Macroeconomic outlooks ntawm daim ntawv cog lus thiab kev lag luam ncaj ncees txuas ntxiv mus, JPMorgan tau hais.
Yog tias kev lag luam daim ntawv cog lus yog txoj cai txog kev pheej hmoo nyiaj txiag, cov khoom lag luam yuav ntsib 20% muaj peev xwm poob qis.
Cov lus ceeb toom tuaj thaum lub lag luam dais hauv S&P 500 tau xaus, teeb tsa rau lub khw muag nyuj tshiab.
Kev tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm kev ncaj ncees thiab kev lag luam nyiaj txiag tau nthuav dav hauv lub hlis tsis ntev los no, raws li ob chav kawm khoom vaj khoom tsev qhia txog qhov sib txawv ntawm kev lag luam, JPMorgan cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tau hais hauv tsab ntawv rau hnub Thursday.
Tab sis yog tias kev lag luam nyiaj tau los ruaj khov qhov kev xav tau nyiaj txiag pov thawj zoo, cov khoom lag luam yuav ntsib 20% muaj peev xwm poob qis.
"Kev lag luam daim ntawv cog lus tseem tab tom raug nqi nyob rau lub sijhawm ntev ntawm kev nce qib macroeconomic tsis paub meej, txawm tias muaj qee qhov qis qis hauv peb lub hlis dhau los. Los ntawm qhov sib piv, kev lag luam kev ncaj ncees zoo li 'tus nqi rau kev ua tiav' nrog S&P tam sim no saum toj kawg nkaus tus nqi kwv yees saib los ntawm kev nce hauv macroeconomic volatility txij li thaum muaj kev sib kis, "saib daim ntawv hais.
Raws li JPMorgan tus qauv, kev nce nqi tsis paub tseeb tau swb, nrog rau kev poob qis hauv kev nce nqi ntxiv.
"Yog tias kev lag luam kev ncaj ncees yog tus nqi nce hauv kev nce nqi nce mus rau qib raws li kev lag luam nyiaj txiag tshwm sim rau tus nqi, qhov no yuav cuam tshuam txog 20% downside ntawm qib tam sim no," cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tau hais.
Cov lus ceeb toom tuaj raws li kev lag luam dais hauv S&P 500 tau xaus, teeb tsa rau lub khw muag nyuj tshiab, tom qab tawm hauv kev lag luam kev ntxhov siab thiab cov nuj nqis tsis zoo hauv kev saib tom qab. Lub VIX, feem ntau suav hais tias yog lub khw lag luam 'kev ntshai ntsuas, tau ntaus nws qhov qis tshaj hauv peb xyoos.
Indices kuj tau raug tshem tawm los ntawm kev sib sau ua ke hauv cov khoom lag luam thev naus laus zis, raws li kev txawj ntse txawj ntse tau ua rau kev lag luam mus tom ntej. Nws tau ua rau qee tus kwv yees qhov kev hloov pauv ntxiv, xws li tus kws tshawb fawb nyiaj txiag Ed Yardeni, uas tau hais txog 'Niam ntawm txhua qhov Melt-ups' scenario.
Qhov no yog txawm tias qee qhov kev cia siab ntawm lwm qhov kev nce siab ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve lub rooj sib tham tom ntej, vim tias kev ua lag luam thiab cov nyiaj ua haujlwm tseem muaj zog.
Tab sis, nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv uas cov lag luam daim ntawv cog lus muaj peev xwm saib yav dhau los inflationary kev pheej hmoo, JPMorgan cia siab tias yields ntawm 10-xyoo Treasurys yuav poob los ntawm ib ncig ntawm 70 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus.
Nyeem thawj tsab xov xwm ntawm Kev Lag Luam Insider
Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-plummet-20-bond-markets-215443630.html