'Ua kom zoo dua ntawm qhov kev thim rov qab no,' hais tias Morgan Stanley tus thawj coj uas pom kev yuav khoom thaum muaj kev kub ntxhov ntawm Russia-Ukraine

Slimmon tau hais tias "Kuv xav tias thaum peb dhau mus rau xyoo tom ntej, kev ua lag luam yuav zoo dua," Slimmon hais. "Kuv nyob hauv cov chaw pw hav zoov uas ntseeg tias Fed yuav tsis cuam tshuam kev lag luam thiab yog li kev sib tw, cov khoom lag luam muaj txiaj ntsig yuav tsum muaj kev ncaj ncees hauv cov ntaub ntawv tshaj li kev tiv thaiv thiab kev loj hlob cov khoom lag luam."

Qee cov tub ua lag luam txhawj xeeb Fed tej zaum yuav tsum tau txav mus rau qhov hnyav rau xyoo no hauv kev nce cov paj laum los tswj kev nce nyiaj nce ntxiv, nrog rau kev txhawj xeeb yog tias kev nce qib nce nrawm dhau tuaj yeem ua rau kev lag luam. Tab sis Slimmon tab tom twv Fed yuav tsis "tua" kev lag luam rov qab los ntawm kev sib kis.

Cov paj laum nce yog "zoo rau nyiaj txiag," nws hais. "Qhov hnyav tshaj plaws uas peb muaj yog nyob rau hauv nyiaj txiag."

S&P 500 cov nyiaj txiag sector
SP500EW.40,
+ 1.76%
tau nce 1.5% nyob rau hnub Tuesday tav su kev lag luam, raws li FactSet. S&P 500 Performance index tau ua lag luam 1.4% siab dua, thaum Dow Jones Industrial Nruab Nrab
DJIA,
+ 1.22%
tau nce 1.2% thiab Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
+ 2.53%
tau qhia qhov ntse 2% nce.

Cov khoom lag luam, uas muag tawm rau hnub Friday thaum muaj kev txhawj xeeb tias Russia tau npaj txhij mus txeeb Ukraine, tau nce hnub Tuesday vim tias cov kev ntshai no tau txo qis. Lub Koom Haum Xov Xwm tau tshaj tawm hnub Tuesday tias Lavxias Thawj Tswj Hwm Vladimir Putin tau hais tias Moscow tau npaj txhij rau kev sib tham nrog NATO txog kev txwv rau kev xa mus rau missile, ib qho kev qhia ntawm kev txo qis kev ntxhov siab uas ua raws li Russia tshaj tawm txog kev thim rov qab ntawm qee cov tub rog.

Txog tam sim no xyoo 2022, S&P 500 poob ntau dua 6%, thaum Dow tawm ntawm 4% thiab Nasdaq Composite tau poob ib ncig ntawm 10%, FactSet cov ntaub ntawv qhia, thaum kawg kos. 

Keeb kwm, thaum Fed nce tus nqi, "tsuas yog qhov txiaj ntsig nkhaus tsis flatten rau xoom lossis thim rov qab," tus nqi khoom lag luam zoo dua, Slimmon hais. Cov tub ua lag luam tab tom saib cov txiaj ntsig nkhaus ze li qhov kev hloov pauv zoo li teeb meem kev lag luam poob qis. Thaum kawg, qhov sib txawv ntawm Daim Ntawv Teev Nyiaj Txiag 2 xyoos
TUBMUSD 02Y,
1.576%
thiab tus qauv 10-xyoo Nyiaj Txiag
TUBMUSD 10Y,
2.053%,
ib qho kev ntsuas ntawm qhov nkhaus yield, los yog kev sib kis ntawm yields rau luv luv maturity thiab lawv ntev-hnub counterparts, sawv nyob rau hauv 0.50 feem pua ​​cov ntsiab lus. Qhov ntawd sawv cev rau qhov kev sib kis nqaim hauv keeb kwm tab sis nthuav dav me ntsis los ntawm cov kev sib tham dhau los.

Hauv cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam tshaj tawm hnub Tuesday, US Bureau of Labor Statistics tau hais tias cov nqi lag luam wholesale, uas cuam tshuam txog yam kev lag luam them rau cov khoom siv, tau dhia 1% thaum Lub Ib Hlis. Qhov kev nce siab hauv tus nqi tsim khoom, lossis PPI, tau dhau qhov kev cia siab ntawm cov neeg ua lag luam thiab yog lwm qhov cim ntawm kev nce nqi siab uas cuam tshuam rau Asmeskas kev lag luam.

Saib: Cov nqi lag luam wholesale tau nce ntxiv raws li kev nce nqi kub ua rau Asmeskas kev lag luam

Thaum Slimmon tau piav qhia qhov kev nyeem ntawv tshiab ntawm PPI tias "tsis zoo," nws hais tias kev nce nqi yuav tsum pib yooj yim tom qab xyoo no vim qhov kev xav tau ntawm cov khoom lag luam hauv kev sib kis tau poob qis. Nws tau taw qhia rau "cov ntaub ntawv pov thawj" hauv Morgan Stanley cov lus nrog cov tuam txhab, hais tias lawv cov khoom muag tau tsim.

Slimmon kuj tau hais tias xyoo dhau ib xyoo kev nyeem ntawv ntawm kev nce nqi ntsuas los ntawm cov neeg siv khoom-tus nqi ntsuas yuav tsum pib qis thaum lub caij nplooj ntoo hlav vim tias kev sib piv yuav tsis raug tsim los ntawm cov ntawv luam tawm tsawg. Qhov ntawd yuav tsum pab txo qee qhov "kev ntxhov siab" nyob ib puag ncig qhov dhia ntawm tus nqi ntawm kev nyob hauv kev sib kis, nws hais.

Lub caij no, cov nyiaj khwv tau los ntawm ib qho kev kwv yees rau S&P 500 qhov ntsuas tau nce rau xyoo no thiab 2023, Slimmon hais. Raws li tus thawj coj saib xyuas cov ntaub ntawv, "qhov kuv mob siab txog yog kev hloov kho," nws hais. "Thiab cov kev hloov kho tau nce mus."