(Bloomberg) - Cov khoom lag luam thiab lwm yam khoom muaj txiaj ntsig muaj lub sijhawm los tawm tsam yog Jerome Powell xa cov lus tsis txaus ntseeg ntawm Jackson Hole symposium, cov kws tshaj lij hais.
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Hawkish cov lus tsis ntev los no los ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve cov neeg ua haujlwm zoo li tau ntseeg cov neeg koom nrog kev lag luam kom tawm ntawm txoj kev raws li lub hauv paus tsev txhab nyiaj nce cov paj laum, ua rau muaj kev pom zoo tias Thawj Tswj Hwm Powell yuav xa cov lus hawkish rau hnub Friday, raws li Standard Chartered Plc.
Steve Englander, tus kws tshaj lij ntawm New York-based strategist ntawm lub tsev txhab nyiaj tau sau ntawv hauv tsab ntawv tshawb fawb "Peb pom muaj kev pheej hmoo tias cov nqi lag luam hawkishness ntau dua li nws muab," "Nrog rau qhov chaw tsis txaus ntseeg nyob rau hauv cov kev taw qhia poob qis, peb tuaj yeem pom kev txhawb nqa txawm tias nyob rau ntawm qhov tsis txaus ntseeg, lees paub tias cov ntaub ntawv ntawm kev ua ub no thiab kev nce nqi yog qhov kawg ntawm USD tsav tsheb."
Kev xav rau ob qho tib si cov khoom lag luam thiab cov ntawv cog lus tau hloov pauv nyob rau hnub tsis ntev los no raws li cov tub lag luam brace rau qhov muaj peev xwm hawkish pivot los ntawm Powell ntawm Kansas Fed lub xyoo rov qab. Tebchaws Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam txuas ntxiv mus rau Asia hnub Tuesday thiab ntsuas US 10-xyoo cov txiaj ntsig tau tuav siab dua 3% thaum muaj kev cia siab ntawm Fed txoj cai nruj ntxiv.
'Dovish Surprise'
Tseem, chav rau kev xav tsis thoob ntawm Jackson Hole tam sim no muaj kev txwv ntau, hais tias Alvin T. Tan, tus thawj coj ntawm Asia txawv teb chaws-kev sib pauv tswv yim ntawm RBC Capital Markets hauv Singapore.
Nws tau hais tias "Kuv tsis ntseeg tias Powell yuav ua ntej cog lus rau ib qho kev nce qib quantum nyob rau lub Cuaj Hli Ntuj Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Qhib Kev Lag Luam Lub Rooj Sib Tham, yeej tsis yog 75 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus," nws hais.
Muaj qhov ua tau Powell tuaj yeem rov hais dua nws cov lus los ntawm Lub Xya Hli Fed sib sau ua ke, qhov chaw uas nws hais tias lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab yuav muaj cov ntaub ntawv ntau ntxiv mus rau yav tom ntej, uas yuav yog "dovish surprise," thiab txhawb kev rov pib dua hauv kev lag luam sib luag, Tan tau hais.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. cov neeg siv khoom kuj tseem nyob deb ntawm kev ntseeg tias kev hloov pauv hawkish yuav zoo li. Tsib caug feem pua ntawm lawv hais tias Fed tsis zoo li yuav ua rau muaj kev xav tsis thoob ntawm lub rooj sib tham, thaum tsuas yog 43% tau hais tias lawv xav tias yuav muaj kev ntxhov siab thiab 7% xav tias yuav muaj kev puas tsuaj, raws li tsab ntawv tshaj tawm.
Lub Fed zoo li yuav nyob twj ywm hawkish, tab sis cov cuab tam muaj kev pheej hmoo tuaj yeem sib tw yog tias Powell tawm kev taw qhia tsis meej dua, hais tias Charu Chanana, tus kws tshaj lij ntawm Saxo Capital Markets hauv Singapore. Piv txwv li, nws tuaj yeem hais tias lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv tuam txhab tseem tseem nyob ntawm cov ntaub ntawv los yog teeb meem kev txhawj xeeb txog kev lag luam poob qis, nws hais.
(Hloov tshiab los ntxiv cov lus pom zoo rau hauv nqe lus cuaj)
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