Kev Sib Tw Ntshav Rau Bakhmut Muab Kev Pom Zoo Ua Ntej Yuav Ua Li Cas Xyoo Ob Ntawm Ukraine Tsov Rog yuav mus

Lub nroog Ukrainian sab hnub tuaj tsis yog lub tswv yim, tab sis nws tsis muaj teeb meem. Raws li lub xyoo thib ob pib ntawm qhov tau kwv yees tias yuav muaj teeb meem ntev hnub, Vladimir Putin tseem cuam tshuam cov neeg Lavxias mus rau hauv kev sib ntaus sib tua nyob rau ntawd thiab cov Ukrainians tseem tua lawv.

Tnws thawj zaug kos npe tias Bakhmut yuav dhau los ua kev puas tsuaj rau cov neeg Lavxias tuaj cuaj lub hlis dhau los thiab 30 mais sab qaum teb ntawm lub nroog nyob rau sab hnub tuaj Ukraine.

Thaum Lub Tsib Hlis 11, 2022, ib feem ntawm cov tub rog Lavxias teb sab tsav tsheb - ntau pua lub tsheb thiab ntau txhiab tus tub rog - sim ford Siverskyi Donetsk River txhawm rau txhawm rau txuas ntxiv Russia cov txiaj ntsig hauv thaj av Donbas hauv Ukraine.

Ukrainian drones thiab spotters ntes tau lub brigade mid-hla. Cov neeg Ukrainians tua volley tom qab volley ntawm hnyav artillery mus rau hauv Lavxias teb sab rog packed tread rau tread, xub pwg nyom ntawm tus dej ntug dej.

Thaum lub sij hawm cov pa luam yeeb tshem tawm, cov qhab nia ntawm Lavxias teb sab tso tsheb hlau luam thiab tsheb sib ntaus sib tua nteg smashed ntawm ntau pua tus neeg Russians tuag. "Qhov kev sim hla dej tau pom qhov tsis txaus ntseeg tsis txaus ntseeg," raws li Lub koom haum rau Kev Kawm Kev Ua Tsov Rog hauv Washington, DC

Cov qaib ntxhw tua tau teeb tsa rau Russia qhov kev tawm tsam ntawm Bakhmut. Nyob ib ncig ntawm tib lub sijhawm thaum dej tua neeg tua neeg, kaum tawm txhiab tus neeg kawm tsis zoo, ambivalently coj cov neeg Lavxias rov hais dua mus rau qhov npaj tau zoo hauv Ukrainian txoj haujlwm nyob rau hauv thiab ib ncig ntawm Bakhmut, lub nroog uas muaj neeg ua tsov rog ua ntej ntawm 70,000 uas nyob 10 mais sab qab teb hnub poob ntawm Lavxias- nyob Severodonetsk, ib lub nroog loj dua Donbas.

Lavxias poob siab heev - kev kwv yees thaum lub sijhawm muaj ntau txog 50,000 tus neeg raug tua thiab raug mob - uas txhawm rau ntxiv nws cov tub rog, Kremlin tau teeb tsa ib tsab ntawv ceeb toom xwm txheej ceev, tsom rau feem ntau tsis haum, cov txiv neej hnub nyoog nruab nrab los ntawm thaj chaw deb sab nraud Moscow. Lub Kremlin yuav muab cov txiv neej no nrog rau kev ua tsov rog Cold War riam phom thiab thawb lawv mus rau hauv kev sib ntaus sib tua tom qab ob peb hnub ntawm kev cob qhia.

Lavxias teb sab kev quab yuam ntawm Bakhmut arguably yog thawj, thiab txhais, kev sib ntaus sib tua ntawm qhov thib ob theem ntawm tsov rog. Qhov kev xav tsis thoob ntawm Russia qhov kev tawm tsam tsis txaus ntseeg thaum Lub Ob Hlis 24, 2022, tau hnav tawm. Cov neeg tshaib plab, ua phem rau Lavxias teb sab tub rog uas tau sim thiab ua tsis tiav nyob ib puag ncig Kyiv tau rov qab los raws li kev paub txog Ukrainian cov tub rog, muaj riam phom tshiab Western ua riam phom, caum tom qab lawv.

Yuav ua li cas yuav tsum tau ib tug Lavxias teb sab blitz thoob plaws Ukraine yog tig mus rau hauv ib tug ntshav slog. Kev ua tsov rog ceev tau dhau los ua tsov rog ntawm kev sib ntaus sib tua, qhov twg sab uas tua neeg feem ntau yog qhov muaj feem ntau ntawm kev yeej.

Tsis muaj leej twg yog qhov kev suav phem no pom tseeb dua li hauv Bakhmut. Nws tau pom tseeb thaum lub caij ntuj sov dhau los, thaum qhov ntsuas ntawm Lavxias poob nyob ib ncig ntawm lub nroog tau tshwm sim. Nws tseem pom tseeb dua tam sim no, cuaj lub hlis tom qab, raws li kev sib ntaus sib tua rau Bakhmut grinds, Lavxias tus thawj tswj hwm Vladimir Putin cog lus tias yuav tsum sib ntaus sib tua, thiab Ukraine, kev tshoov siab los ntawm kev coj noj coj ua ntawm nws tus kheej tus thawj tswj hwm, yav tas los ua yeeb yam comic Volodymyr Zelensky, tsis pom qhov cim ntawm thaub qab.

Vim li cas Bakhmut?

Some lub zos thiab lub zos muaj cuab yeej cuab tam muaj nuj nqis. Tej zaum lawv yuav hais kom thaj av siab los yog txoj kev taug txoj kev stride, txoj kab tsheb ciav hlau lossis tus dej navigable. Tej zaum lawv yuav yog lub tsev ntawm lub Hoobkas tank lossis lwm yam kev lag luam tseem ceeb.

Bakhmut tsis ua raws li cov qauv no. Qhov ze tshaj plaws uas nws muaj rau lub tswv yim zoo yog nws qhov sib thooj rau ntau txoj kev loj uas txuas cov nroog dawb Ukrainian nyob rau sab hnub poob Donbas. Tab sis Bakhmut tsis yog ib qho tseem ceeb tshaj li lub tsheb thauj mus los, hais tias, txhua lub nroog random mus rau nws sab qaum teb hnub poob.

Vim li cas cov Russians tsom Bakhmut yuav muaj tsawg dua ua tub rog tswv yim tshaj kev nom kev tswv tswv yim. Rau nws thawj ob peb lub hlis, kev ua haujlwm Bakhmut yog lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb ntawm Pawg Wagner, lub tuam txhab ua haujlwm ua haujlwm tsis zoo uas tau liam tias tau txais nyiaj txiag los ntawm Yevgeny Prigozhin, tus qub neeg muag khoom sausage thiab Putin nyiam.

Pawg Wagner ua haujlwm nrog cov tub rog Lavxias, tab sis nws tsis yog ib feem ntawm cov tub rog Lavxias. Nyob rau hauv ntau txoj kev, nws yog cov tub rog cov neeg sib tw loj tshaj plaws rau cov peev txheej hauv Moscow.

Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tau xaus lus tias Wagner kev ua phem rau Bakhmut yog lub tuam txhab txoj kev tsim cov lus piav qhia tias nws tsuas yog Lavxias teb sab quab yuam tseem muaj peev xwm ntaus cov Ukrainians.

Lub tswv yim, pom meej, yog rau Wagner los hais txog nws qhov kev sib ntaus sib tua lub koob npe nrov rau hauv kev nom kev tswv hauv Moscow. Prigozhin "txuas ntxiv kom tau txais lub zog thiab tab tom teeb tsa cov qauv tub rog sib npaug rau cov tub rog Lavxias," ISW piav qhia.

Tab sis raws li kev nom kev tswv gambit, Bakhmut yog ib tug bust.

Human Wave

To txhawb nqa nws qhov kev ua phem rau Bakhmut, Wagner tau ntiav ntau txhiab tus qub tub rog Lavxias, txawm tias nrhiav ib tus neeg tsav dav hlau uas tau drummed tawm ntawm Lavxias teb sab tub rog hauv 2012 rau nyiag thiab tsoo lub Sukhoi Su-27 fighter.

Lub tuam txhab ntiav neeg ua haujlwm tau muab nws qhov txiaj ntsig me me ntawm cov tub rog Lavxias uas raug ntaus, tsawg kawg yog ib ntus. Qhov zoo tib yam yeej tsis tau txuas ntxiv mus rau nws cov haujlwm tawm tsam Ukrainian tub rog. Txhawm rau tiv thaiv Bakhmut, Ukrainian cov lus txib tau hloov pauv hauv qee qhov ntawm nws cov tub rog zoo tshaj plaws - suav nrog, xyoo tas los, 93rd Mechanized Brigade.

Lub 93rd tsis yog qhov flashiest ntawm Ukraine lub kaum ob ntawm cov tub rog pem hauv ntej, tab sis nws yog ib qho ntawm cov ua tau zoo tshaj plaws. Cov tub rog, nrog nws tsib lub tank thiab infantry battalions - tag nrho, ntau txhiab tus tub rog thiab ib puas lossis ntau lub tsheb armored, suav nrog kev hloov kho T-64 tso tsheb hlau luam - tau nyiaj dhau qee qhov kev sib ntaus sib tua ntawm kev ua tsov rog dav dua.

Lub 93rd thiab lwm cov tub rog Ukrainian, txhawb nqa los ntawm cov phom loj ntawm 40th Artillery Brigade muaj zog, tau tawm tsam dab tsi US Army General Mark Milley, tus thawj coj ntawm Cov Thawj Coj ntawm Cov Neeg Ua Haujlwm, piav raws li "kev tiv thaiv mobile zoo heev."

Es tsis txhob tawv ncauj tuav txhua trench, bunker los yog hauv qab daus kom txog thaum lawv nyob nraum overrun, Ukrainians rub rov qab thaum lawv nyob rau hauv txaus ntshai ntawm swb. Lawv so thiab rearm, ces counterattack ib zaug Russians overextend lawv tus kheej.

Qhov kev hloov pauv no khaws cia Ukraine lub zog sib ntaus sib tua, tab sis nws yuav tsum ua siab ntev thiab ua haujlwm pab pawg. Qee hnub, nws yuav zoo li cov neeg Ukrainians poob ib ncig ntawm Bakhmut, tab sis tsuas yog vim lawv tau txiav txim siab ua lag luam chaw rau lub sijhawm.

Tos ob peb hnub, thiab cov Ukrainians tsis tsuas yog yuav rov qab tau ib qho av uas lawv nyuam qhuav ploj lawm, lawv yuav txawm pib taug kev mus tom ntej. Ntev npaum li cov thawj coj loj nkag siab tias muaj ib hnub tawm mus yog tus nqi ntawm cov tub rog pem hauv ntej them rau hnub tom ntej ua ntej, kev tiv thaiv mobile yog tus yeej rau lub sijhawm ntev tiv thaiv tus yeeb ncuab luv luv.

Ukrainian commanders kom meej meej tuav qhov ntev saib. Qhov sib piv nrog cov thawj coj Lavxias nyob ib puag ncig Bakhmut tsis tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev kub ntxhov ntau dua. Cov tub ceev xwm Wagner pheej rov thab lawv cov tub rog zoo tshaj plaws tawm tsam Ukrainian txoj haujlwm.

Kev poob siab heev. Thaum lub caij nplooj zeeg dhau los, Wagner tau ua phem rau qhov xav tau ntawm cov tub rog tshiab. Cov tub rog Lavxias nyuam qhuav sib sau ua ke 300,000 tus txiv neej hauv kev xav ua kom nws tus kheej zoo poob. Ib yam li xav tau rau lub cev sov so, Wagner tapped qhov chaw xav tsis thoob: Russia lub tsev loj cuj.

Cov neeg sawv cev ntawm tuam txhab tau muab kev zam txim rau kev sib pauv rau ob peb lub hlis ntawm kev pabcuam pem hauv ntej. Nws yog ib qho kev ntxias thaum xub thawj. Wagner tau ceev 40,000 tus neeg raug kaw yav dhau los los txhawb nws 10,000 tus kws tshaj lij kev sib ntaus sib tua nyob ib puag ncig Bakhmut.

Rushed mus rau pem hauv ntej nrog zoo tsis muaj kev npaj, cov qub convicts yog, nyob rau hauv essence, cannon fodder. Lawv tau tso cai Wagner kom tswj tau qhov nrawm ntawm nws qhov kev tawm tsam ntawm Ukrainian tiv thaiv, tab sis lawv tsis sawv ntau lub sijhawm ntawm kev tawg thiab xaus kev sib ntaus sib tua ntawm Russia cov lus. Oleksandr Pohrebyskyy, tus tub ceev xwm hauv Ukrainian 46th Air Mobile Brigade, "Lawv tactic yog xa tib neeg mus tuag," hais rau Ukrainian Pravda.

Wagner cov tub rog tau tswj hwm mus rau hauv Bakhmut sab nrauv, tab sis tsuas yog luv luv. Kev sib ntaus hauv nroog xav tau "cov tub rog kawm tau zoo nrog cov thawj coj qib qis," UK Defense Ministry hais tias.

Ukraine's brigades tau kawm ntau infantry, ua tsaug rau ib feem ntawm NATO cov kws qhia. Lawv muaj cov thawj coj zoo junior, ib yam nkaus, vim muaj kev coj noj coj ua ua tub rog faib lub luag haujlwm rau cov tub ceev xwm hluas thiab tub ceev xwm es tsis yog tsuas yog muab nws rau cov laus colonels thiab generals, raws li yog Lavxias teb sab kev cai.

Txog tam sim no, txawm tias Ukraine cov tub rog nyob ib puag ncig - sib npaug ntawm US Army National Guardsmen - tau sib ntaus sib tua thiab siv tau. Ib qho chaw zoo tshaj plaws hauv cheeb tsam, 241st, tiv thaiv Bakhmut thaum lub sijhawm tseem ceeb ntawm kev sib ntaus sib tua ntev xyoo tas los.

Raws li Bakhmut phiaj los nqis tes rau hauv nws lub hlis xya rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis, cov Ukrainians muaj qhov zoo dua. "Txoj kev sib ntaus sib tua no tsis zoo li yuav ua rau cov tub rog uas tau kawm tsis zoo Wagner," UK Defense Ministry tau hais.

Thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 21, Zelensky tau mus xyuas Bakhmut pem hauv ntej kab. "Cov tub rog Lavxias thiab tub rog tau tawm tsam Bakhmut tsis nres txij li lub Tsib Hlis," nws hais hais tias. "Lawv tau tawm tsam nws nruab hnub thiab hmo ntuj, tab sis Bakhmut sawv."

Tsawg kawg yog 4,000 Wagner fighters tuag nyob ib ncig ntawm Bakhmut hauv 2022, raws li tus saib xyuas. Thaum ntxov 2023, lo lus tau kis mus rau Russia lub tsev loj cuj. Cov neeg ua haujlwm pab dawb tau tsawg dua thiab tsawg dua kom txog rau thaum Lub Ob Hlis 9, Prigozhin tshaj tawm Wagner yuav tsis nrhiav neeg ua txhaum ntxiv lawm. Qhov tseeb, cov neeg raug txim tau txiav nws tawm.

Xyoo Ua Ntej

DKev tshem tawm ntawm nws qhov chaw tseem ceeb ntawm cov neeg ua haujlwm tshiab, Wagner tsis tuaj yeem txhawb nqa kev ua phem rau Bakhmut. Maj mam, dhau ib lub sij hawm ntawm ob peb lub lis piam thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo no, cov tub rog Lavxias tsis tu ncua, suav nrog cov tub rog uas tau kawm zoo, hloov cov tub rog tub rog sib ntaus sib tua.

Kev sib pauv maj mam "tso tseg qhov pib rau kev ua haujlwm Lavxias nyob ib puag ncig lub nroog," ISW hais tias. Nyob rau hauv qhov ze tshaj plaws rau qhov kev tawg uas Kremlin cov tub rog tau ua tiav nyob ib puag ncig Bakhmut hauv yim lub hlis ntawm kev sib ntaus sib tua tsis tu ncua thiab raug nqi, cov tub rog Lavxias thaum Lub Ib Hlis 12 tau ntes Soledar, qhov chaw me me uas zaum saum lub labyrinthine ntsev mines sab qaum teb ntawm Bakhmut.

Lub capitulation ntawm Soledar tsis tau txhais hais tias Bakhmut nyob rau hauv qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev poob, ib yam nkaus thiab. "Kev ntes ntawm qhov chaw thiab feem ntau ntawm Soledar los ntawm Wagner units yog qhov tsis muaj qhov tsis ntseeg txog kev ua tiav," Igor Girkin, tus qub tub rog Lavxias uas tau ua lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv Russia lub 2014 annexation ntawm Ukraine Crimean Peninsula. “Txawm li cas los xij, tus yeeb ncuab pem hauv ntej yog tsis tawg dhau. … Tus yeeb ncuab txib yeej tswj tau qhov xwm txheej. "

Qhov ntawd tseem muaj tseeb lub lim tiam tom qab. ISW "tsis tau kwv yees lub caij nplooj ntoos zeeg ntawm Bakhmut rau Lavxias teb sab rog," lub think tank sau.

Yog cov Russians ua kawg mus ntes Bakhmut, nws tuaj yeem yog vim Ukrainian cov neeg ua haujlwm thaum kawg txiav txim siab ua lag luam lub nroog rau lub sijhawm. ISW tau hais tias "Ukrainian cov lus txib tuaj yeem xaiv tshem tawm ntau dua li kev pheej hmoo tsis txaus ntseeg," ISW hais.

Bakhmut nws tus kheej yeej tsis muaj nqis npaum li ntawd rau Kyiv, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov pej xeem muaj tag nrho tab sis tso tseg nws. Nws tus nqi tseem ceeb yog lub sijhawm - lub sijhawm los tua cov neeg Lavxias.

Cov Ukrainians tau txeeb lub sijhawm ntawd, thiab cov neeg Lavxias yuav tsum tau ua, ib yam li lawv tau ua nyob rau ntawm tus dej Siverskyi Donetsk thaum lub Tsib Hlis. Lub lim tiam tom qab lub lim tiam, hli dhau ib hlis, cov neeg Lavxias tau tawm tsam Bakhmut nrog cov tub rog uas tsis tau kawm tiav. Cov Ukrainians tau tua lawv los ntawm ntau pua.

Qhov zoo tshaj plaws thaum lub sijhawm sib tw ntev, Wagner cov tub rog nce siab 300 ko taw ib hnub, Prigozhin kwv yees. Hauv cuaj lub hlis, lawv tuaj yeem taug kev 15 mais ze rau Bakhmut. Txhua mais, txawm li cas los xij, yog pav nrog ntau pua tus neeg Lavxias tuag.

Denis Pushilin, tus thawj coj ntawm pawg cais Donetsk Tib Neeg Lub Tebchaws nyob rau sab hnub tuaj Donbas, tau thov tias kev yeej Lavxias hauv Bakhmut yuav tshem tawm txoj hauv kev mus rau Kramatorsk thiab Slovyansk, 25 mais qaum teb sab hnub poob ntawm Bakhmut.

Tej zaum. Los yog tej zaum cov Ukrainians rub rov qab los ntawm Bakhmut yog li ntawd lawv tuaj yeem rov tsim kho thiab tsim kev tawm tsam uas rov qab lub nroog. Pohrebyskyy, tus tub ceev xwm Ukrainian hais tias "Qhov xwm txheej tuaj yeem hloov pauv hauv ib nrab hnub."

Pushilin qhov kev cia siab rau qhov theoretical Bakhmut breakthrough "ua kom pom ntxiv tias cov neeg Lavxias tseem tab tom ntsib teeb meem hauv kev ntsuam xyuas lub sijhawm thiab qhov chaw sib raug zoo" thaum nws los txog rau Lavxias cov tub rog muaj peev xwm, ISW tau hais.

Ib xyoos dhau los, Kremlin vam tias yuav ntes Kyiv thiab rhuav tshem tsoomfwv Ukrainian ob peb hnub. Peb puas thiab rau caum-tsib hnub tom qab, tom qab poob ntau npaum li 270,000 raug tua thiab raug mob hauv Ukraine, Kremlin tawm tsam kom ntes tau ib lub nroog uas tsis muaj sia nyob, tsis muaj kev sib tw. Tab sis nws pheej sim.

Bakhmut yog lub cim ntawm kev tawm tsam ntshav - thiab qhov ua tau zoo ntawm lub xyoo tom ntej ntawm kev sib ntaus sib tua.

XAV PAUB NTAU LOS RAU FORBES

XAV PAUB NTAU LOS RAU FORBESUkraine tab tom yuav khiav tawm ntawm T-64 TankBy David AxXAV PAUB NTAU LOS RAU FORBESSmashed Los ntawm Ukrainian Mines thiab Artillery, Russia lub caij ntuj no tawm tsam tsuas yog hauv av kom nres sab nraum VuhledarBy David AxXAV PAUB NTAU LOS RAU FORBESLavxias Mercenaries 'Human Wave Tactics thawb rov qab Ukrainian pab tub rog nyob rau hauv SoledarBy David AxXAV PAUB NTAU LOS RAU FORBESBakhmut Yog 'Soaked Hauv Ntshav' Raws li yim ntawm Ukraine qhov zoo tshaj plaws Brigades Sib ntaus sib tua 40,000 tus qub neeg raug kaw hauv tebchaws RussiaBy David AxXAV PAUB NTAU LOS RAU FORBESRussia's High-Tech Artillery System Yuav Tsum Yeej Tsov Rog Hauv Ukraine. Tab sis Tub Rog Tsis Paub Yuav Siv Li Cas.By David Ax