(Bloomberg) - Bulls reeling los ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve qhov tseem-hawkish qaij tab tom yuav poob lub zog loj uas tau pab txo qis kev ntxhov siab hauv Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam nyob rau lub lim tiam no macroeconomic ua yeeb yam.
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Kwv yees li $ 4 trillion ntawm cov kev xaiv yuav tsum tas hnub Friday nyob rau hauv ib lub hlis twg uas zoo li yuav ntxiv turbulence rau hnub trading. Lub sijhawm no, nrog S&P 500 daig rau lub lis piam hauv 100 cov ntsiab lus ntawm 4,000, lub ntim loj muab qhov chaw pib dua uas tuaj yeem ua lag luam turbocharge. Muab qhov kev lim hiam uas tshwm sim nyob rau hauv cov hnub tsis ntev los no, los ntawm kev nce nqi nce siab los ntawm cov tuam txhab nyiaj hauv ntiaj teb thoob ntiaj teb kom pom tseeb tias Asmeskas kev lag luam tab tom pib chij, kev txhawj xeeb tau nce lub sijhawm tas sijhawm yuav ua raws li lub hnab ntim huab cua.
Qhov ntawd yog li cas David Reidy, tus tsim ntawm First Growth Capital LLC, pom nws ua si. Hauv nws qhov kev xav, kev ua lag luam tau raug cuam tshuam nyob rau hauv "ntev gamma" lub xeev uas cov neeg muag khoom xaiv yuav tsum tau tawm tsam qhov kev sib tw, yuav cov khoom lag luam thaum lawv poob thiab rov qab.
Hnub Friday qhov kev tshwm sim "tuaj yeem ua txhaum qhov nruj ntawm gamma raug thiab ua rau qee qhov tawg, uas yog, chav rau qhov ntsuas kom tawg," Reidy tau hais. "Qhov ntawd yuav yog qhov kev poob qis uas muab kev hloov pauv txoj haujlwm xyoo tas los thiab kev pom kev lag luam macro."
Cov kev xaiv khi rau 4,000 qib ntawm S&P 500 tus account rau qhov loj tshaj plaws ntawm cov paj paj qhib rau kev loj hlob thiab ua raws li ib yam dab tsi ntawm kev sib txuas rau tus nqi ntsuas hauv lub lis piam mus txog rau hnub Friday, raws li Brent Kochuba, tus tsim ntawm Spot Gamma.
Cov khoom lag luam twb raug kev nyuaj siab rau hnub Thursday vim tias European Central Bank koom nrog Fed hauv kev nce cov paj laum thiab ceeb toom txog kev mob ntxiv tuaj. S&P 500 poob 2.5%, kaw hauv qab 3,900 thawj zaug hauv tsib lub lis piam.
Qhov ntawd tau teeb tsa lub hnub tseem ceeb, thaum cov neeg tuav cov kev xaiv khi rau cov khoom lag luam thiab cov khoom lag luam tus kheej - uas nws tus nqi tsis txaus ntseeg raws li Goldman Sachs Group Inc. tus kws tshaj lij Rocky Fishman muaj nqis txog $ 4 trillion - yuav tsum tau yob dhau txoj haujlwm tam sim no lossis pib tshiab.
Qhov kev tshwm sim lub sij hawm no coincides nrog lub quarter tas sij hawm ntawm index yav tom ntej nyob rau hauv ib tug txheej txheem ominously hu ua triple witching. Ntxiv rau qhov ntawd los ntawm kev sib npaug ntawm qhov ntsuas ntsuas ntsuas suav nrog S&P 500. Kev sib xyaw ua ke zoo li ua rau muaj qhov sib luag ntawm ib hnub uas nyob ntawm qhov siab tshaj plaws ntawm lub xyoo.
Chris Murphy, tus thawj coj ntawm cov tswv yim sib piv ntawm Susquehanna International Group tau hais tias "Nruab nrab ntawm kev tas sij hawm thiab qhov sib npaug, hnub Friday yuav zoo li yog hnub kawg 'kwv yees' ntawm 2022.
Cov neeg lag luam xaiv tau npaj rau kev ntxhov siab mus rau hauv lub lim tiam no tsab ntawv ceeb toom ntawm cov neeg siv khoom thiab lub rooj sib tham dhau los ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Qhib Kev Lag Luam ntawm lub xyoo. Nyob rau hauv ib qho kev ceeb toom ntawm kev ntxhov siab, kev lag luam derivatives tau ua ib yam dab tsi txawv hnub Monday nrog Cboe Volatility Performance index, ib qho kev ntsuas ntawm kev xaiv tus nqi hu ua VIX, dhia ntau dua 2 cov ntsiab lus thaum S&P 500 nce 1.4%. Qhov ntawd yog qhov kev sib tw loj tshaj plaws txij li xyoo 1997.
"Qhov tseem ceeb ntawm tag nrho cov kev xaiv tus nqi khi rau hnub Friday yog qhov siab heev, thiab muaj kev cuam tshuam rau qhov tsis txaus ntseeg (thiab lub sijhawm lwj) vim tias lawv yuav tas sijhawm nyob rau ob peb hnub," SpotGamma's Kochuba tau hais. "Thaum cov xwm txheej dhau mus, qhov tsis txaus ntseeg tsis txaus ntseeg (piv txwv li tus nqi ntawm cov kev xaiv no) tanked, ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam los ntawm kev cuam tshuam uas ua rau rov qab mus rau kev lag luam."
Qhov kev hloov pauv tau tshwm sim rau hnub Wednesday, raws li kev poob hauv S&P 500 coincided nrog swb nyob rau hauv VIX, dua bucking cov keeb kwm qauv ntawm lawv tsiv nyob rau hauv opposite lus qhia.
Lub unwinding ntawm hedging tshem tawm ib qho kev lag luam kev txhawb nqa thiab qhib lub qhov rooj rau ntau volatility, raws li Danny Kirsch, lub taub hau ntawm kev xaiv ntawm Piper Sandler & Co.
Nws tau hais tias "Tam sim no qhov kev tshwm sim tau dhau mus, kev ua lag luam muaj kev ywj pheej txav mus ntxiv," nws hais. "Thiab qhov kev ua tiav ntawm qhov siab dua-rau-ntev Fed tau teeb tsa, ntxiv rau qhov muaj peev xwm ntawm kev lag luam rov qab xyoo tom ntej."
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