Cov khoom lag luam yuav lag luam tom qab daim ntawv cog lus thiab txawm tias poob qis dua 10 xyoo tom ntej, hais tias tus qauv ntsuas raws li yim qhov ntsuas

Ib xyoo dhau los, kuv tau tshaj tawm tias cov qauv ntsuas ntsuas nrog cov ntaub ntawv zoo tshaj plaws tau txiav txim siab tias lub khw muag khoom muaj nqis heev. S&P 500
SPX,
-0.03%
tau poob 18% txij thaum ntawd los, thiab thev naus laus zis-oriented Nasdaq Composite Index
COMP,
-0.52%
yog nqes 29%.

Nws yuav yog ntxov ntxov rau cov kws pab tswv yim uas ntiav cov qauv no txhawm rau qhib lawv lub raj mis Champagne. Lawv tau ceeb toom rau ntau xyoo txog kev lag luam dais uas yuav tshwm sim, thiab txog rau xyoo no lawv tau ua yuam kev.

Hauv cov xyoo dhau los, lawv tau tiv thaiv lawv tus kheej los ntawm kev sib cav tias cov qauv kev ntsuas tsis yog qhov ntsuas luv luv, thiab yuav tsum tau txiav txim rau lub sijhawm ntev. Nws tsis ncaj ncees rau lawv tam sim no, nyob rau hauv lub wake ntawm lub xyoo daim ntawv qhia hnub uas thaum kawg ua raws li lawv cov kwv yees bearish tsab ntawv, mam li nco dheev tsom rau lub sij hawm luv luv.

Qhov kev txawj ntse ntau dua kev ua siab ncaj yog los qhia rau txhua tus neeg tias cov qauv ntsuas muaj peev xwm kwv yees me ntsis, yog tias muaj, ntawm ib lub xyoo qab ntug. Raws li lawv cov ntaub ntawv teev tseg tau zoo, nws yog lub sijhawm ntev dua, xws li kaum xyoo.

Daim ntawv qhia nrog rau, rau yim tus qauv ntsuas uas kuv niaj hnub saib hauv kab ntawv no, lawv tau kwv yees li cas rau kaum xyoo dhau los. (Thov saib hauv qab no.) Qhov nruab nrab, lawv tau kwv yees tias S&P 500 yuav tsim kev nce nqi-hloov kho thiab faib nyiaj rov qab los ntawm 5.2% txij thaum ntawd mus txog hnub no.

Kuv muab qhov kev kwv yees qhov nruab nrab ib qib dhau mus. Ntawm ib sab, nws tau qis dua li 9.7% txhua xyoo rov qab los tiag tiag uas cov khw lag luam tau tsim los ntawm qhov ntawd mus txog rau tam sim no.

Ntawm qhov tod tes, cov qauv no raug kwv yees tias cov khoom lag luam yuav ua tau zoo dua cov ntawv cog lus. Ib xyoo caum dhau los, 10-xyoo Treasuries
TUBMUSD 10Y,
3.687%
tau kwv yees tias yuav tsim qhov tsis zoo 0.7% ib xyoos twg tag nrho cov nyiaj rov qab los ntawm lub xyoo caum tom ntej, raws li lawv cov txiaj ntsig tam sim no thiab 10-xyoo kev nce nqi nce ntxiv uas tau yeej. Raws li nws tau muab tawm, 10-xyoo Treasuries tau ua qhov tsis zoo 2.6% txhua xyoo rov qab los ntawm qhov tseeb txog tam sim no.

Hauv lwm lo lus, cov qauv ntsuas no 10 xyoo dhau los tau kwv yees tias cov khoom lag luam yuav ua tau zoo dua cov ntawv cog lus nyob rau xyoo tom ntej los ntawm cov nyiaj tau los txhua xyoo ntawm 5.9 feem pua ​​​​cov ntsiab lus. Txawm hais tias qis dua li 12.3 feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov nyiaj tau los txhua xyoo los ntawm cov khoom lag luam hauv qhov tseeb tshaj tawm cov ntawv cog lus, cov tub ua lag luam uas ua raws li cov qauv no 'cov thawj coj xav tias tsis yog npau taws heev rau kev coj mus deb ntawm daim ntawv cog lus rau hauv Tshuag.

Raws li koj tuaj yeem pom los ntawm daim ntawv qhia, qhov nruab nrab tam sim no 10-xyoo Tshuag lag luam kwv yees ntawm yim qauv no yog tag nrho cov nyiaj rov qab tiag tiag ntawm rho tawm 1.0% txhua xyoo. Tsis tsuas yog qhov qis dua li 5.2% qhov nruab nrab qhov kwv yees los ntawm kaum xyoo dhau los, nws tseem qis dua qhov kev kwv yees nce rau 10-xyoo Treasuries ntawm 1.4% txhua xyoo saum toj no kev nce nqi. Yog li cov qauv no tam sim no tau qhia peb tias cov khoom lag luam rov qab los ntawm kaum xyoo tom ntej yuav qis dua qhov kawg, thiab lawv tuaj yeem ua haujlwm tsis zoo.

Yuav ua li cas cov nqi ntsuas cov qauv sib sau ua keeb kwm

Cov lus hauv qab no qhia tau hais tias yuav ua li cas txhua yam ntawm kuv yim qhov ntsuas qhov ntsuas ntsuas tau sib tw rau nws cov keeb kwm ntau yam. Txawm hais tias txhua tus qhia txog kev ua lag luam qis dua li qhov muaj yeej thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo no, lawv tseem tsis tau npaj ua lag luam tsis muaj nqi ntau.

	Tseeb	Lub hli dhau los	Pib xyoo	Percentile txij thaum 2000 (100 feem ntau bearish)	Percentile txij thaum 1970 (100 feem ntau bearish)	Percentile txij thaum 1950 (100 feem ntau bearish)
P / E Piv	21.48	20.65	24.23	48%	66%	75%
CAPE ratio	29.29	28.22	38.66	76%	83%	87%
P / Dividend ratio	1.68%	1.72%	1.30%	78%	84%	89%
P/Sales ratio	2.42	2.33	3.15	90%	91%	91%
P/Book ratio	4.02	3.87	4.85	93%	88%	88%
Q ratio	1.70	1.64	2.10	88%	93%	95%
Buffett ratio (PIB/PIB)	1.59	1.54	2.03	88%	95%	95%
Kev faib nyiaj nruab nrab ntawm tsev neeg	44.8%	44.8%	51.7%	85%	88%	91%

Mark Hulbert yog cov uas tau ua haujlwm rau MarketWatch li niaj zaus. Nws Hulbert Ratings taug qab cov ntawv xov xwm kev nqis peev uas them tus nqi them tus nqi yuav raug kuaj. Nws hu tau rau ntawm [email tiv thaiv].