(Bloomberg) - Ib qho lus ceeb toom ntawm Phab ntsa Street rau ib xyoo caum yog tias cov rooj sib tham tau dhau los ntawm cov neeg hluas dhau los tsis paub tias nws zoo li cas los mus rau Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve nruj voj voog. Lawv tab tom nrhiav tam sim no.
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Hauv kev lag luam, muaj kev kub ntxhov, tom qab ntawd muaj qhov koj hu ua ob hnub dhau los, thaum 900-point Dow rally tau ua raws 12 teev tom qab los ntawm 1,000-point poob. Ntau pua txhiab nyiaj daus las ntawm tus nqi yog conjured thiab incinerated thoob plaws cov cuab tam nyob rau hauv qhov chaw ntawm ib hnub tsis ntev los no, ib tug stark reversal los ntawm ncaj-up trajectory ntawm lub post-pandemic era.
Qhov twg ib zaug txhua dip tau yuav, tam sim no txhua bounce yog muag. Hnub Thursday tsuas yog hnub thib plaub hauv 20 xyoo uas cov khoom lag luam thiab cov ntawv cog lus tau tshaj tawm 2% - ntxiv rau kev poob qis, mus los ntawm cov nyiaj pauv pauv loj uas taug qab lawv. Kev sib tham sib cuam tshuam txog kev ntxhov siab ntawm qhov loj ntawm qhov kev ntseeg siab tau txhawb kev xav tias cov nyiaj loj raug yuam kom muag.
"Kuv ntshai ib yam li lwm tus," said Jim Paulsen, tus thawj coj kev nqis peev ntawm Leuthold Group thiab yog ib qho ntawm Wall Street cov bulls pom tshaj plaws. "Kuv tau ua lag luam yuav luag 40 xyoo tam sim no - tej yam no tsis yooj yim dua, vim tias koj tsis paub tseeb thiab koj kuj paub tias koj tau ua txhaum yav dhau los."
Tom qab lub churn yog Fed tau cog lus rau qhov yuav ua rau muaj kev tawm tsam ntau tshaj plaws ntawm kev txhawb nqa kev lag luam txij li xyoo 1994. Ib zaug ntawm kev ruaj ntseg rau kev lag luam, lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv tuam txhab tam sim no nws tus thawj antagonist, tau cog lus los txo qis kev nce nqi kub tshaj plaws hauv plaub. xyoo lawm.
"Cov neeg siv khoom tau hu thiab hais tias, 'Yog li peb puas tau ua tiav? Peb yuav tsum txhawj xeeb? Peb puas yuav tsum muab nws tso rau hauv lub txaj?' "Qhov no zoo li me ntsis ntau dua li xyoo 2000, 2002, qhov twg nws tsuas yog qhov tsis tu ncua tsis tu ncua los ntawm qee qhov kev tawm tsam."
Fed cuam tshuam yog nyob txhua qhov chaw. Hnub Wednesday, tom qab Thawj Tswj Hwm Jerome Powell tau tshaj tawm tias qhov nce ntawm 75 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus yog tawm ntawm lub rooj rau cov rooj sib tham tom ntej, cov khoom lag luam tau sib sau ua ke, xa S & P 500 mus rau qhov loj tshaj tom qab Fed nce hauv kaum xyoo. Tom qab ntawd kev ua lag luam buckled rau hnub Thursday, nrog qhov Performance index poob ntau dua 3.5% raws li cov tub luam rov ntsuam xyuas cov toj roob hauv pes.
Tshaj li 25 xyoo dhau los, tsuas yog peb lub rooj sib tham Fed txoj cai tau pom kev lag luam loj ntawm qhov loj me mus rau qhov kev poob qis hauv thawj ob hnub.
Frank Davis, tus thawj coj loj ntawm LEK Securities hais tias "Qhov txawv ntawm ib hnub twg ua rau," "Nag hmo tib neeg tau nyeem rau hauv Fed cov lus pom qee qhov kev kwv yees thiab kev ruaj ntseg. Tab sis tam sim no qhov ntawd zoo li lub taub hau loj. "
Txhua yam cuab yeej cuab tam raug kev txom nyem los ntawm central bank-induced kev kub ntxhov. Cov nyiaj daus las, poob yuav luag 1% ntawm Fed hnub, ua kom rov zoo tag nrho rau hnub Thursday kom mus txog 20-xyoo siab. Hauv cov nyiaj tau los ruaj khov, 10-xyoo Cov Nyiaj Txiag Nyiaj Txiag tau tshem tawm hnub Wednesday tus swb, topping 3%.
Ob peb cia siab tias cov tub rog caij nkoj yuav caij txhua lub sijhawm sai sai, lossis pab pawg tiv thaiv plunge. Fed tau cuam tshuam los ntawm kev nce nqi thiab xav tau nyiaj txiag kom nruj kom txo qis kev txaus siab ntawm cov nqi khoom noj, tsheb thiab chaw nyob. Thaum Powell tau rov hais dua kev ntseeg siab hauv kev ua tiav qhov chaw mos hauv kev lag luam, qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev lag luam poob qis yog kev hem thawj rau cov tub ua lag luam tsis tuaj yeem tsis quav ntsej, raws li Dennis DeBusschere, tus tsim ntawm 22V Kev Tshawb Fawb.
"Qhov no yog vim li cas txhua qhov kev tawm tsam yuav tsum tau muag," DeBusschere tau hais. "Vim tias cov cuab tam muaj kev pheej hmoo siab dua txhais tau tias koj tsis tawm tsam kev nce nqi! Koj tsis muaj txoj kev tawm !! ” nws ntxiv. "Leej twg tus heck yuav nqis mus rau hauv daim kab xev no?"
Qhov tseeb, 2022 tab tom tsim los ua lub xyoo mob siab tshaj plaws rau cov neeg yuav khoom hauv ntau xyoo lawm. Txij li thaum Lub Ib Hlis, qhov nruab nrab poob hauv S&P 500 tau kav 2.3 hnub, ntau dua txhua xyoo txij li xyoo 1984, thaum nws rov qab los tom qab kev sib tham tau tsis zoo 0.2%. Qhov ntawd yog qhov phem tshaj hauv 35 xyoo.
Cov neeg ua lag luam, ua rau muaj kev vam meej ntawm kev yuav poob rau feem ntau ntawm kaum xyoo dhau los, tau npau taws los ntawm qhov kev paub tshiab, tawm ntawm cov nyiaj ncaj ncees hauv lub Plaub Hlis ntawm ib qho ntawm qhov nrawm tshaj plaws hauv xyoo.
Rau Greg Boutle, Asmeskas tus thawj coj ntawm kev ncaj ncees thiab kev sib tw ntawm BNP Paribas, hnub Wednesday bounce yog "qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev ua lag luam dais."
Nws tau hais tias "Txoj haujlwm tau muaj kev tiv thaiv zoo rau qhov kev txav no, uas qee qhov tuaj yeem txo qhov kev ntshai lossis raug yuam muag," nws hais. "Tab sis tus nqi txiav txim hnub no, nws nyuaj rau nyeem raws li lwm yam tsis muaj teeb meem hauv lub sijhawm luv luv."
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Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/scared-everybody-else-stocks-shaky-201016954.html