Tojsiab
Nrog rau kev lag luam lag luam poob rau rau lub lis piam dhau los ua ke thaum muaj kev txhawj xeeb ntxiv txog kev lag luam qeeb thiab Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve nce cov paj laum los tiv thaiv kev nce nqi, ntau tus kws tshaj lij Wall Street tau ceeb toom txog tam sim no "tsis xis nyob siab" kev pheej hmoo nyiaj txiag, nrog. nce qhov sib txawv ntawm kev poob qis hauv ob xyoos tom ntej.
Kev lag luam txuas ntxiv tawm tsam raws li cov kws tshaj lij ceeb toom txog kev poob qis.
Richard Drew / ASSOCIATED PRESS
Cov Lus Tseem Ceeb
Kev lag luam tau nce qis dua rau hnub Monday, tawm tsam kom rov qab los ntawm kev muag khoom siab phem nyob rau lub hlis tsis ntev los no uas tau ua rau cov khoom lag luam thev naus laus zis mus rau qhov ntswg-dub thiab thawb S & P 500 mus rau ntawm ntug kev lag luam hauv cheeb tsam.
Goldman Sachs tau dhau los ua lub tuam txhab loj tshaj plaws los txo nws txoj kev lag luam kev lag luam rau hnub Monday, hais txog cov paj laum siab dua thiab "kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam qeeb dua li peb tau xav yav dhau los," txawm tias cov khoom lag luam tseem tuaj yeem thim rov qab tom qab xyoo.
Goldman tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag David Kostin tau txo qis nws lub hom phiaj rau xyoo kawg rau S&P 500 rau 4,300 los ntawm 4,700 - txhais tau hais tias kwv yees li 7% upside los ntawm qhov ntsuas tam sim no nyob ib puag ncig 4,000 tab sis 9% poob ntawm 2021, thaum ntxiv tias yog tias muaj kev lag luam poob qis, qhov ntsuas yuav poob ntxiv 10% rau 3,600.
Txawm hais tias qee qhov kev kwv yees hais tias kev poob qis tsis nyob hauv daim npav, ntau tus kws tshawb fawb txog nyiaj txiag tau ceeb toom txog kev poob qis: "Kev pheej hmoo tsis zoo siab thiab nce siab," hais tias Moody's Analytics tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag Mark Zandi hauv tsab ntawv tsis ntev los no.
Raws li kev lag luam tawm tsam los cuam tshuam nrog "kev mob siab rau kev nce nqi," uas tau "yuav yuam Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve mus rau qhov kev ceeb toom siab," Zandi tso qhov txawv ntawm kev lag luam poob qis ntawm 33% hauv 12 lub hlis tom ntej thiab ze li 50% hauv 24 lub hlis tom ntej. hli.
Yav tas los Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein hais rau CBS hnub Sunday tias qhov muaj peev xwm ntawm kev lag luam poob qis yog "muaj kev pheej hmoo siab heev" thiab tsuas yog "txoj kev nqaim" mus rau kev nyab xeeb, kwv yees tias qee qhov kev ntxhov siab nyiaj txiag yuav nyob twj ywm "kos."
Tseem Ceeb:
Zandi hais tias, kev lag luam muag tsis ntev los no yeej "ua rau muaj kev ntshai poob qis," Zandi hais tias, nrog kev poob qis coj los ntawm "kev muag khoom zoo kawg nkaus hauv cov khoom siv thev naus laus zis yav dhau los. Keeb kwm, thaum kev nce nqi nce siab thiab Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve ua haujlwm hnyav los tua nws, kev lag luam nyiaj txiag tshwm sim ntau dua li tsis tau. "
cons:
"Txawm hais tias kev lag luam poob qis hauv Q1, feem ntau cov kws lag luam thiab cov qauv kev lag luam tsis tam sim no kwv yees qhov kev lag luam poob qis," sau tseg Bespoke Investment Group. Txawm hais tias qhov kev xav tsis txaus ntseeg zuj zus tom qab Asmeskas kev lag luam tau cog lus 1.4% hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg xyoo 2022, cov kws tshawb fawb tseem xav tias GDP thib ob yuav rov qab los txog li 3%.
Nyeem ntxiv:
Stocks Rebound, Ua pa los ntawm Selloff-Tab sis kev lag luam poob rau lub lim tiam thib rau hauv kab (Forbes)
S&P 500 Hits Tshiab 2022 Tsawg Raws li 'Staggering' Kev Lag Luam Losses Mus Ntxiv (Forbes)
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2022/05/16/stocks-keep-tanking-as-growing-number-of-wall-street-experts-warn-about-rising-recession- txaus ntshai/