Morgan Stanley tus thawj coj ua lag luam Mike Wilson tau ua lub npe rau nws tus kheej nrog qee tus tsis ncaj ncees lawm tsis tau cia ua ntej Tshuag lag luam kwv yees nyob rau ob peb xyoos dhau los.
Thiab tam sim no, txawm tias sib xws kev poob nyiaj poob qis los ntawm economists, Wall Street's sab saum toj strategist hais tias cov khoom lag luam nyob hauv "theem kawg" ntawm lub lag luam dais.
"Koj yuav ua rau qis qis dua qee zaum hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg, thiab qhov ntawd yuav yog lub sijhawm yuav zoo heev," Wilson hais rau CNBC hauv kev xam phaj hnub Sunday.
Tab sis ua ntej leej twg maj tawm mus yuav cov khoom lag luam, Wilson tseem ceeb toom tias ob peb lub hlis dhau los ntawm kev lag luam dais yuav muaj kev kub ntxhov, hais qhov tsawg tshaj plaws.
"Nws yog txoj hauv kev uas yuav nyuaj heev," nws hais.
Txawm hais tias muaj ntau dua 5% kev sib tw hauv S&P 500 nyob rau 30 hnub dhau los, qhov ntsuas xiav-chip tseem qis dua 17% xyoo rau hnub tim. Thiab Wilson tau sib cav tias kev kwv yees nyiaj tau los ntawm tuam txhab rau 2023 tseem yog 20% siab dhau lawm, muab lub zog nyob ntawm nce nqi thiab cov nce ceev nyob rau hauv cov paj laum txog tam sim no xyoo no.
Qhov ntawd tuaj yeem txhais tau tias muaj kev poob qis dua ua ntej rau kev sib tw ua ntej lub lag luam dais dhau.
Nyob rau hauv daim ntawv qhia hnub Monday rau cov neeg siv khoom, Wilson tau sau tias nws pom peb qhov tseem ceeb "cov ntsiab lus cuam tshuam" los ntawm kev lag luam Tshuag xyoo tom ntej.
Thawj yog qhov kev sib tw ua lag luam tsis tu ncua, uas yuav tsum kav ob lub hlis thiab coj S&P 500 kwv yees li 5% siab dua, mus rau 4150.
Tom qab ntawd, Wilson cia siab tias cov nyiaj tau los kwv yees yuav poob li "dej" thiab "ice"- Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve cov paj laum nce siab thiab kev lag luam qeeb qeeb - ua haujlwm ua ke kom txo cov txiaj ntsig ntawm cov tuam txhab ua rau muaj kev saib xyuas ntau dua los ntawm pawg tswj hwm.
Kev kwv yees nyiaj poob qis yuav ua rau S&P 500 poob mus rau ntawm 3,000 thiab 3,300 hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm xyoo tom ntej, nws hais.
Billionaire investor Carl Icahn tau ua qhov kev kwv yees zoo sib xws ua ntej lub hli no, sib cav tias qhov kev rov qab los ntawm cov khoom lag luam tsis ntev los no tsis muaj dab tsi ntau tshaj li kev lag luam dais rau cov tub ua lag luam.
"Kuv tseem xav tias peb nyob hauv lub lag luam dais," Icahn hais rau CNBC. "Kuv tsis xav tias kev nce nqi yuav ploj mus ... tsis yog rau lub sijhawm ze. Kuv xav tias koj yuav muaj kev lag luam ntau dua, ntau ntawm cov nyiaj tau los txo. "
Tab sis tsis zoo li Icahn, Wilson tsis xav txog cov khoom lag luam txuas ntxiv mus rau xyoo tom ntej vim muaj kev lag luam loj heev.
Hloov chaw, CIO xav kom "rov qab" tawm ntawm thawj peb lub hlis twg qis thaum cov tub ua lag luam pib xav tias yuav rov qab los hauv kev lag luam loj hlob thiab qhov kawg ntawm lub lag luam dais.
Nws yog lub sijhawm yuav khoom zoo tshaj plaws, raws li Wilson - thiab Morgan Stanley CIO tsis yog tib lub npe loj ntawm Wall Street uas ntseeg tias muaj zog rov qab tuaj yeem ua tau hauv 2023.
Wharton tus xibfwb Jeremy Siegel hais rau hnub Monday tias nws ntseeg tias cov khoom lag luam tuaj yeem sib sau ntau npaum li 20% xyoo tom ntej vim tias kev nce nqi rov qab mus rau Fed lub hom phiaj 2%. Thiab Fundstrat's Tom Lee tau hais lub lim tiam dhau los tias S&P 500 tuaj yeem sib tw 25% tom qab qhov kev nce nqi tshiab tshaj tawm tuaj qis dua qhov xav tau.
Zaj dab neeg no yog thaum chiv keeb los Fortune.com
Ntau los ntawm Fortune:
Cov neeg Amelikas nruab nrab yog qhov kawg ntawm lub sijhawm
Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-market-end-early-next-170207914.html