Thawj ib nrab ntawm 2022 yog keeb kwm tsis zoo rau kev lag luam, thiab kev tua neeg tsis tau txwv rau cov khoom lag luam. Raws li cov khoom lag luam thiab cov ntawv cog lus tau muag tawm hauv tandem, cov tub ua lag luam uas tau ntau xyoo tau tso siab rau 60-40 cov ntaub ntawv - muaj npe vim nws koom nrog tuav 60% ntawm ib qho khoom muaj nqis hauv cov khoom lag luam, thiab qhov seem 40% hauv daim ntawv cog lus - tau tawm tsam nrhiav kev so ntawm qhov muag.
Xyaum txhua qhov kev nqis peev (nrog rau kev zam ntawm cov cuab tam tiag tiag xws li vaj tse thiab cov khoom lag luam nce ntxiv xws li roj
Qauv: CL00
) muaj kev ua haujlwm tsis zoo ntawm cov nyiaj ntsuab thiab cov nyiaj ntsuab sib npaug, zoo li cov nyiaj qiv nyiaj luv luv.
Raws li cov kws tshuaj ntsuam ntawm Goldman Sachs, Penn Mutual Asset Management thiab lwm tus, 60-40 portfolio tau ua qhov tsis zoo no rau ntau xyoo lawm.
Rishabh Bhandari, tus thawj coj loj ntawm Capstone Investment Advisors tau hais tias "Qhov no yog ib qho phem tshaj plaws pib rau lub xyoo hauv lub sijhawm ntev heev,"
Goldman qhov ntsuas ntawm tus qauv 60-40 qhov kev ua tau zoo tau poob los ntawm kwv yees li 20% txij li thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo, uas yog qhov ua tau zoo tshaj plaws txij li xyoo 1960, raws li ib pab pawg kws tshuaj ntsuam coj los ntawm Chief Global Equity Strategist Peter Oppenheimer.
Kev muag hauv cov khoom lag luam thiab cov ntawv cog lus kom deb li deb xyoo no tau tsav 60-40 cov ntaub ntawv rau lawv qhov kev ua tau zoo tshaj plaws hauv kaum xyoo. SOURCE: GOLDMAN SACHS
Tsoom fwv daim ntawv cog lus tau khiav mus rau lawv lub xyoo phem tshaj plaws txij li xyoo 1865, lub xyoo US Civil War tau xaus, raws li MarketWatch qhia ua ntej. Ntawm qhov sib npaug, S&P 500 ua tiav thawj ib nrab nrog qhov kev ua phem tshaj plaws pib ib xyoos txij li thaum ntxov 1970s. Thaum kho rau kev nce nqi, nws yog qhov phem tshaj plaws rau kev rov qab los tiag tiag txij li xyoo 1960, raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid.
Nws tau muaj qhov xwm txheej txawv txawv heev. Hauv 20 xyoo dhau los, 60-40 qhov kev npaj ua lag luam tau ua haujlwm zoo rau cov neeg ua lag luam, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau xyoo kaum xyoo tom qab muaj teeb meem nyiaj txiag, thaum daim ntawv cog lus thiab cov khoom lag luam sib sau ua ke. Feem ntau thaum cov khoom lag luam tau dhau los ua ib qho nyuaj, cov ntawv cog lus feem ntau yuav sib sau ua ke, pab cuam los ntawm kev sib npaug ntawm cov ntaub ntawv, raws li cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam muab los ntawm FactSet.
nyeem (los ntawm May): FAIB TINA? Vim li cas cov tub lag luam hauv khw muag khoom tsis tuaj yeem them taus tsis quav ntsej txog qhov nce nqi tiag tiag
Matt Dyer, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas kev nqis peev nrog Penn Mutual Asset Management, tau taw qhia tias pib xyoo 2000, Tebchaws Asmeskas tau nkag mus rau 20-xyoo lub sijhawm ntawm kev sib raug zoo tsis zoo ntawm cov khoom lag luam thiab cov ntawv cog lus, tshwj tsis yog lub sijhawm tom qab muaj kev kub ntxhov ntawm 2009 thiab 2012. Dyer piav qhia txog kev sib raug zoo nyob rau lub sijhawm ntev ntawm cov khoom lag luam thiab cov ntawv cog lus hauv daim ntawv qhia hauv qab no, uas qhia tau hais tias kev sib raug zoo pib hloov mus rau xyoo 2021, ua ntej kev muag khoom hauv 2022 pib.
Kev sib raug zoo ntawm cov khoom lag luam thiab cov ntawv cog lus, uas yog qhov tsis zoo rau ntau xyoo, tau rov qab mus rau thaj chaw zoo xyoo no. SOURCE: PENN MUTUAL ASSET MANAGEMENT
Cov neeg ua lag luam ib txwm tsis tshua muaj kev nkag mus rau lwm txoj hauv kev xws li nyiaj txiag thiab kev ncaj ncees ntiag tug, yog li, cov khoom lag luam thiab cov ntawv cog lus feem ntau yog lawv cov peev txheej yooj yim tshaj plaws. Cov kev xaiv no, txawm li cas los xij, tau dhau los ua teeb meem rau xyoo no, txij li cov neeg ua lag luam ib txwm tsis muaj qhov chaw tig, dua li cov nyiaj ntsuab, lossis cov khoom lag luam tsom.
Tseeb, dhau rau lub hlis dhau los, ntau dua 90% ntawm cov khoom muaj nqis taug qab los ntawm Goldman tau ua tsis tau zoo ntawm cov nyiaj ntsuab sib npaug hauv daim ntawv teev npe luv luv.
Cov nyiaj ntsuab tau ua tiav cov cuab tam feem ntau dhau rau lub hlis dhau los, tshwj tsis yog cov khoom lag luam, xws li roj. SOURCE: GOLDMAN SACHS
Institutional investor, ntawm qhov tod tes, muaj ntau txoj kev xaiv rau kev tiv thaiv lawv cov ntaub ntawv tiv thaiv ib txhij muag hauv daim ntawv cog lus thiab cov khoom lag luam. Raws li Bhandari ntawm Capstone, ib qho kev xaiv muaj rau cov nyiaj laus, cov nyiaj pab them nqi kho mob thiab lwm lub koom haum tab tom yuav cov kev xaiv hauv khw muag khoom uas tsim los them nyiaj thaum ob qho khoom lag luam thiab cov nyiaj poob qis. Bhandari tau hais tias cov kev xaiv zoo li no tau tso cai rau nws lub tuam txhab los tiv thaiv lawv cov kev ncaj ncees thiab kev sib raug zoo ntawm cov nyiaj tau los, txij li qhov kev xaiv uas tsuas yog them tawm yog tias ob daim ntawv cog lus thiab cov khoom lag luam poob qis feem ntau yog pheej yig dua li cov qauv kev xaiv uas them tawm yog tias tsuas yog cov khoom lag luam poob. .
Guggenheim's Scott Minerd tau ua ceeb toom ntawm lub caij ntuj sov txaus ntshai ua ntej, thaum pom zoo cov tub ua lag luam tig mus rau cov khoom muaj nqis tiag tiag li khoom, vaj tse thiab zoo art, es tsis txhob equity.
Puas yog 60/40 portfolio tuag?
Nrog rau qhov kev cia siab rau Asmeskas kev lag luam nce ntxiv tsis paub tseeb, cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tseem sib faib rau qhov yuav los tom ntej rau 60-40 cov ntaub ntawv. Dyer tau taw qhia tias yog Federal Reserve Thawj Tswj Hwm Jerome Powell ua raws li nrog a Volcker-esque hloov pauv hauv txoj cai nyiaj txiag los txhawb kev nce nqi, nws muaj peev xwm hais tias qhov kev sib raug zoo ntawm cov khoom lag luam thiab cov nyiaj rov qab tuaj yeem txuas ntxiv mus, vim tias cov paj laum nce siab yuav ua rau muaj mob ntxiv rau hauv daim ntawv cog lus (uas zoo li yuav muag tawm raws li cov paj laum nce). Qhov kev txav no kuj tseem tuaj yeem ua rau cov khoom lag luam raug mob ntxiv (yog tias cov nqi qiv nyiaj ntau dua thiab kev lag luam qeeb qeeb ntawm cov txiaj ntsig lag luam).
Thawj Tswj Hwm Powell lub lim tiam dhau los rov hais dua tias nws lub hom phiaj ntawm kev nce nyiaj rov qab mus rau 2% thiab tuav lub lag luam muaj zog ua haujlwm tseem yog qhov ua tau, txawm tias nws lub suab ntawm cov ntsiab lus. tau noj nyob rau hauv gloomier xim.
Txawm li cas los xij, muaj qhov kev sib raug zoo ntawm cov khoom lag luam thiab cov ntawv cog lus kom rov qab mus rau nws cov qauv keeb kwm. Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam Goldman Sachs tau ceeb toom tias, yog tias Asmeskas kev lag luam qeeb qeeb dua li qhov xav tau tam sim no, tom qab ntawd qhov kev thov rau daim ntawv cog lus yuav nce ntxiv thaum cov tub ua lag luam nrhiav "kev nyab xeeb" cov cuab tam, txawm tias cov khoom lag luam tseem tsis muaj zog.
Bhandari tau hais tias nws zoo siab tias feem ntau ntawm qhov mob hauv cov khoom lag luam thiab cov ntawv cog lus tau dhau mus lawm, thiab tias 60-40 cov ntaub ntawv tuaj yeem rov qab tau qee qhov kev poob hauv ib nrab xyoo. Txawm li cas los xij tshwm sim tom ntej no kawg yog nyob ntawm seb qhov nyiaj txiag pib poob qis, thiab yog tias Asmeskas kev lag luam nkag mus rau kev nplua nyiaj txiag los yog tsis.
Yog tias Asmeskas kev lag luam poob qis zuj zus mus rau qhov hnyav dua li cov tub ua lag luam tau nqis peev hauv, ces yuav muaj kev mob ntxiv rau tom ntej rau kev sib npaug, Bhandari tau hais. Lub caij no, ntawm tus nqi sab, nws tau tag nrho txog kev nce nqi. Yog hais tias tus neeg siv khoom-tus nqi Performance index, ib qho kev soj ntsuam zoo ntawm kev nce nqi, tseem stubbornly siab, ces Fed tej zaum yuav raug yuam kom nce cov paj laum ntau dua aggressively, unleashing ntau mob ntawm daim ntawv cog lus.
Rau qhov nws tsim nyog, cov tub ua lag luam tau nyiam qee qhov kev so ntawm kev muag khoom rau hnub Friday, vim tias ob qho tib si cov nqi sib tw thiab cov khoom lag luam tau nce siab ua ntej hnub so so, nrog kev lag luam kaw rau hnub Monday. Cov txiaj ntsig ntawm 10-xyoo Treasury daim ntawv
TUBMUSD 10Y,
poob 7.2 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus rau hnub Friday rau 2.901%, txo qis rov qab los ntawm qhov siab tshaj plaws tsis ntev los no ntawm 3.482% tau teeb tsa rau Lub Rau Hli 14, raws li Dow Jones Market Data.
Lub S&P 500
SPX,
rallied 1.1% Hnub Friday kom xaus ntawm 3,825.33, thaum tseem booking 2.2% poob txhua lub lim tiam, raws li FactSet. Dow Jones Industrial Nruab Nrab
DJIA,
kuj tau nce 1.1% Hnub Friday, tab sis xaus 1.3% qis dua rau lub lim tiam, thaum Nasdaq Composite Index
COMP,
nce 0.9% Hnub Friday, poob 4.1% rau lub lim tiam.
Ntawm cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam pem hauv ntej, kev lag luam yuav rov qhib hnub Tuesday nrog lub Tsib Hlis kev nyeem ntawv ntawm lub Hoobkas thiab cov khoom lag luam tseem ceeb. Hnub Wednesday nqa cov ntaub ntawv ua haujlwm thiab cov feeb los ntawm Fed lub rooj sib tham txoj cai kawg, tom qab los ntawm ntau cov ntaub ntawv ua haujlwm hnub Thursday thiab ob peb tus neeg hais lus Fed. Tab sis lub lim tiam cov ntaub ntawv loj yuav yog hnub Friday daim ntawv qhia nyiaj hli rau lub Rau Hli.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-60-40-portfolio-is-supposed-to-protect-investors-from-volatility-so-why-is-it-having-such-a- xyoo-11656716626?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo