Tesla thiab Moderna Tshuag Pib 2022 sib txawv - Dab tsi keeb kwm hais tias tshwm sim tom ntej

Dab tsi yog keeb kwm hais tias tshwm sim tom ntej? Rau lub lag luam Tshuag tag nrho: tsis ntau. Thawj hnub ntawm lub xyoo tsis suav rau ntau yam hauv cov phiaj xwm loj ntawm cov khoom thaum nws los txog rau qhov ntsuas xws li Dow lossis S&P 500.

Tab sis rau tus kheej cov khoom lag luam, thawj hnub ua lag luam ntawm lub xyoo tuaj yeem nthuav qhia ntau ntxiv. Tsib tus yeej loj tshaj plaws thiab cov neeg poob hauv S&P 500 raws li 2021 tau pib ua haujlwm loj kawg ntawm lub xyoo ntawm tib ko taw uas lawv tau pib - kom zoo dua lossis phem dua.

Thaum Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj Tim 4, 2021, Moderna yog tus neeg tau txais txiaj ntsig loj tshaj plaws nrog dhia ntawm 7%, tom qab ntawd

Da Dej & Lub Cev Ua Haujlwm

(BBWI) nrog 6.5% nce,

Newmont

(NEM) nrog 5.4%,

tapestry

(TPR) nrog 5.2%, thiab

Freeport-McMoRan

(FCX) nrog 4.3%. 

Raws li rau lub decliner,

Teledyne yees

(TDY) muaj qhov tsis txaus ntseeg ntawm kev pib xyoo 2021 nrog kev ua haujlwm tsis zoo, ua rau poob qis 7.6%. Nws tau ua raws li

Norwegian Cruise Kab Holdings

(NCLH), uas poob 6.7%,

Penn National Kev Ua Si

(PENN) nrog 6.3% poob,

Carnival

(CCL), uas poob 5.9%, thiab qhov zoo sib xws 5.9% poob rau

Hoob Aerospace

(HWM).

Qhov nruab nrab, xyoo 2021 cov neeg tau txais txiaj ntsig zoo tshaj plaws nyob rau thawj hnub ua lag luam ntawm lub xyoo tau nce 74% nyob rau 12 lub hlis tom ntej - deb tshaj qhov dav S&P 500, uas tau nce 27% xyoo tas los. Kub miner Newmont tsuas yog cov khoom lag luam ua tsis tau zoo, nce tsuas yog 3.5% thoob plaws xyoo 2021. Moderna, uas yog Lub Ib Hlis 4 tus menyuam kub, nce 143% hla tib lub sijhawm.

Nws yog daim duab gloomier rau cov khoom lag luam uas pib xyoo 2021 sib sib zog nqus liab. Qhov nruab nrab, tsib cov khoom lag luam no tau poob 8.5% - nrog Penn National Gaming tsoo 40% - thiab tsuas yog ob qho tib si tawm 2021 nrog kev nce qib. Shares nyob rau hauv tag nrho tsib lub tuam txhab underperformed lub S&P 500.

Qhov ntawd tso rau hnub Monday, thiab 2022, rau hauv ntau qhov kev xav. 

Tom qab Tesla, tus riser loj tshaj plaws hauv S&P 500 hnub Monday yog

Discovery

(DISCA), nrog 7.6% nce, thiab tom qab ntawd

Occidental Petroleum

(OXY) nrog 7.1% dhia. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings pib xyoo 2022 ntawm cov npe yeej, piv rau 2021, nce 6.9%, thiab tsib sab saum toj tau sib npaug los ntawm

ViacomCBS

(VIAC), uas nce 6.8%.

Raws li qhov tsis muaj hmoo, tom qab Moderna poob los ntawm txoj kev tshav ntuj-los ntawm txoj hauj lwm ncej hauv 2021 mus rau hnub Monday qhov poob loj tshaj plaws-yog

fortnite

(FTNT), poob 7.3%.

Bio-Techne

(TECH) tuaj tom ntej, poob 5.7%, ces

Lab Lab

(LH) nrog 5.1% poob, thiab tom qab ntawd

Kev Tshawb Nrhiav Ua Haujlwm

(DGX) ua tiav daim ntawv teev npe poob, swb 5%.

Tab sis qhov uas cov kev ua yeeb yam ib hnub no phim cov kws tshuaj ntsuam qhov kev xav rau cov khoom lag luam yog txiav txim siab ib sab rau cov bulls.

Raws li ib pab pawg, hnub Monday cov risers loj tshaj plaws - tsis suav nrog Tesla, uas nyiam qhov sib txawv ntawm cov txiaj ntsig zoo - tuaj yeem pom rov qab los ntawm 42% los ntawm lawv qhov ze rau xyoo 2022 qhov kev ua lag luam pib, raws li qhov nruab nrab ntawm cov kws tshuaj ntsuam cov hom phiaj sau los ntawm FactSet. Qhov ntawd tawg mus rau implied rov qab los ntawm 54% rau Discovery, 31% rau Occidental Petroleum, 39% rau Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, thiab 44% rau ViacomCBS.

Raws li cov npe poob, cov tub ua lag luam yuav muaj kev ntshai tsawg dua li 2021 cov lus qhia keeb kwm qhia. Lub pob tawb ntawm hnub Monday cov neeg poob loj tshaj plaws tseem tuaj yeem pom qhov nce ntawm 14% hauv 2022, raws li cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas cov nqi nruab nrab, suav nrog 26% rau Moderna, 12% rau Fortinet, 14% rau Bio-Techne, thiab 17% rau LabCorp. Quest Diagnostics tus nqi nruab nrab lub hom phiaj implied ib tug tsis zoo 0.2% rov qab nyob rau hauv lub xyoo no.

Raws li rau lub lag luam Tshuag loj, thawj hnub trading ntawm lub xyoo tsis feem ntau foretell lub neej yav tom ntej. Tom qab tag nrho, S&P 500 tau poob qis 1.5% thaum Lub Ib Hlis 4, 2021 - qhov thib xya loj tshaj plaws hnub-ib poob ntawm cov ntaub ntawv, tsuas yog peb xyoos tseem ceeb heev - ua ntej rov qab los ntawm 27%. Qhov ntawd tau muab tso rau hauv qhov thib tsib ntawm xyoo rov qab mus rau 1927. Dow poob 1.3% hauv nws qhov kev tshwm sim 2021 thiab tau nce 19% hla 12 lub hlis tom ntej.

Thaum Dow thiab S&P 500 pib xyoo 2022 los ntawm kev sau cov ntaub ntawv tshiab yog, muaj tseeb, lub cim ntawm kev cia siab hauv kev lag luam, cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum tsis txhob muaj kev cia siab rau qhov zoo dua.

As a tsis ntev los no cover story in Barron tus tau hais tseg, cov kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag kwv yees qhov txiaj ntsig ntau-muab rau 2022. Lub hom phiaj ntawm xyoo kawg rau S&P 500 thaj tsam ntawm nruab nrab-4,000s ntawm cov ntsiab lus mus rau qis-5,000s; qhov ntsuas tau xaus rau hnub Monday ntawm 4,796. Txawm tias lub hom phiaj bullish ntawm 5,100 cov ntsiab lus qhia txog 2022 rov qab los ntawm 7%.

Tab sis rau qee tus, zoo li cov kws tshawb fawb ntawm Fundstrat Global Advisors, txawm tias S&P 500 ntawm 5,100 yog qhov kev saib xyuas kev saib xyuas - thiab qhov pib muaj zog rau 2022 yog qhov cim zoo. 

Txij li thaum xyoo 1938, lub khw lag luam tau rov qab qhov nruab nrab 12% thiab nruab nrab 16% hauv xyoo tom qab kev ua haujlwm txhua xyoo ntawm 27% lossis zoo dua, pab pawg ntawm Fundstrat tau hais tias, hais txog cov ntaub ntawv keeb kwm, nrog rau qhov tsis zoo tom qab xyoo 1938 yog 1946.

Raws li JP Morgan cov kws tshaj lij tau sau rau hauv tsab ntawv tshaj tawm hnub Tuesday, cov khoom lag luam zoo rau kev lag luam Tshuag tseem tsis tau muaj zog, nrog rau kev txhawb nqa ntxiv rau cov peev txheej ua ntej txawm tias tom qab muaj kev khiav haujlwm zoo li no.

Lub tuam txhab peev pab pawg ntseeg tias tsis muaj laj thawj me ntsis los pib poob qis-txawm tias lawv ntsuas US cov peev txheej ntawm Nruab Nrab, ceeb toom tias lub zog tuaj yeem nres yog tias qhov ua tau zoo ntawm tech pib poob qis. Qhov kev loj hlob rov qab zoo li yuav nyob ruaj khov rau xyoo no, cov kws tshaj lij hais tias.

Sau rau Jack Denton ntawm [email tiv thaiv]