ACEA tus thawj tswj hwm thiab Renault CEO Luca De Meo tau yees duab thaum lub rooj sib tham xov xwm ntawm European … [+]
BELGA MAG / AFP ntawm Getty Dluab
Kev sib tw txiav caj pas yuav rov qab mus rau Tebchaws Europe kev lag luam tsheb xyoo no vim kev muag khoom tig zoo, thaum muag hluav taws xob yuav nres rau ua pa.
Qhov tshwm sim ntawm qhov kev hem thawj tshiab los ntawm Tuam Tshoj cov tsheb hluav taws xob feem ntau yuav ntxiv qhov nyuaj ntxiv rau cov tuam txhab Europe. Yog tias qhov kev hem thawj no ua rau muaj teeb meem loj rau Tebchaws Europe kev lag luam, cia siab tias yuav muaj kev tawm tsam los ntawm European Union (EU) cov nom tswv. Tsoomfwv Meskas Txoj Cai txo qis nyiaj txiag yuav ua rau muaj txiaj ntsig zoo rau kev xa tawm thiab tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev lag luam ua tsov rog yog tias Asmeskas tsis rov qab zoo li cov neeg European xav tias muaj kev ncaj ncees.
Xyoo 2022 qee cov tuam txhab pib - feem ntau yog cov khoom lag luam German - tau tswj hwm los siv cov teeb meem tshwm sim los ntawm qhov tsis muaj semiconductors. Vim tias qhov tsis txaus ua rau lawv txiav cov ntim, los ntawm kev txwv kev muag khoom feem ntau rau lawv cov kab txawv thiab ntau dua cov tshuab qis muag feem ntau txhais tau tias cov txiaj ntsig fatter.
Xyoo 2023, kev tsim khoom thiab kev muag khoom yuav nce ntxiv thiab kev lag luam nyuaj yuav rov qab los. Cov nyiaj tau los yuav los nyob rau hauv siab. Hmoov tsis zoo rau cov tub ua lag luam thiab kev lag luam, qhov kev rov qab mus rau qhov qub tseem yuav tsis zoo li lub zog ua lag luam uas tau tshwm sim ua ntej tus mob coronavirus pandemic.
Rau cov roj teeb hluav taws xob tsheb (BEVs), qhov nrawm loj hauv kev muag khoom txij li xyoo 2020 yuav khiav tawm ntawm chav, feem ntau yog cov nyiaj pab German loj raug txiav. Cov neeg tsim khoom tau ua kom lawv tsim tau ntau BEVs xyoo tas los li qhov ua tau thaum cov nyiaj pab txhawb nqa ntev, yog li kev ua lag luam yuav saturated rau qee lub hlis. EU txoj cai thov kom tsis txhob muaj cov pa roj carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions tsis nruj dua rau ob peb xyoos, yog li lub siab muag BEVs yuav rov qab mus ib ntus.
LMC Automotive cia siab tias yuav noj qab nyob zoo 7.8% nce hauv Western Europe sedan thiab SUV muag rau 10.95 lab tom qab 2022 lub 4.1% poob. Tsis txhob hnov qab txog tus kabmob ua ntej tus kabmob coronavirus yog qhov loj tshaj 14.29 lab hauv 2019. Ntau qhov kev lag luam tsim khoom tseem tab tom npaj kom tau raws li Western European kev lag luam ntau dua 2 lab loj dua li qhov kev cia siab tam sim no. LMC ntxiv qee qhov kev ceeb toom rau nws qhov kev kwv yees.
"Kev txwv tsheb thauj mus los txuas ntxiv mus rau xyoo 2023 rau cov tebchaws nyob sab Europe sab hnub poob vim qhov kev thov rau tsheb tseem muaj ntau dua cov khoom siv. Txawm li cas los xij, peb qhov kev kwv yees kwv yees tias kev tsim khoom lag luam yuav yooj yim thaum xyoo 2023, uas ua rau muaj kev loj hlob ntawm kev sau npe rau xyoo, "LMS tau hais hauv tsab ntawv tshaj tawm.
"Qhov ntawd tau hais tias, kev ua lag luam xav tias yuav nyob twj ywm rau ntawm 2019 qib. Los ntawm kev pom kev lag luam macroeconomic, West European lub teb chaws tab tom ntsib kev lag luam poob qis, nrog tus nqi siab dua thiab cov paj laum ua rau cov nyiaj tau los ntawm tsev neeg tiag tiag. Txawm hais tias qhov kev pheej hmoo tsis zoo rau qhov kev pom zoo los ntawm qhov kev pom zoo ntawm kev lag luam macroeconomic poob qis, kev txiav txim backlogs muab qee lub ncoo rau qhov no, "LMC hais.
Western Europe suav nrog tag nrho cov lag luam loj ntawm lub teb chaws Yelemees, Fabkis, Britain, Ltalis thiab Spain.
Txoj Cai ntawm 2022, Inflation Reduction USA
txais
Kev Tshawb Nrhiav Kev Lag Luam Schmidt hais tias 2023 Western European BEV kev muag khoom yuav nce mus rau 1.6 lab los ntawm 1.5 lab hauv 2022. Kev lag luam feem yuav nyob ntawm 15.1% ntawm kev lag luam loj dua. Kev loj hlob ntawm BEV kev muag khoom yuav qeeb ntawm 2022 thiab 2024 kom tsawg dua li ib feem pua.
"BEV kev sib xyaw tsis xav tias yuav pom kev loj hlob mus txog 2025 thaum lub sijhawm tom ntej (EU tau txib) CO2 txiav nkag mus rau hauv lub zog. Peb cia siab tias yuav nce 4.9% ntau dua 2022 qib mus rau 20% los ntawm 2025, "Schmidt Automotive tau hais hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom.
Schmidt Automotive cia siab tias los ntawm 2030, BEV muag hauv Western Europe yuav ncav cuag 65% ntawm tag nrho 14.2 lab kev ua lag luam.
Kev nqis peev hauv tuam txhab UBS tsis sau npe rau qhov kev xav zoo-zoo rau kev muag tag nrho.
"Peb cia siab tias yuav pom qhov kev loj hlob zoo xyoo-rau-xyoo (hauv European tsheb muag) nyob rau lub hlis tom ntej, raws li Q2 2022 lub hauv paus tau cuam tshuam loj heev los ntawm Russia-Ukraine tsov rog, uas tau nres qee cov kab ntau lawm rau ob peb lub lis piam," UBS hais. hauv ib daim ntawv qhia.
"Txawm li cas los xij, peb tsis kwv yees 2023 kev muag khoom kom yeej xyoo dhau los raws li cov tswv lag luam twb tau hais kom (cov neeg tsim khoom) rau kev txiav nqi ntawm cov khoom tsis muaj zog. Peb ua raws li peb qhov kev xav tias (cov neeg tsim khoom) yuav tsum xaiv ntawm qhov poob ntim nrog cov nqi tam sim no lossis tus nqi qis kom tswj tau qhov ntim, ib qho ntawm cov no tsis zoo rau cov nyiaj tau los, "UBS hais.
Fabkis auto kws pab tswv yim Inovev cia siab tias kev muag khoom nyob rau hauv tag nrho cov teb chaws Europe yuav nce siab tshaj plaws ntawm 4% hauv 2023, tsis muaj kev hloov pauv ntau ntawm tag nrho cov kev noj qab haus huv ntawm kev ua lag luam, tseem poob qis heev tom qab kev sib kis ua ntej. 2024 yuav tsum muaj zog dua.
"Lub hauv paus, qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm kev ua lag luam yuav tsum tsis txhob hloov pauv loj heev hauv 2023 piv nrog 2022, muab kev lag luam thiab kev nom kev tswv ib puag ncig uas yuav tsum tsis txhob hloov zuj zus xyoo no. Yog li peb yuav tsum muaj peev xwm ncav cuag me ntsis ntau dua 13 lab hauv peb qhov xwm txheej siv. Qhov ntawd tseem nyob deb ntawm 17.3 lab mus txog rau xyoo 2019. Kev loj hlob tseem ceeb ntawm kev lag luam tuaj yeem tshwm sim los ntawm 2024 nrog kev cia siab nce ntawm 5 mus rau 6%, "Inovev hais.
Lub caij no, yuav tsum muaj kev tawm tsam los ntawm EU rau US IRA.
Luca de Meo, Tus Thawj Coj ntawm Renault thiab tus thawj tswj hwm ntawm European Automotive Manufacturers Association tau hais tias kev tiv thaiv ua rau muaj kev nce nqi thiab kev ua tsis tau zoo, yam tsis muaj kev iab liam.
"Tab sis kuv xav tias cov neeg nyob sab Europe yuav tsum teb (rau IRA). Koj yuav tsum nrhiav kev tawm tsam los tiv thaiv kev lag luam, "nws hais, raws li Automotive News Europe.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2023/02/13/tepid-european-auto-recovery-will-ignite-competition-while-electric-car-growth-slows/