo 2022, cov neeg tsim tsheb tau tawm tsam nrog kev mob taub hau, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, uas ua rau kev tsim cov tsheb tshiab thiab nce nqi thoob plaws lub rooj tsavxwm. EVs, txawm li cas los xij, tseem raug rau cov nqi ntawm cov khoom siv tsis hloov pauv, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog rau lithium, nickel, cobalt thiab lwm yam hlau uas xav tau rau cov roj teeb lithium-ion.
Cameron Perks, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam laus rau London-based Benchmark Minerals, hais tias "Los ntawm cov khoom siv raw, lithium yuav txwv tsis pub EV thov kom txog thaum kawg ntawm 2025 lossis ntxov 2026," said Cameron Perks, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas laus rau London-based Benchmark Minerals, uas taug qab cov roj teeb hlau. "Tshaj tawm tus nqi siab dua kom txog thaum ntawd."
Qee cov qauv hluav taws xob pheej yig muaj nyob rau hauv kev ua lag luam, suav nrog General Motors Bolt hatchback, luv nqi los ntawm $ 27,000, thiab Equinox EV yav tom ntej nrog tus nqi $ 30,00. Hyundai's Ioniq 5 thiab Kia Niro EV raug nqi txog $41,000. Tab sis cov neeg muag khoom ntim siab tshaj plaws tseem nyob Tesla's Model Y hatchback thiab 3 sedan, luv nqi los ntawm $ 66,000 thiab $ 47,000 (tsis suav nrog kev hloov kho tus nqi zoo li lub tuam txhab muaj teeb meem Autopilot thiab Full Self-Driving nta uas ntxiv $ 21,000 rau tus pas).
Ford's F-150 Lightning electric tsheb, qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws EV qauv ntxiv rau xyoo 2022, tau pom nws tus nqi pib dhia 40% nyob rau ob peb lub hlis dhau los. Tam sim no nws pib ntawm $ 55,974.
Ford Tsav Co.
Tus qauv tshiab loj tuaj hauv 2023 yog Tesla lub zog-edged Cybertruck thiab txawm hais tias Elon Musk tau hinted nws tuaj yeem muaj tus nqi pib ntawm $ 50,000, lub tuam txhab keeb kwm qhia tias nws yuav raug nqi ntau txhiab nyiaj ntau dua. Ib yam li ntawd, Ford's F-150 Lightning electric tsheb, qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws EV qauv ntxiv nyob rau hauv 2022, tau pom nws tus nqi pib dhia los ntawm 40% nyob rau hauv ob peb lub hlis dhau los, tam sim no pib ntawm $ 55,974, ib tug $ 4,000 tus nqi nce nyob rau hauv nruab nrab Lub Kaum Ob Hlis. Raws li qhov tshwm sim, EVs tseem nyob ntawm qhov tseeb tsheb khoom kim heev, txwv cov neeg tuaj yeem them taus.
"Keeb kwm, yog tias koj saib cov tsheb nqi ntawm $ 55,000 thiab sab qaum teb koj tau pib tham txog tsuas yog 3% mus rau 5% ntawm cov neeg yuav tsheb uas muaj peev xwm them taus lawv," Eric Noble, tus tsim thiab tus thawj tswj hwm ntawm automotive adviser The CARLAB. "Nws yog tag nrho cov chaw nyob ua lag luam."
Kev txaus siab rau EV cov tswv cuab ntawm Asmeskas cov neeg siv khoom tau txhim kho txawm tias nws tau mus ntev. Tam sim no, tsuas yog 20% ntawm cov neeg laus yog "nyiam heev" los yuav lub tsheb fais fab hauv tsib xyoos tom ntej, raws li Morning Consult's Automotive & Mobility Tracker. Qhov kev txhawj xeeb tseem ceeb uas tau hais los ntawm cov neeg tshawb fawb yog qhov tsis muaj chaw them nqi, 48% ntawm cov neeg tau teev tias yog qhov tseem ceeb. Tus nqi ntawm kev muaj EV, feem ntau yog tus nqi yuav khoom, kuj yog qhov tseem ceeb lossis me me rau 69% ntawm cov neeg teb, Morning Consult tau hais.
Tsuas yog 20% ntawm cov neeg laus yog "nyiam heev" los yuav lub tsheb fais fab hauv tsib xyoos tom ntej
Ntxiv rau cov qauv tshiab ntawm txoj kev, cov neeg tsim hluav taws xob thiab cov roj teeb tau nchuav ntau txhiab daus las rau hauv Asmeskas cov roj teeb tshiab thoob plaws lub tebchaws uas yuav txhawb nqa kev tsim khoom hauv tsev thoob plaws ib nrab xyoo 2020. Cov tuam txhab xws li Redwood Materials, tsim thiab coj los ntawm Tesla cofounder JB Straubel, kuj tseem teeb tsa ntau lawm cov nroj tsuag muab cov roj teeb tseem ceeb suav nrog cov khoom siv anode thiab cathode uas tam sim no tau txais yuav luag tsuas yog los ntawm Tuam Tshoj, Kaus Lim Qab Teb thiab Nyij Pooj. Redwood kuj npaj siab siv cov roj teeb uas siv los ua hlau hauv nws cov khoom txawm hais tias Straubel lees tias cov roj teeb loj txo qis tsis nyob rau lub qab ntug hauv lub sijhawm ze.
"Qhov kev hloov pauv yog qhov zoo siab heev, pom txhua lub tuam txhab roj teeb sib txawv thiab cov ntawv tshaj tawm automaker-nws zoo li ib lub lis piam. Tab sis qhov ntawd tsis yog tam sim ntawd sib npaug rau tus nqi txo. Thiab nws yuav txawv me ntsis ntawm cov khoom siv raw, "Straubel hais rau Forbes. "Kuv xav tias zoo li peb nyob rau lub sijhawm no uas peb ua ib lossis ob kauj ruam tom ntej ntawm kev tsim khoom thiab kev lag luam ntawm nplai thiab tom qab ntawd ib kauj ruam rov qab ntawm cov nqi raw khoom."
Strauble tau hais tias "Kuv tsis pom qhov hloov pauv loj hauv ob peb xyoos tom ntej no," Strauble tau hais. "Nws yuav xav tau qee qhov kev qhib loj ntawm cov khoom siv raw thiab kuv tsis paub tseeb tias qhov twg los ntawm tseem."
XAV PAUB NTAU LOS RAU FORBES
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2022/12/22/were-not-there-yet-the-booming-electric-car-market-still-has-a-long-road- ua ntej-ntawm-nws /