Supply Chain Issues tuaj yeem rov qab los hauv Q3 2022

Aggregate Inventories tau rov qab los tab sis Auto Inventories tseem nyob rau hauv siab:

Cov teeb meem ntawm kev xa khoom tau yog ib qho kev tshwm sim zoo tshaj plaws uas tau ua nyuaj rau kwv yees. Txawm hais tias muaj kev txhim kho hauv kev tswj hwm cov saw hlau txij li qhov kev tsim khoom hnyav raug txwv thaum muaj kev sib kis, cov khoom siv hluav taws xob txuas ntxiv ua ib qho tsis muaj zog hauv ntau qhov kev lag luam, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog tsheb.

Tsis tas li ntawd, semiconductor bottleneck tau muaj kev cuam tshuam thiab cuam tshuam rau kev lag luam sab nraud ntawm kev tsim tsheb, xws li ad-tech. Qhov tseeb, ad-tech tau yog ib qho ntawm cov kev lag luam raug ntaus ntau tshaj plaws vim muaj teeb meem ntawm cov saw hlau. Qhov no yog vim lub tsheb yog ib pawg tseem ceeb ntawm kev siv nyiaj, thiab tsis muaj cov khoom muag muag, cov peev nyiaj tshaj tawm tau raug txiav. Txawm li cas los xij, peb cia siab tias qhov no tsuas yog ib qho kev txhawj xeeb ib ntus thiab qhov kev tshaj tawm thev naus laus zis yuav rov qab los rau xyoo 2022 vim tias cov khoom lag luam muaj teeb meem pib ua haujlwm zoo.. Peb tshwj xeeb tshaj yog saib rau cov luv nqi hauv tech uas kav los ntawm ib ntus tsis tau sab nraud qhov teeb meem sab nraud ntawm ib lub tuam txhab tswj hwm.

Pab pawg I/O Fund tau dhau los ntawm kev cia siab rau kev tswj hwm kev tawm tswv yim thiab kawm cov ntaub ntawv kom nkag siab zoo dua cov saw hlau tsis muaj zog. Peb pom tias cov khoom lag luam sib sau ua ke feem ntau tau rov qab los, tab sis cov khoom lag luam tsheb tseem nyob hauv siab. I/O Fund Financial Analyst Bradley Cipriano sau tseg tias kev tshuaj xyuas ntawm cov khoom muag tsheb muaj pes tsawg leeg qhia tias cov teeb meem ntawm cov khoom siv-chain yuav zoo li qis dua thiab yuav txhim kho mus tom ntej.

Lub I / O Fund tau xaiv kom nruj thaum lub caij Q4 cov nyiaj tau los ntawm Lub Ib Hlis thiab Lub Peb Hlis los ntawm kev tsim cov haujlwm tshaj tawm rau qhov laj thawj no. Peb cia siab tias kev txhim kho cov khoom lag luam yuav ua rau muaj kev rov qab los ntawm kev tshaj tawm tsheb hauv tsheb hauv ib nrab xyoo tom qab, ua rau kev loj hlob ntawm topline rau ad-tech sector. Peb sib tham txog vim li cas peb ntseeg tias cov khoom lag luam teeb meem yuav yooj yim nyob ib puag ncig H2 2022 hauv qab no.

Supply Chain Management: Tag Nrho Cov Khoom Muag tau rov qab los tab sis Cov Khoom Muag Nws Pib Tseem Ceeb

Kev kis thoob qhov txhia chaw tau pib thaum ntxov 2020 thiab ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam uas cuam tshuam rau ob qho tib si cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau. Nrog tsoomfwv tswj hwm qhov chaw nyob nruj hauv qhov chaw xaj, kev tsim cov khoom lag luam poob qis hauv 2020 tab sis cov neeg siv khoom tseem xav tau cov khoom. Tsoomfwv kev txhawb nqa ntxiv txhawb nqa qhov kev thov thiab muaj tsawg dua ntawm kev cog lus hauv tag nrho cov kev xav tau ntau dua li qhov xav tau. Qhov kev hloov pauv no tau ua rau muaj kev tsis txaus txaus uas ntau cov haujlwm tau ua haujlwm dhau los.

Txij li thaum cov khoom lag luam yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm qhov sib txawv ntawm kev tsim khoom thiab kev muag khoom nyob rau lub sijhawm, qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm kev txo qis tab sis kev xav tau ntau ntxiv ua rau txo qis hauv cov khoom muag hauv 2020 thiab 2021. Raws li qhia hauv qab no hauv kab ntawv 1, kev hloov pauv hauv cov khoom ntiag tug, uas yog ib qho kev ntsuas ntawm tus nqi ntawm lub cev ntim ntawm cov khoom muag uas cov lag luam tswj hwm los txhawb lawv cov khoom, cov khoom poob qis hauv Q2 2020. Qhov tseeb, $ 300 billion drawdown hauv cov khoom muag hauv Q2 2020 yog qhov kev poob qis tshaj plaws hauv keeb kwm.

Txawm li cas los xij, thaum Q2 2020 sawv cev rau qhov poob qis tshaj plaws ntawm cov ntaub ntawv, Q4 2021 sawv cev qhov nce loj tshaj plaws ntawm cov ntaub ntawv, raws li cov khoom lag luam qib tau rov qab los ntawm ntau dua $ 200 billion. Qhov kev rov qab ntse no pab qhia tias kev tsim khoom tau txais rov qab nrog kev thov

Daim duab 1. 50-xyoo Trend of Changes in Private Inventories

Daim duab 2. Peb-Xyoo Txoj Kev Hloov Pauv Hauv Cov Khoom Muag

Hauv kab ntawv 3 (hauv qab no), cov khoom lag luam tseem nce ntxiv txheeb ze rau kev muag khoom, qhia tias tau muaj kev tsim hauv cov khoom muag qib. Tsis tas li ntawd, qhov ntsuas tau siab tshaj qhov nruab nrab tsib xyoos, txhais tau hais tias cov khoom muag tsis nruj ntawm cov txheej txheem ntsuas.

Daim duab 3. Tsib-xyoos Trend of Private inventories to Final Sales

Thaum cov kab kos saum toj no qhia tau hais tias tau muaj kev rov qab muaj zog hauv cov khoom muag hauv kev lag luam, nws ua tsis tau rau hauv tus account. hom ntawm cov khoom muag. Tshwj xeeb, txawm tias qhov rov qab los ntawm cov khoom muag tag nrho, cov khoom muag tsheb tau poob mus rau txhua lub sijhawm lows.

Daim ntawv qhia hauv qab no los ntawm US Bureau of Economic Analysis qhia tau hais tias cov khoom muag pib tau poob qis rau cov ntaub ntawv qis thiab tab tom hovering saum 0. Tsis muaj ntau cov khoom muag muag, tsis muaj kev txhawb siab me me los siv rau kev tshaj tawm, uas tau cuam tshuam tsis zoo rau ad-tech.

Daim duab 4. Domestic Auto Inventories

Daim duab 5. Cov Khoom Muag Khoom Siv Hauv Tsev rau Kev Muag Khoom

Cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Dentsu's Global Ad Spend Report qhia txog qhov kev siv tsheb loj npaum li cas tseem qis dua 2019 qib. Raws li qhia hauv qab no hauv kab ntawv 6, kev siv tsheb thoob ntiaj teb kev siv nyiaj poob qis 16% YoY hauv 2020, thiab rov qab tsuas yog 12% hauv 2021, txhais tau tias kev siv tsheb thoob ntiaj teb tseem yog ~ 6% qis dua nws cov qib ua ntej kis thoob qhov txhia chaw. Txij li thaum cov neeg tshaj tawm tsheb siv nyiaj ntau ntawm lawv cov peev txheej ntawm kev tshaj tawm TV, cov tuam txhab ad-tech raug cuam tshuam rau TVs tau cuam tshuam tshwj xeeb los ntawm kev rov qab muag muag hauv kev siv nyiaj pib tshaj tawm hauv qab no. Raws li kuv mam li tham nyob rau hauv ntau yam hauv qab no, peb ntseeg hais tias automotive ad kev siv nyiaj tau qis dua thiab yuav yog qhov tailwind rau ad-tech mus rau tom ntej.

Daim duab 6. Automotive Ntiaj Teb Them Nyiaj Tshawb Nrhiav Ad siv

Curiously, txawm tias qhov tseeb tias cov khoom lag luam pib nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv qis, cov tuam txhab tsim tsheb cov khoom lag luam kuj tseem nyob ntawm ib qho. txhua lub sijhawm zoo. Raws li qhia hauv qab no hauv Daim Ntawv Qhia 7, tag nrho cov khoom lag luam qib hauv kev lag luam tsheb tsim khoom tau nce thoob plaws xyoo 2021 thiab mus rau 2022.

Daim duab 7. Automotive Total Inventories

Cov kev sib txawv no yog tsav los ntawm kev tshaj tawm zoo tshaj plaws semiconductor bottleneck. Raws li Daim Ntawv Qhia 7 hais txog saum toj no, cov tuam txhab tsim tsheb muaj ntau qhov yuav luag tiav cov khoom muag uas zaum tsis ua haujlwm kom txog thaum cov khoom siv semiconductor tuaj txog.

Thaum cov khoom siv ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tuaj txog, cov tuam txhab tsim tsheb yuav tsum muaj peev xwm nrawm nrawm thiab tig cov khoom lag luam ua haujlwm rau hauv cov khoom tiav uas tuaj yeem muag tau. Tsis tas li ntawd, qhov no tseem yuav tsum tau tsav kev thov rau kev tshaj tawm raws li cov tuam txhab pib muag kom hloov lawv cov khoom muag mus rau hauv cov nyiaj ntsuab sai sai.

Hmoov zoo, muaj cov cim qhia ntawm kev txhim kho rau cov teeb meem kev xa khoom, tshwj xeeb los ntawm kev lag luam tsheb. Piv txwv li, pab pawg tswj hwm Volkswagen Group tau piav qhia ntawm lawv Q4 hu tias lawv "cia siab tias cov khoom siv semiconductor yuav tsum txuas ntxiv rau xyoo 2022, tab sis maj mam txhim kho nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo"(03/15/22).

General Motors tau hnov ​​​​qhov kev xav zoo sib xws thaum nws hu Q4 cov nyiaj tau los. GM CEO Mary Barra tau hais tias "los ntawm lub sijhawm peb mus txog peb lub hlis twg peb thiab plaub [ntawm 2022], Peb tab tom yuav pib pom qhov kev txwv ntawm semiconductor tsawg zuj zus"(02/01/22).

Txawm li cas los xij, qhov kev xav no tsis tau qhia los ntawm txhua tus thawj coj hauv tsheb. CEO ntawm Stellantis, tus tsim ntawm Dodge RAM, Fiat thiab lwm lub npe, tau hais rau lub tuam txhab Q4 hu (2/23/22) tias qhov loj ntawm lub lag luam tsheb yuav tau tsav los ntawm kev muab khoom ntawm semiconductors, ntxiv tias "cia siab tias, txhua yam yuav tau me ntsis zoo dua. Tab sis peb ntseeg tias nws yuav qeeb heev. Nws yuav siv sij hawm. Thiab 2022 yuav tsis yog los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawd, xyoo uas peb tuaj yeem hais tias peb rov qab mus rau qhov qub. Peb tsis xav tias yuav tshwm sim "

Saib rau pem hauv ntej, automotive manufacturers muaj outsized raw khoom thiab ua hauj lwm-nyob rau hauv-txoj kev cov khoom muag uas yuav pab tau lawv sai ramp ntau lawm ib zaug semiconductor muab kev txhim kho. Lub sijhawm ntawm qhov kev sib tw no tseem tsis tau paub, nrog qee tus thawj coj pib xav tias H2 2022 yuav rov qab mus rau qhov qub, thiab lwm tus kwv yees lub qab ntug ntev dua.

Hnub Tuesday tom ntej, peb yuav sib tham txog cov cim ntawm kev txhim kho ntawm cov khoom lag luam tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob semiconductor thiab qhov no txhais li cas rau ad-tech nrog rau ib qho kev tawm tswv yim thawj koom ruam I / O Fund ua hauv ad-tech thaum lub Ib Hlis-Lub Peb Hlis muag.

Bradley Cipriano, Financial Analyst, CFA, CPA ntawm I/O Fund, pab txhawb rau qhov kev tshuaj ntsuam no.

Disclosure: Beth Kindig thiab I/O Fund tsis muaj koom nrog hauv cov tuam txhab sib tham thiab tsis muaj kev npaj nkag lossis hloov lawv txoj haujlwm hauv 72 teev tom ntej. Cov kab lus saum toj no qhia txog cov kev xav ntawm tus sau, thiab tus sau tsis tau txais nyiaj them los ntawm ib qho ntawm cov tuam txhab sib tham.