Cov khoom lag luam sib sau ua ke zoo li nws yog 'lub hom phiaj ua tiav' - tab sis cov tub ua lag luam xav kom ceev faj thaum Nasdaq nkag mus rau bull market

Samana ceeb toom tias kev nce nqi tseem nce siab txawm tias tom qab kev txo qis hauv Lub Xya Hli. Kev nce nqi tseem ceeb, uas tshem tawm cov khoom noj thiab lub zog, tej zaum yuav nyob twj ywm "dhuav" siab raws li thaj chaw xws li kev loj hlob ntawm cov nyiaj ua haujlwm thiab cov nqi vaj tse yuav zoo li qub, uas tej zaum yuav yog "teeb ​​meem" rau Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve, nws hais. 

Teb Chaws Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam tau sib sau rau hnub Wednesday, nrog cov thev naus laus zis hnyav Nasdaq Composite nkag mus rau bull market territory, raws li Dow Jones Market Data.

Cov tub lag luam yuav tsum nyob twj ywm tiv thaiv, raws li Samana, uas tau hais tias Wells Fargo nyiam kev noj qab haus huv thiab hnyav dhau ntawm kev lag luam thaum nyuam qhuav hloov kho cov neeg siv khoom thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob rau nruab nrab. Nws cia siab tias yuav muaj kev lag luam poob qis pib hauv ib nrab xyoo no, txawm hais tias "peb tsis xav tias kev lag luam muaj txiaj ntsig tau cuam tshuam txog qhov ntawd."

Nyeem: ARK's Cathie Wood: Tebchaws Asmeskas twb nyob rau hauv kev lag luam poob qis, tuaj yeem tawm hauv 2023

Wells Fargo Investment Institute kuj nyiam lub zog thiab thev naus laus zis, Samana hais. 

"Peb nyiam thev naus laus zis vim tias nws tsom mus rau kev lag luam ntawm cov neeg siv khoom lag luam," tsis zoo li cov neeg siv khoom uas lawv cov kev siv nyiaj txiav txim siab yuav raug kaw, nws hais. Samana tau hais tias "cov tuam txhab lag luam tej zaum yuav ua rau nws dhau los ntawm kev lag luam kev lag luam tom ntej no me ntsis zoo dua li cov neeg siv khoom, uas yuav muaj lub sijhawm nyuaj zoo nkauj nrog cov nqi qiv nyiaj ntau dua" thiab kev nce nqi siab.

Teb Chaws Asmeskas kev nce nqi, raws li kev ntsuas los ntawm cov neeg siv khoom-tus nqi ntsuas, tsis hloov pauv thaum Lub Xya Hli, tom qab dhia 1.3% hauv Lub Rau Hli, rau ib xyoos twg ntawm 8.5%, US Bureau of Labor Statistics qhia hnub Wednesday. Kev nce nqi ntawm kev nce nqi hauv 12 lub hlis dhau los tau qeeb los ntawm 9.1% hauv Lub Rau Hli. 

Nyeem: Teb Chaws Asmeskas cov neeg siv khoom tus nqi nce siab ua rau poob qis thaum Lub Xya Hli

Lub Xya Hli kev nce nqi qis dua qhov xav tau, hais tias George Catrambone, DWS Group tus thawj coj ntawm Asmeskas kev lag luam, hauv kev sib tham hauv xov tooj hnub Wednesday. "Lub hauv paus tau zoo dua li tib neeg tau ntshai."

Core CPI, uas tsis suav nrog zaub mov thiab lub zog, tau nce 0.3% hauv Lub Xya Hli, qeeb los ntawm 0.7% nce hauv kev nce nqi hauv lub Rau Hli. Cov kws tshawb fawb kev lag luam los ntawm The Wall Street Journal tau kwv yees tias cov neeg siv khoom-tus nqi ntsuas tau nce 0.2% nyob rau lub Xya Hli thiab qhov nyiaj txiag tseem ceeb tau nce 0.5%.

"Muaj qee qhov kev cia siab yuav tsum muaj raws li qee cov ntaub ntawv uas peb tau pom," Catrambone. "Tab sis yog tias kev ua lag luam tseem nce ntxiv, koj yuav pom cov txiaj ntsig pib rov ua dua."

Hauv nws txoj kev xav, "kev ua lag luam tau ua ntej ntawm nws tus kheej," nrog S&P 500 tam sim no ua lag luam ntawm tus nqi pem hauv ntej-rau-nyiaj tau txais txiaj ntsig ntawm ib ncig ntawm 17.5 txawm tias Fed tseem cog lus rau 2% lub hom phiaj nyiaj txiag. Ntxiv rau, "lub taub hau thoob ntiaj teb" tseem nyob, nws hais tias, taw qhia txog kev txhawj xeeb txog Russia-Ukraine tsov rog thiab thaj chaw tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm Asmeskas thiab Tuam Tshoj nrog rau Taiwan.

Catrambone tau hais tias nws txhawj xeeb tias "kev ua lag luam tsis quav ntsej" ntau npaum li cas Fed hais tias nws tseem tsis tau ua hauv kev txo qis nyiaj txiag los ntawm kev nce nws cov paj laum.

Nyeem: Fed's Evans hais tias Lub Xya Hli CPI cov ntaub ntawv yog 'zoo,' tab sis 'tsis muaj leej twg tuaj yeem zoo siab' nrog 8.5% kev nce nqi txhua xyoo

Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam kaw nrawm dua rau hnub Wednesday, nrog Nasdaq Composite coj txoj hauv kev. S&P 500
SPX,
+ 2.13%
nce 2.1% kom tiav ntawm 4,210.24, thaum Dow Jones Industrial Nruab Nrab
DJIA,
+ 1.63%
nce 1.6% thiab tech-laden Nasdaq
COMP,
+ 2.89%
nce 2.9%, raws li cov ntaub ntawv FactSet.

Cov tub ua lag luam "yuav tsum tau tsom mus rau cov txiaj ntsig thev naus laus zis, kev ua tau zoo hauv kev lag luam thev naus laus zis," hais Catrambone.

Steve Chiavarone, tus thawj coj ntawm multiasset daws teeb meem ntawm Federated Hermes, hais tias nws tau underweight tech "rau qhov zoo ntawm lub xyoo" thiab yog "tsis muaj" thaum nws los txog rau stocks piv rau daim ntawv cog lus. 

"Tech tau ua lag luam ntawm qhov kev cia siab ntawm cov paj laum," Chiavarone tau hais hauv xov tooj hnub Wednesday, nrog rau cov khoom lag luam loj hlob xws li tech raug mob ua ntej xyoo no hauv kev cia siab ntawm Fed cov nqi nce siab los tawm tsam kev nce nqi nce ntxiv. Tam sim no kev ua lag luam zoo li tab tom saib ua ntej mus rau qhov muaj peev xwm Fed pivot, qhov twg lub hauv paus tsev txhab nyiaj yuav ncua kev taug kev raws li qhov nce siab tshaj plaws hauv qhov muaj peev xwm poob qis thiab tom qab ntawd txiav cov nqi.

"Kuv xav tias nws ntxim hlub dhau ib nrab," Chiavarone hais. "Kuv xav tias txhua qhov no yuav siv sijhawm ntev dua" los ua si. 

Thaum hnub Wednesday qhov kev sib tw ua lag luam tau qhia txog qee qhov "nyem" tom qab kev nyeem ntawv nce nqi rau lub Xya Hli tau zoo dua li qhov xav tau, "Kuv tsis xav tias nws yog qhov hloov pauv kev ua si," nws hais. "Cov nqi hluav taws xob tau nqis los, uas yog qhov zoo," nws hais tias, tab sis cov nyiaj txiag tseem ceeb hauv 12 lub hlis dhau los tseem nyob ruaj khov ntawm 5.9%.

"Cov xwm txheej nyiaj txiag tam sim no looser" dua li ua ntej Fed tau nce siab thaum Lub Xya Hli, txawm hais tias Fed tab tom npaj kom nruj nws txoj cai nyiaj txiag kom txo qis nyiaj txiag, Chivarone hais.

Tsis tas li ntawd saib: Cov tub ua lag luam-kev lag luam zoo siab cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag lub Xya Hli. Cov tuam txhab npe loj xws li Pimco thiab BlackRock tsis paub meej.